2026 Iran-Gulf Crisis Tracker
CC

Conflict intelligence

How to build a personal conflict brief

You don't need a Bloomberg terminal. A clear routine, a short source list, and a tolerance for "I don't know yet" gets most readers most of the value.

Step 1: pick a small source list

  • One wire service for breadth (Reuters, AP, AFP).
  • One outlet from each major party to the conflict (state-affiliated outlets are fine here — read them for framing, not for facts).
  • One specialist OSINT investigator with a published methodology.
  • One humanitarian organisation (ICRC, OCHA, MSF).

Step 2: skim first, read second

Skim all of them in one pass to identify which stories appear on multiple sources. Read in depth only those that survive the cross-check. This filters out 80% of single-source noise.

Step 3: distinguish what you know from what you suspect

Write down the verified pieces separately from the contested pieces. A short list of things I am confident occurred plus a separate list of things I suspect but cannot confirm beats a single mushy paragraph of everything together.

Step 4: come back tomorrow

Most first-day reporting is wrong somewhere. Revising your brief against day-two and day-three sources is the cheapest way to catch your own errors.

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