Actor profiles

The dominant external military and diplomatic power in the Middle East, with treaty allies on all sides of the region's major fault lines.

Regional power with the largest missile and drone arsenal in the Middle East, a contested nuclear programme, and an alliance system built primarily on non-state armed partners.

Regional military power with a stated nuclear-ambiguity policy, intelligence services with documented operations against Iranian assets, and the closest US security partnership in the region.

Iran's largest oil customer and a major arms-component supplier; not a security guarantor. Stake in regional stability is primarily economic.

Iran's most operationally aligned major-power partner; supplier of weapons technology and political cover at the UN Security Council.

Permanent UN Security Council member; major naval presence in the Gulf; close US ally with independent regional history.

Iran's principal Sunni regional rival; major oil exporter; security partner of the US; normalised relations with Iran in 2023 under Chinese mediation.

Gulf state with the most diversified foreign policy in the region; signatory to the Abraham Accords; significant economic relationship with Iran.

Host of the largest US air base in the region (Al Udeid); major LNG exporter; principal regional mediator with Iran, Hamas, and Taliban.

Border state with both Iran and US forces on its soil; political environment shaped by Iran-aligned militia presence under the Popular Mobilization Forces umbrella.

Long-time Iranian ally hosting IRGC and Hezbollah infrastructure; site of regular Israeli strikes on Iran-aligned assets.

Houthi-led de facto authority in northern Yemen; operator of the Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb interdiction campaign; Iran-aligned but operationally independent.

Major economic bloc, JCPOA party, and the principal Western voice for diplomatic preservation of the nuclear architecture.

Collective-defence alliance; the institutional frame for US-European coordination during regional crises.

Forum for state-level coordination, sanctions decisions (via Security Council), and humanitarian operations.

Lebanese Shia armed political movement; Iran's most capable non-state partner; the regional precision-missile and rocket arsenal Israel watches most closely.

Iran's parallel military, distinct from the regular army (Artesh); operator of the country's external proxy network via the Quds Force.

UN-affiliated nuclear safeguards body; the standard external reference for Iranian enrichment levels and inspection access.