Verification methodology

Status definitions

Each event or claim carries one of four statuses:

Confidence definitions

Confidence is separate from verification status. Verification asks "is the event corroborated?". Confidence asks "how strong is the evidence underneath it?".

Minimum verification thresholds

To raise an item to Verified we look for:

• At least two editorially independent reports, OR
• One report plus a primary source (satellite imagery, named official statement, court record, sanctions list entry, customs/maritime data, etc.).
• Self-coverage by both parties to the event is treated as a single side, not two independent sources.
• Wire-service syndication (one agency story republished by 30 outlets) counts as one independent source, not 30.

Triangulation standards

• Independence test.Two sources count as independent if they could plausibly have reported separately — different editorial structures, different countries of origin, different funding bases. Outlets that share owners, share a wire feed, or republish each other's stories are one source.
• Adversarial corroboration. When the same fact is reported by sources on opposing sides of a conflict (e.g. an Iranian outlet and an Israeli outlet agreeing that an incident occurred), confidence is raised. The framing they wrap around it is not.
• Primary-source weighting. A named official saying a thing on behalf of their government is a primary source for what that government is saying, not for the underlying claim being true.

How contradictions are handled

1. The contradiction itself is recorded as a fact on the event page.
2. The claim is moved to Disputed.
3. Each side's assertion is listed with its source. We do not pick a winner without evidence to do so.
4. If new evidence resolves the contradiction (e.g. an independent body issues a report), the verification status changes and the change is logged.

How casualty figures are handled

• Casualty numbers are attributed to the body issuing them (health ministry, OCHA, ICRC, IDF spokesperson, etc.) rather than presented as a site-level figure.
• We do not sum incompatible casualty figures from incompatible methodologies into a single number.
• First-24-hour numbers carry low confidence by default, regardless of source.
• Dashboards and aggregate counters use the most recent revised figures from named sources. When sources diverge by more than 20%, both ranges are shown.

How videos and images are handled

• A video alone is rarely sufficient evidence. We pair it with geolocation, time metadata, or independent reporting where possible.
• Where a video has been geolocated by an independent OSINT investigator with a traceable workflow (visible reasoning, frame analysis, sun angle, etc.), we treat that as a primary source for the location and timing.
• Pre-existing footage misattributed to a current event is downgraded immediately and the original event is corrected.

How OSINT material is handled

OSINT — open-source intelligence — includes satellite imagery, maritime tracking, aviation tracking, social media verification, sanctions records, and similar publicly available data. We treat OSINT as primary-source evidence when:

• The data is from a published, attestable source (Planet, Maxar, MarineTraffic, ADS-B Exchange, OFAC, OpenCorporates, etc.).
• The reasoning chain is traceable — a reader could reproduce the inference.
• The OSINT investigator is named and has a track record.

When claims are downgraded

• New independent evidence directly contradicts the original claim.
• The original source retracts or revises significantly.
• A more authoritative body (court, official inquiry, recognised humanitarian organisation) publishes a contrary finding.

When claims are marked outdated

Some claims start true and become wrong with time — "the strait is closed" ceases to be accurate when shipping resumes. Where this happens we mark the original claim Outdated with a pointer to the superseding event, rather than deleting it.

What "developing" means

On the homepage and in the daily briefing you may see items marked "Developing". That label means: an event is occurring now, the source picture is incomplete, the first reports are likely to be revised. Do not treat developing items as settled.