States
Saudi Arabia is the largest Arab economy and one of the world's principal oil exporters; the Iran-Saudi rivalry has shaped proxy conflicts in Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria for over a decade. The 2023 Beijing-brokered restoration of diplomatic relations with Tehran has reduced — but not ended — that competition. Riyadh's current strategy combines security partnership with the US, hedging diplomacy with China and Russia, and a domestic transformation programme that requires regional stability.
Direct Iranian or Houthi strikes on critical oil infrastructure
Repeats of the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais event would force escalation.