Russia

Role in conflict

Russia and Iran are operationally aligned in Syria, where they coordinated against the anti-Assad opposition for nearly a decade, and the alignment has deepened since 2022 with Iranian drone and short-range missile transfers to Russia for use in Ukraine. Moscow provides political cover for Iran at the UN Security Council and has supplied air-defence components and some advanced military technology. The alignment is closer than the "axis" framing suggests but is constrained by Russia's commitments in Ukraine.

Objectives

• Frustrate US-led sanctions and isolation efforts against Iran
• Secure ongoing Iranian military supply (drones, missile components)
• Maintain access to Syrian basing (Khmeimim, Tartus)
• Drive a higher oil price floor through regional tension

Constraints

• Ukraine war absorbing the majority of military-industrial output
• Sanctions on the Russian financial system limit transactional flexibility
• Limited Mediterranean and Gulf naval presence