States

United Arab Emirates

Gulf state with the most diversified foreign policy in the region; signatory to the Abraham Accords; significant economic relationship with Iran.

Role in conflict

The UAE balances close security cooperation with the US, normalised relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, and one of the largest non-sanctioned trading relationships with Iran. Dubai is a major commercial channel for Iranian trade, including some sanctions-evading flows. Abu Dhabi's strategic logic is to be too useful to all sides to be targeted by any.

Objectives

Avoid being a target in Iran-US or Iran-Israel escalation
Maintain trade channels with Iran while preserving US partnership
Economic diversification anchored in financial services, logistics, and AI
Regional de-escalation diplomacy

Red lines

Houthi strikes on UAE territory
The 2022 Abu Dhabi attacks established a low threshold for retaliation.

Constraints

Small population and indigenous force structure
Trade relationship with Iran limits how aggressive the public posture can be

Allies

saudi-arabia
united-states
israel

Opponents

houthis