Iran (Islamic Republic of Iran)

Role in conflict

Iran's security posture is built on three pillars: (1) a deterrent missile and drone capability operated primarily by the IRGC's Aerospace Force, (2) a network of allied non-state armed groups across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories, and (3) a civilian nuclear programme with enrichment capacity at issue under the JCPOA framework. Strategic decisions are made by the Supreme Leader's office in coordination with the Supreme National Security Council; the President and Foreign Ministry handle public diplomacy.

Objectives

• Regime preservation against external regime-change pressure
• Deter a US or Israeli direct attack via threat of regional escalation
• Maintain the "axis of resistance" network as strategic depth
• Preserve the option to weaponise nuclear material without crossing the formal threshold publicly
• Sanctions relief through negotiation when leverage permits

Constraints

• Severe economic pressure from US-led sanctions and inflation
• Domestic political dissent and recurring protest cycles
• Conventional military inferiority vs US and Israeli air power
• Limited reliable conventional partners; alliance system is asymmetric

Primary sources

• Permanent Mission of Iran to the UN
• Press TV (state-affiliated)