States
China's role in the Iran-Gulf crisis is shaped by three factors: it is the largest single buyer of sanctioned Iranian crude, it is a treaty partner of Iran under the 25-year cooperation agreement, and it brokered the 2023 Saudi-Iran normalisation. It is also the largest external trade partner of every Gulf state and depends on Hormuz for a substantial share of imported energy. Beijing's preferred outcome is stability without US success — it neither wants regional war nor wants to underwrite a US-led security architecture.
Sustained Hormuz disruption
Material disruption to Chinese energy imports would shift Beijing's diplomatic activity sharply.
US regime-change against Iran
Direct US action to topple the Iranian regime would be opposed publicly and through UNSC mechanisms.