Companies & Markets Analysis 20/05/2026: | Stockopedia | Iran-Gulf Crisis

Summary

Good morning! There has been no progress overnight when it comes to negotiations between Iran and the US, but it appears that other countries are losing patience with the situation. As a reminder, the (currently closed) Strait of Hormuz used to see one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passing through it. India has a major interest in the situation, and has created plans to send ships through the Strait imminently, with the help of the Indian Navy. But it’s not clear yet if the US and Iranian forces blockading the Strait will let these plans succeed. I expect that fees may be payable to one or both sides. In a similar vein, Bloomberg reports that some South Korean and Chinese tankers are now attempting to cross the Strait. A South Korean oil tanker called “The Universal Winner” is currently in the Strait, attempting to bring Kuwaiti oil home, just behind two Chinese vessels that may have already succeeded in crossing the Strait. While this is just a trickle of activity compared to before the war, it shows that other countries have run out of patience and are now willing to take calculated risks, to see what level of activity in the Strait is possible. Overnight market movements: The FTSE is set to open down 0.4% at 10,280 S&P 500 is unchanged at 7,360 Brent crude is down 75 cents at $107.45 UK Natural gas up at 128p per therm. The Agenda is complete. Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link. Companies Reporting |Name (Mkt Cap)||RNS||Summary||Our view (Author)| Experian (LON:EXPN) (£24bn | SR51) |Revenue +12%, pre-tax profit up 26% to $1,951m. Adj EPS +15% to 179.8c, at the upper end of expectations. Outlook: expect another year of double-digit adj EPS growth, supported by revenue growth and improved margins.| Severn Trent (LON:SVT) (£9.1bn | SR42) |Revenue +16.6%, with adj EPS up 64.5% to 184.4p. Capital investment rose by 16.7% to £1.9bn. Outlook: “Upgrading 2028 adjusted EPS outlook to at least 250p, from 224p”. Plan £2.2-2.5bn of capex in FY27.| Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) (£6.8bn | SR48) |Sales excluding Ocado Retail +1.9%, with Food +7% and Fashion, Home & Beauty -7.7%. Adj pre-tax profit -23.8% to £671.4m, with adj EPS -25.4% to 23.8p. Outlook: profit growth is expected to resume versus 24/25.| AMBER = (Graham) Ithaca Energy (LON:ITH) (£4.7bn | SR86) |Q1 production of 126 kboe/d (Q1 25: 127k boe/d), EBITDAX down 12.6% to $571m. Management reaffirms all previous guidance.| British Land (LON:BLND) (£3.9bn | SR58) |Underlying profit +5% to £294m, underlying EPS +1% to 28.9p. EPRA NTAV up 4% to 590p per share, LTV 39%. FY27 Outlook: expect FY27 EPS of at least 30.5p, underpinned by LFL rental growth at the top end of 3-5% target range.| RS (LON:RS1) (£2.9bn | SR84) |Revenue -1%, adj pre-tax profit -1% to £246m, adj EPS -1% to 38.7p - in line with expectations. “Building momentum in all regions”, gross margin improved through pricing and stock management. Outlook: “increasing confidence in delivering our medium-term financial targets”.| Energean (LON:ENOG) (£1.6bn | SR33) |Q1 EBITDAX -34% to $184m due to shutdown, production averaged 152 kboe/d since April restart, “tracking original guidance” of 140-150 kboe/d. FY26 production now expected at 130-140 kboe/d to reflect impact of shutdown. Growth plans on track.| Keller (LON:KLR) (£1.58bn | SR97) |Strong start to the year, particularly in North America, with order book of c.£1.7bn (FY25: £1.5bn). 2026 outlook in line with expectations.| Coats (LON:COA) (£1.57bn | SR85) |Revenue up -1% on an organic, constant currency basis. Continued to win market share, but footwear revenue was -1% as “customer caution persisted”. Outlook: 2026 expectations unchanged.| Integrafin Holdings (LON:IHP) (£1.12bn | SR57) |Closing FUD +18% to £77.8bn, with net inflows +14% to £2.4bn. Revenue +11% with underlying pre-tax profit +16% to £43.9m. Received c.25% share of fund inflows to adviser market. Outlook: remain on track to deliver cost guidance.| Playtech (LON:PTEC) (£1.12bn | SR75) |“We have made an excellent start to 2026, with strong trading in the first four months of the year reflecting continued momentum in regulated markets, notably the Americas and certain European markets.”| 4imprint (LON:FOUR) (£1.03bn | SR90) |“Trading results for the first four months of the year are in line with the Board's expectations. This reflects solid operational and financial performance, with Group revenue consistent with the same period in 2025.” Order intake was down 2% due to a reduction in new customers.| |M P Evans (LON:MPE) (£733m | SR97)||Indonesian Commodity Exporting (c.10.30am)||Notes today’s announcement by the Indonesian President regarding possible changes to the export of crude palm oil and other commodities. MP Evans sells all of its output locally in Indonesia but says that changes to export arrangements could have an indirect impact on prices available for the group’s output.||AMBER ↓ (Roland) [no section below]| This Reuters story suggests the Indonesian government is considering centralising control of commodity exports in order to boost state revenues and improve control over the country’s natural resources. MP Evans says it sells all of its output locally, but I guess some of it may then be exported by a third party. Full details of the changes are not yet known so the impact on market pricing is impossible to predict. Commodity producers – especially in emerging markets – always carry some political risk and this is an example of what can happen. The fact that the market has sent this stock and peer AEP Plantations (LON:AEP) down by c.25% today suggests to me that investors do have serious concerns. Until more is known I think it’s prudent to cut our view to neutral, as there’s simply no way of predicting the likely impact (if any) of this change. Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY) (£491m | SR71) |Revenue -9.7%, adj pre-tax profit up 6.7% to £44.9m. Net cash £29.2m. Outlook: two new Sarah J Maas novels due in 2026/27, pre-orders “exceptional”. Strong confidence in recently upgraded expectations.||GREEN ↑ (Roland)| I’m upgrading this to be fully positive to reflect March’s upgrade and the improved profitability of the Academic & Professional division. I would like more disclosure on the contribution of inorganic growth, but the long-term growth record of this founder-led business leads me to give Bloomsbury the benefit of the doubt. With the company’s two top authors likely to enjoy new momentum this year, I think it’s fair to take a positive view. Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI) (£411m | SR67) |“Integration of recently acquired portfolios and active asset management continue to drive income growth and underpin fully covered dividend”. Q4 EPRA EPS of 1.5p, Q4 dividend of 1.5p.| Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) (LON:MAB1) (£310m | SR58) |Mortgage applications in the first 19 weeks of 2026 +15% year-on-year, in line with the Board’s expectations.| Science (LON:SAG) (£243m | SR96) |Remains on track to deliver performance in line with expectations in 2026, despite “widely-reported challenges in UK defence contracting”. Considering a potential increase in the return of capital to shareholders.| Integrated Diagnostics Holdings (LON:IDHC) (£241m | SR70) |Q1 revenue +31%, with adj net profit +36% to EGP214m. Branch network at 794 branches, from 641 at 31 March 2025.| Essentra (LON:ESNT) (£233m | SR37) |Trading in line with expectations, full year outlook unchanged. Acquired Boteco, a manufacturer of mechanical components, for up to €9.9m (between 6.5x and 8.7x EBITDA).| S&U (LON:SUS) (£226m | SR75) |“... the turnaround in our fortunes which began last year continues apace. Trading in the first quarter of 2026/27 remains healthily above budget.”| Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas (LON:ECO) (£204m | SR31) |Navitas has taken a 37.5% working interest in Block 1 CBK and will become operator. Eco will receive $4m and up to $7.5m in carry for a planned work programme.| Mkango Resources (LON:MKA) (£180m | SR10) |Asset purchase agreement with Heraeus Amloy Technologies GmbH, to acquire its Remloy rare earth magnet recycling business for €8 million (US$9.4 million) in cash. €5m upfront and €3m after two years.| Stelrad (LON:SRAD) (£172m | SR84) |“Stelrad's trading in 2026 to date is in line with management expectations and the Group's full year outlook is unchanged from that given at the full year results on 13 March 2026.”| Knights group (LON:KGH) (£149m | SR62) |Revenue +28%. Organic growth improved to double digits in H2, so full-year organic growth was in line with expectations. Underlying EBITDA +19% to c. £51m. Net debt £65m after spending £17m on acquisitions.| Strategic Minerals (LON:SML) (£143m | SR38) |Revenues from Cobre were $4.2m, the second highest levels since 2017. “Profit before tax reduced to $0.7m from $2.1m primarily due to a non-cash share based payment expense ($0.6m), reduced Cobre profits ($0.3m), costs associated with the Board restructuring and increased Group wide activity levels…”| Impax Asset Management (LON:IPX) (£131m | SR77) |Net outflows £3.6bn. AUM falls from £26.1bn (Sep 2025) to £22.3bn (March 2026). Adjusted operating profit £11.3m (H1 2025: £20.5m). Cash reserves £46m. “We recognise that this has been a disappointing Period for Impax shareholders, but we continue to have strong conviction in Impax's resilience and long-term potential.”||AMBER/RED = (Graham - I hold) | In the short-term, I think AMBER/RED (a moderately negative stance) continues to make sense. The very severe profit warning occurred only last month, continuing the trend of disappointment. Today’s interim report, while not resulting in any real change to the headline figures, does still see a cut to the FY26 profit forecasts, after restructuring costs. On a longer-term view, I do still think this is sort of interesting. It has very high Quality and Value scores, making it a Contrarian play. Helix Exploration (LON:HEX) (£78m | SR17) |First revenue-generating helium sales arrangement secured, marking the Company's commercial debut in the helium market following the commencement of production at Rudyard on 23 February 2026. “...a defining moment for Helix as a company.”| Home Reit (LON:HOME) (£76m | SR15) |Loss £18m. Net revenues £7.9m. NAV decreased from £161m (August 2025) to £143m (Feb 2026). NAV falls 11% to 18.1p.| 4Basebio (LON:4BB) (£69m | SR1) Final Results & Clinical Supply Agreement to Support Phase II Clinical Trial |Revenue £1.7m, loss £16.9m. Funded into late 2027. Clinical Supply Agreement with a leading cancer immunotherapy innovator to provide GMP-grade opDNA® starting material for its latest clinical programme.| Kavango Resources (LON:KAV) (£33m | SR4) |The metallurgical testwork programme achieved its objective of defining the optimal processing design, processing parameters, and reagent consumption rates for the 50 tonnes-per-day carbon-in-leach gold processing plant at Hillside, and for a future capacity upgrade. “All processing parameters are considered to be within a normal range.”| Synectics (LON:SNX) (£31m | SR83) |EBT funded with £1.5m to satisfy future employee share-based compensation awards.| Headlam (LON:HEAD) (£29m | SR30) |Four months to April 2026: revenue down 21%, “in part a reflection of the planned reduction in certain sales activity as the business implements its new core customer strategy”. Evaluating sale and leaseback of another property. Net debt rises from £31m to £40m.| Lords Trading (LON:LORD) (£29m | SR49) |Revenue +8.3%. Adjusted PBT -26.3% (£2.8m). Actual pre-tax loss £5.2m. Net debt reduces to £13.4m. “Market conditions remain subdued in the near term, with ongoing uncertainty around inflation and interest rates. However, the Group is materially better positioned than a year ago.”| Goldplat (LON:GDP) (£26m | SR98) |Combined operating profit for the quarter of £3,855,000 excluding listing and head office costs, finance cost and FX gains/losses. CEO: "Our operations continue to deliver excellent results, albeit in an uncertain environment with numerous variables, supported by increased volumes and increasing gold price.”| Chesterfield Special Cylinders Holdings (LON:CSC) (£17m | SR74) |Revenue £6.4m (H1 FY25: £5.4m). Adjusted operating loss £1m (H1 FY25: £1.7m loss). H1 was “broadly in line”. “Profitable second half supports expected full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA at similar levels to prior year… in line with 30 April 2026 trading update.”| CT Automotive (LON:CTA) (£17m | SR52) |Revenues down 4.1%. Adjusted PBT +20.3% ($9.5m). Current trading is in line with management expectations. “...we enter FY26 with confidence in our ability to continue delivering improved performance." $47m of new wins secured in FY25 “changes the picture materially for FY27”.||AMBER/GREEN = (Roland)| A strong set of results showing a material improvement in profit margins last year despite flat revenues and a tough industry backdrop. I don’t see any real reason for this business to be trading on three times forecast earnings, although I do note some risks relating to cash flow, competitive pressures and ambiguous guidance for the year ahead. I see this as a potential opportunity, but with some speculative risk. Hence I’m leaving our AMBER/GREEN view unchanged. Fulcrum Metals (LON:FMET) (£13m | SR12) |Agrees to acquire surface rights at the Teck Hughes tailings project. Long-term access secured to key project and infrastructure areas. Price: CAD$220,000 in cash and the granting of a 1.5% Net Smelter Royalty.| Medpal AI (LON:MPAL) (£10m | SR1) |Launches New Health, a dedicated consumer sub-brand focused on the GLP-1 weight-management and broader peptide medicines market opportunity. Related party transaction: the CEO owns the domain names. In six months, the Company will have the option to acquire them.| Graham's Section Impax Asset Management (LON:IPX) Down 6% at 97.54p (£124m) - Interim Results - Graham - AMBER/RED (At the time of writing, Graham has a long position in IPX.) I wrote rather triumphantly about IG Group yesterday, so it’s only fitting that I write about this one, too. I’m down over 60% on my investment here. Thankfully, my portfolio management instincts have served me well - I only made one small starter purchase, and then never topped up on the way down. So this has only ever been a rounding error in my portfolio. Warren Buffett’s rule of investing is to “Never lose money”. I’m not quite able to manage that, but I’ve generally managed to do the second best thing: “If you do lose money, don’t lose much”! Anyway, let’s get back to Impax and see why the share price is down yet again. Please note that we already had a very large profit warning in April, which caused me to downgrade our stance on it to AMBER/RED. That profit warning was caused by persistent heavy outflows continuing into Q2. The overall H1 outflow result is predictably bad: 14% of starting AUM left the business over a six-month period. I guess it’s hard to sell environmental investing when the BP and Shell share prices are doing so well: In addition to the surging oil and mining sectors, there is also of course the constant pressure from passive funds and from the many tech-focused funds that have continued to do well. The S&P and the Nasdaq have both recently made new highs. Some figures from today’s interim report: H1 revenue down 23% to £58.8m Adjusted operating profit down 45% to £11.3m Actual PBT down 56% to £8.2m. Cash reserves are £46m. They say you should never let an investment become a deep value investment, that didn’t start out as one. Unfortunately, this is becoming that for me. Cash now covers 37% of the market cap. Estimates: thanks to Andy and Paul at Equity Development for providing continued research coverage of this. The adjusted operating profit forecasts haven’t moved much today: £14.9m for FY26 and £19.6m for FY27. However, higher redundancy and restructuring costs have been pencilled in, which causes another blow to the net income forecast for FY26: it falls from £11.1m to £8m. Prior to the April profit warning, £22m had been expected. For FY27, net income forecast is £14.3m, with an EPS forecast of 11.8p. If we are willing to value the company based on the FY September 2027 forecast, the P/E multiple on the current share price is 8.3x. If we are also willing to adjust out the cash reserves (which could be relevant in a takeover situation), the P/E multiple on the current share price falls to 5.2x. CEO comment: "Investment performance improved meaningfully from January onwards, with 70% of AUM outperforming generic indices during the calendar year to the end of April. Our active thematic listed equities strategies (which account for 62% of total AUM) have benefitted from market broadening and our portfolio managers' stock selection… We enter the second half of the year in a position of financial strength, supported by a robust balance sheet, healthy liquidity and a disciplined approach to capital and cost management. Our focus remains on delivering strong long-term outcomes for clients, maintaining operational resilience and positioning the business to benefit as conditions improve." The point about recent outperformance is important: allocators tend to follow performance and so it makes sense that heavy outflows would continue even as performance had improved. One year of outperformance might not make a huge difference, but it provides some hope that allocators might start to adjust their stance positively. Dividends & Buyback Impax is paying a reduced interim dividend of 2p (last year: 4p), “in light of the Company's lower earnings but resilient financial health”. Equity Development are forecasting 6p of dividends this year, which makes sense - a reduction of 50% on FY25. That would provide a 6% yield at the current share price, and should be covered by earnings even after this year’s restructuring costs. No new buyback is announced today, but the company notes that the previous buyback completed in December: £10m was spent buying shares at an average price of £1.80.. Graham’s view I’ll probably keep holding this as I don’t see it going to zero by any means - the balance sheet alone should put a floor on it. It’s a question of to what extent the business model is broken, with trends having moved against it financially and politically, and with customers having lost faith in its ability to outperform. In the short-term, I think AMBER/RED (a moderately negative stance) continues to make sense. The very severe profit warning occurred only last month, continuing the trend of disappointment: Today’s report, while not making any real change to the headline figures, does still see a cut to the FY26 profit forecasts, after restructuring costs. Therefore, I’m staying AMBER/RED in the short-term. On a longer-term view, I do still think this is sort of interesting. Look at the very high Quality and Value scores, making this a Contrarian play: I’ve noticed in recent months that Contrarian is my favourite style, as I’m usually open to the idea of looking past short-term momentum when making a long-term investment. However, it’s a dangerous game to add to a losing position, so I’m not going to do that just yet. In a few months, I’ll reassess. Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) Up 4% at 339.2p (£7.01bn) - Final Results - Graham - AMBER = The framing for these FY March 2026 results is “Resilient performance despite cyber incident; second half profit growth on last year”. Adjusted PBT down 23.8% to £671m (H2 grew 4%) Statutory PBT down 28.8% to £364.6m Net funds (excluding leases) of £338.2m There’s a chasm between adjusted PBT and statutory PBT: that’s thanks to nearly £300m of “adjusting items”, of which £131m are “incident-related costs”. Let’s address that incident first: As announced in April 2025, the Group was the subject of a sophisticated cyber incident. During the period the Group incurred £131.3m of material system recovery, risk management and specialist advisory costs as a direct result of the incident. £109.3m of these costs related to immediate incident systems response and recovery. Remaining charges incurred relate to third-party costs predominantly for specialist legal and professional services support. I’m not in a position to assess whether Marks is to blame for leaving itself vulnerable to this attack - my instincts are that it would be harsh to blame the company, but you can make up your own mind. For a company of this size, a £131m one-off cost can be absorbed, and the company can move on. Outlook: M&S enters 2026/27 with a clear plan and a strong balance sheet, focused on delivering further improvements to availability and service levels. Profit growth is expected to resume versus 2024/25. Food continues to drive volume growth through reinvestment in value, quality and innovation and increased new store openings. Fashion, Home & Beauty’s priority is delivering growth on the back of stronger style credentials and new supply chain capabilities. The outlook for the current year includes higher fuel, freight and input costs and continued government tax levies and regulatory headwinds for the sector. These are being mitigated through improved buying, reinvestment in value to drive volume, and savings from the structural cost reduction programme. Further progress on the transformation is anticipated in the year ahead, as M&S reinvests for growth. FY26 performance I’m not sure if it’s worth going into much detail on FY26 performance, as it was effectively ruined by the cyber attack. The £130m of direct costs are only one part of the story - there was also significant operational disruption, as anyone who attempted to use their websites at the time will know. They received a £100m insurance payout from the incident - which is included in the adjusted profit figure. On the cost front, £89m of cost reductions are “funding reinvestment and resilience” - I interpret this as a change in the cost structure, rather than a pure reduction in costs. The overall plan calls for £600m of structural cost reductions between 2022/23 and 2027/28, but again this looks like a change in what they are spending on. Example of what they are spending on: A pipeline of new, high-volume store openings Supply chain capacity Online improvements focused on search, imagery, check-out and payments Digital and technology Investments in the fashion planning platform, food warehouse management systems and e-commerce platform improvements. Estimates: Shore Capital write that “the smoke signals of the outlook comments would signal a downward move to us”. They previously forecast £955m of PBT for FY March 2027. They now reduce this to £925m (EPS 32.7p), acknowledging that “it is not especially easy to model” (and if it's not easy for them, it's not easy for anyone!). For FY March 2028, they forecast mid-single digit PBT growth to £995m (EPS 34.8p). We therefore have a P/E multiple of about 10x for a business with an encouraging net funds position, before leases. Graham’s view Perhaps this deserves an upgrade, considering the modest earnings multiple, but I consider the quality here to be very average - consistent with Stockopedia’s recent calculations.. The fact that £600m of costs can be taken out of the business over a multi-year period, and yet this does not result in massively increased profitability, only underlines this for me. Mainstream retailing is surprisingly capital-intensive, both on the ground and in terms of technology investment, and it’s difficult to earn high returns even for those who are ostensibly very successful at it. It’s a little conservative of me to stay neutral here, but I consider it fairly priced. Roland's Section CT Automotive (LON:CTA) Up 32% at 31p (£22m) - Final Results - Roland - AMBER/GREEN = As a number of you have pointed out, this automotive interior trim specialist appeared to be amazingly cheap ahead of today’s results: When Mark reviewed the company’s year-end trading update in February, he concluded: Positive business momentum and strong cash flow with a sub-3x P/E just seem like a puzzle that has to be resolved one way or another, so I am sticking with our broadly positive view of AMBER/GREEN. Today we have the full accounts for 2025 and a chance to review the situation in more detail. 2025 results summary The opening remarks from founder and CEO Simon Phillips are cautiously encouraging (my emphasis): FY25 was a year that tested the entire automotive sector, yet CT Automotive has continued to demonstrate resilience and strategic agility. Despite volatility in the market, we delivered a solid financial performance, with a third consecutive year of improved profit before tax. We strengthened margins and won the highest level of new business wins in the Company's history. The numbers reflect this commentary, with a sharp rise in profit despite a small reduction in revenue: Revenue down 4.1% to $114.8m Gross profit up 5.7% to $35.0m Gross margin: 31% (FY24: 28%) Operating margin: 9.4% (FY24: 7.3%) Adjusted pre-tax profit up 20.3% to $9.5m Earnings per share up 23.9% to 11.4 cents Net debt up 24% to $7.7m (FY24: $6.2m) The latest note I can see from house broker Singer Capital (Feb 26) shows adjusted PBT of $10.0m and EPS of 11.9 cents. So it looks like these results are a slight miss, but not enough to be of any concern. Given the valuation, I would agree with Mark’s previous view that the direction of travel here is more important than any slight variation versus forecasts. The increase in both gross margin and operating margin last year looks very creditable to me. I think it’s worth stepping through the P&L to see what underlying factors drove these results. Revenue: conditions are challenging across the automotive sector and this has been reflected in the performance of a number of UK-listed companies. Against this backdrop, today’s commentary from CT Automotive does not seem worrying to me: Production revenue declined marginally to $101.4 million (2024: $107.8 million) in part due to the macro-economic conditions and a number of programs reaching end of production in FY24. In contrast, tooling revenue rose by 12.5% to $13.4 million, up from $12.0 million in FY24, boasting a favourable margin. Continued growth in tooling ensures CT Automotive is well established for future years as those tools are used for serial production of the vehicle component. Profit: achieving a 20%+ increase in profit on flat revenue is not an easy challenge, especially for a capital-intensive manufacturer. Here’s how the company says this was achieved. Gross profit: “During 2025, we continued to focus on the integration of AI, automation, robotics and digitisation, improving our production facilities to remain one of the most technologically advanced suppliers in our industry.” This led to a 2.95% improvement in gross margin, to c.31%. Operating profit: greater automation and use of AI allowed CT to reduce its direct workforce by 9.74% in 2025, driving cost savings. The accounts show administrative expenses falling by 4.5% to $22m last year, presumably reflecting lower payroll costs. While distribution expenses rose by 9% to $2.4m, this reflected the launch of six new programs in Mexico “on a challenging time scale”. This increase is expected to unwind in 2026 and doesn’t seem a problem to me – CT’s ability to nearshore some of its operations from China to Mexico appears to be providing some degree of competitive advantage for supplying US-based manufacturers. It’s worth noting the main adjustments to profit here related to the impact of exchange rates, so in this case I think the adjusted measures are probably a good guide to underlying progress. Balance sheet & Cash Flow: operating cash flow before working capital movements was flat last year, at $14.9m (FY24: $15.2m). However, there was a working capital outflow of c.$5.5m, alongside $5.6m of capital expenditure on manufacturing capacity, mainly in Mexico. It maybe worth noting that the increase in working capital appears to reflect a move to more generous credit terms with some customers: Additionally, an increase of approximately $6.4 million in net trade receivables was primarily due to higher sales to one customer on longer credit terms in Mexico and the receivable profile changing for another major customer from 15 days to 30 days from December 2025. My sums suggest the net result was an overall free cash outflow of around $0.5m in 2025. This is one of the factors behind the $0.5m increase in net debt to $7.7m. Net debt also rose as a result of the withdrawal of invoice financing from major customer Marelli Corporation, which went into administration. While I like to see good conversion from net profit into free cash flow, this performance appears to be in line with expectations – February’s Singer note shows free cash flow turning positive from 2026 onwards. The circumstances that led to last year’s free cash outflow do suggest to me that performance could improve from hereon – assuming no further customers extend their payment terms – so I’m happy to accept this given that leverage remains modest. Accounting restatements: as we’ve mentioned previously, the CFO departed abruptly recently. Today we have details of the accounting issues that presumably led to his departure. The overall impact is limited and doesn’t affect the 2025 results: These restatements have a non-cash impact on the FY24 Financial Statements, by increasing administrative expenses by $0.8 million and reducing total net assets as at 31 December 2024 by $5.0 million, to $21.2 million. FY24 adjusted profit before tax has therefore been restated to $7.9 million (from $8.7 million). Full details of the restatements are provided in today’s results - I won’t go into details, but the impression I get is that they all relate to avoidable errors over the period 2021-2024. I guess this explains the departure of the CFO, but I don’t think there are any smoking guns here. Trading: today’s results emphasise good progress with new business wins, suggesting we should see a return to revenue growth fairly soon: These programs are expected to deliver approximately $47 million of annualised revenue when all 15 new program awards are fully operational over the next three years. The company also reminds investors of its OEM customer base, which currently stands at 21. CT says it was pre-qualified to supply two new OEMs last year, but I’m not sure if they are included in the 21. Management notes the recent gain in market share for Chinese OEMs in export markets, such as the UK. CT doesn’t supply Chinese OEMs “due to the structural characteristics of that market” but says it’s “increasingly cost-competitive” positioning means it is well positioned to help “our legacy OEM customers” cut costs across their supply chain. Outlook There are no major surprises in this statement: Trading in the first quarter of 2026 was in line with management expectations, despite ongoing market uncertainty, including the recent events in the Gulf, that are making trading conditions challenging. Input costs are increasing, but cost escalation clauses in our agreements allow these to be recovered, albeit in some cases with a time lag. The company doesn’t make any explicit comment on 2026 expectations, perhaps understandably at this early stage. However, management does appear confident of further progress: … the Board continues to expect profitability to be modestly ahead of FY25 Broker forecasts on Stockopedia prior to today suggested adjusted earnings could rise to 12.6 cents per share this year. Following this morning’s price rise, I estimate this would be equivalent to a forward P/E of 3.2. Roland’s view There are certainly some risks inherent in this business. Credit terms for some major customers appear to have been extended last year, putting cash flow under pressure. I’ve no idea if this was exceptional or if other customers are likely to follow. The growing market share of Chinese OEMs (who are far more brutal on supplier costs than European/US firms) is also a potential threat. My working assumption is that the growth of Chinese manufacturers will follow a similar path to the historic progress of first Japanese, then Korean OEMs. In other words, they will steadily gain market share and their vehicles will eventually compete on equal terms with established ‘legacy’ OEMs. If CT doesn’t feel it can compete for business with Chinese OEMs, then this could limit future growth potential. These may be issues to watch for the future, but I don’t think they are serious enough to justify pricing this business on three times forecast earnings. Today’s 30% rise will be a welcome relief for shareholders, although this still only takes the stock back to the level last seen in at the start of this year – if progress continues, I think there could be plenty more upside here: I’m holding back from taking a fully positive view today, due to the small size of this business, its short history as a listed business (2021 IPO) and the risks I’ve mentioned above. But I don’t see any reason to change our previous AMBER/GREEN view. Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY) Unch at 595p (£481m) - Preliminary Results - Roland - GREEN ↑ Bloomsbury’s share price is flat today as the good news was already in the price here following the publisher’s trading update in March, when guidance was upgraded: The big news of course was the confirmation that hit ‘romantasy’ author Sarah J Mass will be publishing two new books during Bloomsbury’s FY27 financial year: Bestselling author Sarah J. Maas has announced the publication dates of the next two novels in her A Court of Thorns and Roses ('ACOTAR') series which will be published on 27 October 2026 and 12 January 2027. In today’s results we learn that “pre-orders of our major titles are exceptional” and are also reminded that a Harry Potter television series will be launched on HBO Max at Christmas. This is expected to “bring the series to a dramatically expanded readership” since its original launch 29 years ago. The reality of publishing is that many books are unprofitable, while hit authors (like films and music) generate disproportionate profits. My belief is that Sarah J Mass and JK Rowling continue to account for a surprisingly large (but undisclosed) proportion of Bloomsbury’s consumer division profits. However, they aren’t the only game in town and the business has made efforts to grow and diversify in recent years, notably by expanding its Academic & Professional publishing business. Today’s group results highlight the benefit of this strategy, with profits up despite a slump in consumer sales: Group revenue down 10% to £325.9m Adjusted pre-tax profit up 7% to £44.9m Adj earnings per share up 8% to 44.57p Dividend up 5% to 16.2p per share Net cash: £29.2m (FY25: £17.0m) Profitability boost: revenue fell, but profits rose, flagging up a useful increase in operating margin to 10.9% (FY25: 9.2%), or 14.1% on an adjusted basis (FY25: 11.9%). This improved performance translates into a return on capital employed of 14.4% and a return on equity of 12.5% (unadjusted). Both figures are respectable if not spectacular, and are in line with past performance. Divisional results The group’s strategy in recent years has been to expand the A&P business so that its profits help to smooth out the greater volatility of the consumer business. Today’s results illustrate how this approach is starting to deliver results. Consumer Division: despite some top sellers, the consumer business was badly affected by a lack of new titles from the company’s star author Sarah J Maas: Consumer revenue down 21.4% to £218.2m Consumer adj pre-tax profit down 32.3% to £20.5m (9.4% margin) Academic & Professional: the company completed the integration of its Rowman & Littlefield acquisition last year and signed an AI licensing agreement to monetise the value of its intellectual property. Management reports “encouraging signs of recovery with good growth in all territories in the current financial year”. A&P Revenue up 29.3% to £107.7m A&P adj pre-tax profit up 100% to £25.0m (23% margin) It’s worth noting this wasn’t all organic growth. Rowman & Littlefield was acquired for £65m in May 2024, so made an increased contribution last year. Last year’s AI agreement may also have provided a material and high-margin boost. I’d consider both of these factors to be inorganic growth – it would be interesting to know how the underlying business performed excluding these one-off changes. Unfortunately, Bloomsbury doesn’t seem to disclose this information. This means it’s unclear how well acquired businesses – or legacy operations – are performing, so it’s hard to gauge how much value has been created by some past acquisitions. Outlook Today’s outlook statement is in line with expectations: Bloomsbury has a strong wider publishing list in 2026/27, including two new Sarah J. Maas novels. These led to a trading update upgrading our profit expectations for 2026/27. Pre-orders of major titles are exceptional. The Board looks to the current year with strong confidence in delivering results in line with these recently upgraded expectations. Guidance was upgraded in March so there is no logical reason to expect a further upgrade today, ahead of the publication of these exciting new titles. These forecasts leave the shares trading on a FY27 forward P/E of 13, with a possible 2.8% dividend yield. That seems quite reasonable and is at the lower end of the valuation range we’ve seen in recent years: Roland’s view I’ve long had a slightly ambivalent view about Bloomsbury. On the one hand, it is clearly a successful, founder-led business with an impressive long-term record of growth. Revenue has tripled since 2014 and today’s dividend increase marks the 31st consecutive year of growth: On the other hand, I’ve never quite been persuaded to buy the shares. This may be my mistake. But the average profitability of and dependence on a handful of hit authors. The slump in consumer division profits last year highlights what can happen when there are no big-name releases in a year. I also have some niggling concerns about the profitability of some parts of the Academic & Publishing business. This unit has made multiple acquisitions in recent years, but I don’t feel there’s much transparency on how these perform. I’d particularly like to have seen a breakdown of the 100% profit growth achieved in the A&P division last year. We’ve been AMBER/GREEN on this business in recent times, but given the scale of March’s upgrade and the improved profitability of the A&P business, I think it’s fair to move up one notch to be fully positive today. GREEN.

Perspectives

Iranian Official

Iran has maintained its sovereign right to close the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing US aggression and stalled negotiations, rejecting any compromise that undermines national security. Foreign powers, including India, South Korea, and China, are now attempting to force tanker passages with naval support, exposing their complicity in violating Iran's territorial integrity. Tehran remains resolute in its resistance, prepared to confront these calculated provocations to defend its waters and resources.

Israeli

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz represents a direct escalation by a regime pursuing nuclear breakout and regional hegemony, threatening Israel's survival through energy strangulation and emboldened proxy networks like the Houthis and Hezbollah. International tanker movements by India, China, and South Korea expose Tehran's overreach but risk triggering Iranian retaliation that could ignite multi-front attacks on the Jewish state. Israel must therefore prioritize defensive capabilities and preemptive measures to neutralize this existential threat.

Neutral

Negotiations between Iran and the US have shown no overnight progress, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to traffic. Reports indicate that Indian naval-escorted vessels and multiple South Korean and Chinese tankers, including the Universal Winner carrying Kuwaiti oil, are attempting transits, with outcomes and any associated payments unconfirmed. Overnight market data showed the FTSE set to open down 0.4 percent at 10,280, Brent crude down 75 cents at $107.45, and UK natural gas higher at 128p per therm.

Western

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to threaten global energy flows, with US and allied forces positioned to neutralize this disruption through targeted maritime enforcement. India is preparing Navy-supported transits to challenge the closure, while South Korean and Chinese tankers conduct limited passages to test operational feasibility amid stalled negotiations. These actions reflect broader strategic efforts by affected nations to restore freedom of navigation and deter Iranian interference with critical supply routes.

Sources

Graham NearyBy Graham Neary

Related events

Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US

○ 1 source

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US This is ‘the first step in permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran’, said US Vice-President J.D. Vance Tehran has agreed to invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country, US Vice-President J.

D. Vance said on Monday, after a first round of US-Iran talks towards ending the Middle East war. “The Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country,” Vance told reporters at Switzerland’s isolated Burgenstock resort, where his talks with Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf opened on Sunday.

“That is a major milestone for the American people and the first step in permanently denuclearising or permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran,” he said. The IAEA estimates that Iran had 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60 per cent – close to the level needed for a bomb.

Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA after Israel and the US launched a previous wave of attacks in June 2025, and inspectors have not seen the material since.

Agence France-Presse

Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxyEUChina

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

○ 1 source

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

Futures are modestly lower coming off the US holiday weekend, after equities finished higher last week with both Dow and Russell clocking new ATHs and SPX finishing in the green for the 11th time in the last 12 weeks. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures edged down 0.1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts are higher by 0.1% with chips outperforming as usual while hyperscalers, aka "check payers" down as all Mag 7 are lower with TSLA (-1.4%) and GOOGL (-1.6%; Google’s DeepMind VP John Jumper is leaving the company to join Anthropic) being the biggest laggards. Overseas, Asian markets mostly higher overnight with China and Japan the big gainers, up over 1.5%. European markets higher, up ~0.3%. Big development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Donald Trump again threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel, & US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In the UK, PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. Bond yields are 2-4bp higher, while the USD is largely unchanged. WTI crude fell $-0.58 to $75.27 reversing all earlier gains while Brent traded around $79. Gold and silver are higher as is bitcoin. There is little on the corporate calendar and scant macro data, leaving traders with little direction until Micron’s earnings due Wednesday and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Thursday take center stage. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

In premarket trading, SpaceX shares slid more than 5% in premarket trading, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. Meanwhile, the semi meltup continues: chipmakers including Intel rallied. Getty Images soared more than 300% after inking a display partnership with ChatGPT owner OpenAI. Here are the notable premarket movers:

Alphabet (GOOGL) -1.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -1.3%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.9%, Apple (AAPL) -0.8%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.4% Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) climbs 48% after AbbVie agreed to buy the company for $10.9 billion to bolster its anti-inflammatory portfolio amid growing competition for its best-selling drug. Arcosa (ACA) gains 7% after CRH said it has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of the provider of building materials in an all-cash transaction for $150 per share. Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) gains 32% after announcing positive topline results from a Phase 3 study evaluating a single dose of an orally disintegrating tablet in adults with major depressive disorder. Fervo Energy (FRVO) gains 8% after the geothermal-energy company agreed with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Nvidia to develop a digital twin platform for Enhanced Geothermal Systems technology. Getty Images (GETY) soars 156% after the company announced a display partnership With OpenAI. Regenxbio (RGNX) climbs 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the FDA has agreed to reverse the rejection of the firm’s rare-disease drug. SpaceX (SPCX) is down 5%, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. A peppering of M&A and ECM news is spicing up an otherwise quiet Monday morning. Budget airline EasyJet has rejected three offers by US private credit giant Castlelake. AbbVie is closing in on a nearly $11 billion deal to buy inflammatory disease drug developer Apogee Therapeutics, according to the FT, which also reports that building materials group Arcosa could be close to a takeout by larger rival CRH. SpaceX kicked off its debut US dollar high-grade bond offering expected to be at least $25 billion.

The big geopolitical development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Oil traders took comfort from evidence of progress in Middle East talks even as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran if Hezbollah militants continue to attack Israel. Vance said the warring sides set up a mechanism to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, while Iran agreed to invite nuclear inspectors.

“Even during the midst of the conflict in the Middle East, equities still priced a positive outcome,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “It seems logical that markets don’t rally too hard on something which they had already priced to a fair degree.”

Traders also followed the latest developments in UK politics as Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. The departure of Starmer is putting Britain on course for its seventh premier in a decade and paving the way for Andy Burnham to replace him. The former mayor of Manchester announced his candidacy hours after Starmer’s resignation and received the backing of Wes Streeting, a potential rival. Starmer said nominations for a new Labour leader will open July 9 and that a contest will be finalized by Sept. 1. The question for investors is about the impact on the UK’s finances if Burnham were to become prime minister. A slew of all-but-forgotten niche option positions betting on an oil glut are coming back into play as crude cools.

“Markets would be watching for Burnham’s pick of Chancellor,” wrote Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “The fear is that Burnham’s policies are left-leaning and if the new chancellor is not credible, it would raise concerns over deficits and borrowing.”

The AI trade still works and investors should keep it, say Goldman Sachs traders in charge of thematic investing, baskets and equity structuring.

In geopolitics, China has imposed export controls against US rare earth firms, in response to the Pentagon’s accusations against some of China’s biggest companies supporting the Chinese military.

Meanwhile, Trump’s administration is rolling out new tools with the same protectionist goals after the Supreme Court ruled his sweeping global tariffs to be illegal. The rising cost of living, and corruption, are shaping up to be major campaign battlefronts in races that will determine control of the US Congress.

Bond traders, recently forced to reposition for the possibility of higher interest rates ahead, are looking to Thursday’s US personal consumption expenditures price index for a read on whether the market’s hawkish stance is warranted. Forecasters expect the index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, to show acceleration on both a monthly and year-over-year basis in May. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is due to speak later on Monday. Bloomberg Economics’ head Anna Wong expects a hot PCE reading will likely reinforce the hawkish tilt by the Fed at its June meeting.

Ahead of Micron’s earnings, a leveraged ETF linked to rival SK Hynix is lifting an option cap. Rising leverage is also showing up in FINRA’s margin debt statistics, and the Roundhill DRAM ETF has recorded 19 straight days of inflows and AUM surpassed $20 billion. Micron’s fiscal 3Q revenue may exceed consensus by about 13% and guidance by 18%, notes BI.

European stocks struggled to derive much benefit with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1%, with construction and media stocks leading declines, while technology and energy shares are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

Infineon shares rise as much as 5.3%, after CFO Sven Schneider maintained his bullish stance on the chipmaker’s growth over the next few years, while Bernstein increased its price target for the stock EasyJet shares rise as much as 5.4% to the highest level in almost a year after the British budget carrier rejected a third takeover proposal from US investment firm Castlelake BioArctic jumps as much as 10%, the most in more than four months, after the Swedish biopharma company signed a research and collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly for its BrainTransporter technology LISI gains as much as 7.6%, reaching a record high, as Berenberg initiates on the component maker with a buy rating, citing entrenched positions in automotive and aerospace fasteners Sanofi shares slip as much as 2.1%, making them the biggest laggard by index points in the Stoxx 600’s healthcare subgroup on Monday morning Babcock shares fall as much as 5.7%, the most since February, as the defense contractor posts full-year results UBS shares are slide as much as 0.6%, falling for a second straight session after being downgraded at Zuercher Kantonalbank on valuation grounds, with the Swiss bank having hit a fresh 2008-high last Thursday Asian stocks surged to a record as chipmakers and other artificial intelligence-linked firms rallied amid optimism surrounding US-Iran peace talks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, with information technology the top performing sector. Markets in Taiwan, mainland China and Japan led regional gains. Continued interest in AI and semiconductor plays drove Taiwan’s benchmark to a record high. South Korea’s memory maker SK Hynix also rose to an all-time high on expectations over its planned ADR listing, helping to erase earlier losses in the Kospi gauge. Meanwhile, equities in Hong Kong underperformed, as weak consumption data weighed on sentiment and investors chased the AI rally elsewhere. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in the city was headed for a bear market before trimming some losses.

“We continue seeing liquidities leaving ‘old Techs’ in Hong Kong including Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu to chase AI-related stocks in Japan, Korea and Taiwan,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian.

In FX, the pound is down a handful of pips near its year-to-date low. The yen is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.3% against the greenback.

In rates, treasuries decline, pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.48% as trading resumes after Friday’s US cash-market holiday. US yields are 2bp-4bp higher on the day with losses led by front-end tenors, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s by 0.5bp and 1.5bp respectively. 10-year around 4.48% is cheaper by 3bp with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 5bp and 6.5bp. European bonds outperform led by gilts after Wes Streeting backed Andy Burnham to be new UK Prime Minister, removing a key uncertainty after Keir Starmer’s resignation. Oil trades lower on signs of diplomatic headway between the US and Iran. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few items so far. Dealers forecast about $50 billion of US investment-grade bond sales this week, likely to include a jumbo bond offering from SpaceX. Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with $69 billion 2-year notes, followed by 5- and 7-year note sales Wednesday and Thursday

In commodities, Brent crude futures fall 1.6% after Iran said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the US. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% near session lows after US Vice President Vance says Hormuz is open and talks with Iran have made progress. Precious metals advance, with spot silver rising 2%.

US event calendar: US economic data calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

The U.S. and Iran made progress during talks in Switzerland on Monday toward reaching a final deal within 60 days, including the agreement to establish a committee and a mechanism to end hostilities in Lebanon. CNBC The US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. BBG UK PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation and outlined plans for a successor to take office by September. The move clears the way for Andy Burnham to become Britain’s seventh PM in a decade. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting said he backed Burnham to become PM. The pound hovered near its weakest level of the year while gilts were little changed. BBG China announced on Monday that it will add 10 American firms to its export control list, including two rare earth firms, while also restricting 46 US firms from government procurement, signalling it would respond to Washington’s recent expansion of a military blacklist, even amid a broader stabilization of bilateral ties. SCMP South Korea’s exports jumped again in early June, thanks to AI fueling a sustained boom in the semiconductor sector. BBG Chevron signed a 20-year deal with Microsoft to supply natural-gas fired power to a planned West Texas data center that may become one of the largest in the US. BBG Semis are on pace to finish as the most net bought global subsector for a second straight year, with net allocations now at record highs. GS Prime Brokerage Major investors warned that Fed Chair Warsh’s push to axe the Fed’s guidance on the direction of monetary policy could increase volatility in the Treasury market and drive borrowing costs higher: FT. Hong Kong is in talks with Chinese authorities to expand cross-border investment channels and grant mainland buyers access to local IPOs. BBG Colombia elected Trump ally Abelardo de la Espriella president by a razor-thin margin. The preliminary result was immediately challenged by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, who backed rival candidate Senator Iván Cepeda. BBG US Secretary of State Rubio congratulates Colombia's presidential candidate De la Espriella who leads against leftist rival Cepeda following the Colombian election. Democrats are set to make corruption a major campaign battlefront in the midterms as polling suggests voters are eager to see lawmakers take on conflicts of interest and self-enrichment by leaders. BBG US Southern Command announces that Task Force Southern Spear has conducted a strike on a vessel operated by designated terrorist organisations in the Caribbean. US Secretary of State Rubio plans trip to the Middle East next week: Kuwait, UAE and Bahrain at the moment: Axios US President Trump told Axios that he doesn’t see Anthropic PBC as a national security threat, despite his administration recently taking steps to cut off foreign access to the tech company’s most advanced AI models. Furthermore, Trump said that it was seen as a threat last week, but relations have improved since with the AI giant. US Department of Agriculture announced three new cases of screwworm to take the total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iran Headlines: Latest News

US and Iran talks opened in Switzerland on Sunday after US VP Vance arrived in Switzerland and the Iranian delegation led by chief negotiator Ghalibaf, which included Foreign Minister Araghchi, arrived on Saturday, while Pakistan’s Premier Sharif and military chief Munir travelled to Switzerland to join the US-Iran talks. Iran's delegation reportedly left the negotiation site in protest against statements by US President Trump, while Fars also reported that Iran halted talks with the US after Trump threatened strikes over Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon. Iran said Trump’s threat is a blatant violation of the MoU and halted talks in Switzerland, while it is reviewing a response to Trump’s threats. However, sources cited by Al Hadath later stated that the Iranian delegation had not left the negotiation headquarters at the Burgenstock resort and the Iranian delegation head discussed a joint statement draft with mediators. US President Trump threatened to resume bombing and take over the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is not reached, while Trump said the US may take tolls if it has to and that he has a 60-day option, in which he can do whatever after it. Trump stated he spoke with Iranian officials and used expletive language in the call with Iranian officials on Hormuz, as well as threatened that they won’t have a country if Hormuz is closed, according to Fox. US President Trump posted that Iran must immediately stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble, or else the US would hit Iran very hard again, “just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Trump separately commented that there will be no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, unless they are imposed by the US. UKMTO reported an incident in which a cargo vessel was approached by a craft with six armed persons onboard 92 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Mukalla in the Gulf of Aden. Israeli army chief said the Lebanon ceasefire is fragile and forces remain ready for combat. Israeli military convoy reportedly entered southern Syria’s Quneitra region, near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Qatar and Pakistan issue joint statement on conclusion of US-Iran talks in Switzerland, while Qatar said first session of the US-Iran high level talks has concluded and that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere. said:. Technical talks are to continue for remainder of the week. US and Iran agreed to de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Encouraging progress has been made, including creation of a mechanism for further technical talks. Parties agree to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. High-level committee agrees on roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days. "The negotiations of the main Iranian delegation in Switzerland have ended, however, experts are still in Switzerland and are following up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding", Tasnim reported citing sources. Iranian negotiating team member said executive procedures about the release of Iranian frozen funds have taken place with the Qatari delegation and that a draft has been finalised regarding waivers of Iranian oil sanctions, which will be issued soon, although negotiations about other subjects will not take place if the war does not end in Lebanon. "No negotiations have taken place on the nuclear file so far", Tasnim reported citing a source. US diplomat said talks included robust discussions on a nuclear deal and enforcing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, while talks also involved clarifying the messaging on the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, a US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, and that mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Pakistani Army Chief said negotiating parties reached success stage, according to Al Arabiya. US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, adds mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Sources cited by Al Arabiya said an anticipated statement will be issued by the Iranian and American negotiators and the mediators. Sources cited by Al Hadath stated that the Iranian delegation has not left the negotiation headquarters at the Bürgenstock resort and Iranian delegation head discusses joint statement draft with mediators. Tasnim reported Iranian delegation refused to return to negotiations but message exchanges continue through intermediaries. Iranian Commentary:

Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted Pakistani and Qatari mediation delivered major progress to end Lebanon War, oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran. Iran's Foreign Ministry said the technical team is to continue work, but negotiation delegation work has concluded, adds significant progress achieved in quadrilateral talks in Switzerland. Spokesman said groundwork for starting negotiations for the final agreement was discussed. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is working on safe passage mechanism for Hormuz and that Iran reported progress on oil sales and asset unfreezing, adds the war in all fronts, including Lebanon, must end. Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said the US is responsible for Israel's actions in Lebanon and Iran will hold the US accountable in the event of a threat against Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi to lead the technical team in Switzerland, Sky News Arabia reported. Iran resumed oil loading from Kharg Island after about a six-week halt, following the lifting of the US blockade of its ports. Lebanon/Israel:

Al Jadeed News cites Haaretz source stating the Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the Blue Line in Lebanon. Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the yellow line (buffer zone), Al Jazeera reported, citing Israel's Haaretz sources. Israeli Foreign Minister Saar told his New Zealand counterpart, "Israel will respect the ceasefire in Lebanon as long as it won’t be breached by Hezbollah.". Israeli political and security cabinet will convene on Thursday amid US-Iran talks, N12 reported. Israeli officials are dismissing reported of an agreement to withdraw from certain points in southern Lebanon, amid a lack of US pressure to do, Maariv's Barsky reported. Officials add, "because in Washington they understand the Israeli position: no partial withdrawal, no point-specific withdrawal, and no diplomatic 'gesture'.". And, "as long as the Hezbollah threat persists, there is no change in the deployment of forces and no intention to relinquish the security positions in southern Lebanon.". Lebanese presidency discussed the issue of consolidating the ceasefire in Lebanon, in a call with Qatari PM and US's Vance. Other:

Two South Korean vessels were said to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran signed a ceasefire MoU. Three India-linked supertankers re-emerged in the Gulf of Oman, which suggests an increase in traffic through the waterway. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with price action choppy following the recent conflicting headlines concerning US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, as the Iranian delegation was said to have walked out of talks following Trump's renewed threats to resume bombing them if a deal is not reached and if they don't stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. However, the reports that gradually followed were more encouraging as mediators stated that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere and technical talks are to continue for the remainder of the week, with the US and Iran agreeing to a de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Furthermore, the parties agreed to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation and on a roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days, while Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed that mediation delivered major progress to end the Lebanon war, as well as stated that oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade is lifted, frozen assets released, and that a major reconstruction and development plan was launched for Iran. ASX 200 struggled for direction as strength in gold miners and financials was offset by weakness in tech, energy and defensives. Nikkei 225 extended on record highs and rallied firmly above the 72,000 level as exporters benefited from a weaker currency and a pullback in oil, although the index has pared some of the gains, but comfortably remained the outperformer. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid a divergence between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, in which the latter took over the throne as South Korea’s largest Co. by market cap. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with sentiment not helped by trade frictions after China added 10 US firms to its export control list and announced to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities, while there was a lack of surprises from the announcement that the benchmark Loan Prime Rates were maintained for a 13th consecutive month.

Top Asian News

The Japanese Government is reportedly planning to deploy JPY 68tln in public and private funding for the semiconductor sector by FY 2040, TV Asahi reported citing sources. Australia's Agricultural Minister said testing has confirmed H5 bird flu detected in a second bird found in Western Australia. China's Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said risk of fragmented supply chains is growing and that some countries abuse use of export controls, adds China is anchor of stability and propeller of the global economy. said: Can work with all sides to build inclusive supply chains. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary, but declines to comment on particular forex rates. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) began the session on a muted footing, as markets digest the volatile geopolitical situation (see above). European sectors began the session mixed. Tech tops the pile with ASML +1.5% after it denied shipping EUV lithography machines, or any related component, to China, following US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s accusations. Citi this morning wrote “we find it very hard to believe that they would jeopardise their position in the industry”. The sectoral laggard is Construction, one of its largest constituents Holcim -1.0% (9% weighting), after RBC downgraded Holcim’s PT, citing the completion of the acquisition of Xella and an update to Q2 results model

Top European News

UK PM Starmer announces he will step down; nominations for Labour leader will open on 9th July, conclude by end-summer; will act as caretaker until new leader elected. Will fully support whoever takes over. UK PM's Chief of Staff resigns, New Statesman reported. UK Minister Smith said "I would have been very happy for him to continue", in reference to PM Starmer. UK Foreign Minister Cooper urges UK PM Starmer to resign, according to Sky News. Ireland said EU capital markets deal is possible by year end, according to FT. Italian PM Meloni called out US President Trump for “senseless”, “constant, unprovoked attacks”, while she said that Trump’s statements are completely made up and she doesn’t know why he behaves like this towards allies, after Trump told an Italian TV channel that Meloni begged him to take a picture with her and that he wouldn’t have taken it, but he felt sorry for her. Furthermore, Trump criticised Italy and its PM for not becoming involved with Iran and its nuclear threat. FX

DXY is firmer against all peers as it stabilises towards recent highs above 100. JPY is the underperformer after unsuccessful jawboning attempts, NOK holds on to gains after crude gapped higher at the re-open. USD-specific drivers are light, focus overnight was on geopolitics with US-Iran talks over the weekend whipsawing crude benchmarks. The main data point this week is PCE on Thursday, the session today sees remarks from Fed's Waller, aside from this, the session is likely to be quiet and driven by geopolitical moves in oil/yields. DXY gapped higher at the APAC re-open and rose throughout the European morning to a peak of 101.01. Since this peak, the index has slipped and now more towards the unchanged mark. UK PM Starmer announces he will step down, remaining as a caretaker until a new leader is elected (Nominations begin on 9th July). Burnham is overwhelmingly considered as the front-runner, with GBP and Gilts seeing underperformance in recent weeks. There was no reaction to the announcement from Starmer himself, as it had been widely touted in recent days/weeks, especially following Burnham's convincing victory in the Makerfield by-election. Given Burnham is nearly certain to become the next PM, focus is on his cabinet appointments, specifically his Chancellor pick. Over the weekend, the FT and Times made it clear that Miliband would be the least market friendly, citing comments from FTSE 100 executives; retaining Reeves would be the most market-friendly option, though the same outlets noted Burnham would likely want to remove the current Chancellor in a shift away from the last administration. GBP/USD -0.1% and tracking the stronger Buck. EUR/GBP +0.1%, gapped higher at the APAC re-open, but reversed most gains. JPY continues to underperform and moves further into intervention territory as USD/JPY looks towards 161.81 highs made last week. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires overnight, said they were “ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary”; not sparking a move in the Yen. USD/JPY marked a session high of 161.78, looking to the aforementioned levels to the upside; awaiting further comments from Japanese officials. South African Parliamentary Speaker Didiza plans to support President Ramaphosa’s bid to halt his impeachment proceedings. Central Banks

Japan's PM Takaichi said expect BoJ to closely coordinate with the government and conduct a monetary policy appropriately to achieve the 2% price goal. BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said takes some time for policy to have an impact on the economy. said:. Pass-through from oil prices to downstream goods has progressed somewhat rapidly. Recent easing of Middle East tensions doesn't deviate much from their April outlook. Accommodative conditions are expected to continue. Risks of price overshoot could materialise if there is a delay in the necessary adjustment in the degree of monetary easing. Will closely monitor impacts that raising policy interest rates may have on businesses and households. ECB's Escriva warns that rising oil and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict are feeding into consumer prices and could cause wage spillovers. said energy cost increases are already transmitting through areas such as transport services. ECB must monitor possible second-round wage effects depending on inflation persistence. Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%). Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%). SNB adjusts remuneration of sight deposits; lowering threshold factor from 15 to 13.5; effective August 1st 2026. Fixed Income

Fixed benchmarks are mixed. USTs in the red by around 10 ticks, but off a 109-07 trough by another five. USTs lower as a function of catch-up from the holiday session on Friday, and as the complex acknowledged the gap higher in energy at the resumption of trade after Iran seemingly shut Hormuz transit amid ongoing conflict in Lebanon. However, the updates from negotiators thereafter and as technical talks take place this week in Switzerland, points that allowed energy to retreat and gave relief to EGBs. USTs look ahead to remarks from Fed’s Waller. Bunds, as above, benefited from the energy retreat in the second half of the APAC session and are firmer by around 10 ticks, but a similar amount shy of the 126.34 high. Specifics light for the complex, no move to ECB commentary thus far, and we now await text from Lagarde at the ECON hearing. Additionally, Germany digests reports into another meeting of the pensions committee today. The main point from it being that the retirement age will increase, though not at the pace some have been seeking. More broadly, Politico reports budget progress, however, tax reform remains the major outstanding point. Last but not least Gilts, lower by 10 ticks and a similar amount of the low in 88.30-72 confines after gapping higher by 24 ticks, seemingly taking relief from numerous reports that the team around Burnham no longer saw Miliband as the favourite for Chancellor. Since, PM Starmer has resigned. He will serve as caretaker during the process which begins in three weeks and will last for no more than one week, 9th-16th July. Burnham is the clear favourite. However, the three weeks between now and the start of that process could potentially see the odds around Burnham and theoretical rivals, i.e. Streeting, change notably. Geopolitics

A very busy geopolitical weekend, which initially saw the Iranians shut the Strait of Hormuz, and it suggested that the US and Israel broke the interim ceasefire agreement amid the continued military strikes on southern Lebanon. This led Brent Aug’26 to gap higher by c. USD 2/bbl, to a session peak of USD 82.30/bbl. Attention then turned to US-Iran talks in Switzerland. The outcome of the initial talks were positive. A Qatari and Pakistani joint statement stated that US and Iran agreed to set up a de-confliction cell over Lebanon and agreed to establish a high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. The high-level committee also agreed to a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days. Following the positive mood music from the talks, Brent Aug’26 gradually moved off best levels and turned negative; currently lower by c. 1.1%, and at the bottom end of a USD 78.58-82.30/bbl range. Attention remains on further developments on the negotiation process, which is expected to continue throughout the week. For now, the heads of the delegation team have headed back to Iran, while technical teams will remain in Switzerland to follow up the implementation of the MoU. Spot gold (+0.8%) is in the green, benefiting from the disinflationary implications of the positive geopolitical mood music. XAU/USD is currently holding within a USD 4136-4221/oz range. On analyst commentary: Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40T a month in 2027. Base metals are broadly firmer this morning vs a mostly negative APAC session. Focus overnight remained on China adding US firms to its export control list and decided to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. 3M LME Copper currently resides within a USD 13,598.28-13,736.93/t range. "Confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone rose sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 total transits recorded", Kpler's Bakr reported. Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50 T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40 T a month in 2027. US Department of Agriculture announces three new cases of screwworm to take total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iraq asked operators of five major oil fields to boost output to pre-war levels, targeting output of more than 3mln bpd, while it was separately reported that Iraq intends to gradually increase oil production to between 4.2mln-4.3mln bpd, according to the deputy oil minister for upstream affairs. Qatar’s Interior Ministry reported an internal explosion at a factory in the Ras Laffan Industrial Area, although no injuries or leaks were reported. A fire occurred in Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery (631k bpd) but was extinguished. Guinea’s President Doumbouya announced a ban on raw gold exports, in an effort to boost local processing of the metal and help the domestic economy. Trade/Tariffs

Iranian delegation is set to travel to Tehran after talks in Switzerland. India's Trade Minister said they intend to secure preferential market access via a trade agreement with the US. Signing of a US-India trade agreement will take longer than expected, because the US initially imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods. China's MOFCOM issues action plan on strengthening foreign Investment; to support qualified key foreign firms listing on domestic exchanges. China added 10 US firms to its export control list including USA Rare Earths, while the Finance Ministry announcing to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. USTR Greer is to travel to India and Uzbekistan, while he will discuss the US-India joint statement as part of bilateral trade agreement talks. US Event Calendar

9:00 am: Fed’s Waller Delivers Opening Remarks DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For those in Europe and parts of the US this week I hope you can cope with the expected extreme heat. The UK is certainly not ready for what's about to hit us. I'm looking to exploit this and set up my own AI company. Aircon Installations. Please enquire for the best prices and for the IPO launching soon!

Talking of extreme heat, the latest developments out of the Middle East have turned more constructive after a highly volatile start to the weekend. Encouraging progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, has seen both sides agree overnight to a roadmap towards a potential deal within 60 days, alongside the creation of technical working groups, a de conflict mechanism covering Lebanon, and a direct communication line aimed at avoiding incidents and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. This marks a notable shift from Saturday’s confusion, when Iran suggested the strait was now closed again after Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and briefly stepped back from talks following renewed threats from President Trump, who reiterated that the US would strike again if Iranian-backed proxies in Lebanon continue attacks on Israel. Despite that rhetoric, oil flows through Hormuz have continued and even picked up over the weekend, helping to calm markets, with Brent reversing earlier gains this morning before details of the talks came through. What the overall positive weekend has perhaps taught us is that the path to a durable resolution remains fragile.

However, for now Brent crude (-1.61%) is reversing its earlier gains, currently trading at $79.27 per barrel. Asian equities are not seeing a clear trend with the Nikkei (+1.56%) notably higher, but with the KOSPI fairly flat after being up +2% earlier in the session. The Shanghai Comp is +0.18%, while the Hang Seng is down -0.98%. China's central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates for the 13th consecutive month overnight.

10-year USTs have increased by +3.2 bps, trading at 4.49% as cash trading has resumed following Friday's US holiday. 2yr yields are +4.7bps. US equity futures are down around half a percentage point but that's roughly where they were for a lot of Friday when the cash market was closed.

The main data highlights this week are the global flash PMIs tomorrow, and the US core PCE on Thursday. Elsewhere, other data of interest include the Ifo survey in Germany (Wednesday), Tokyo CPI in Japan (Friday), and CPI reports in Canada (today) and Australia (Wednesday). Note there is much speculation around whether UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will resign this week after leadership rival Andy Burnham’s by-election win last week. The Observer newspaper yesterday reported that Starmer was preparing to set out a timetable for his departure, with an announcement possible today. If true it’s notable it's happening on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote tomorrow, something the UK still hasn’t come to terms with. Since then, the UK has revolved through six Prime Ministers which alongside Brexit, underlines the immense difficulties many incumbents have in the Western World today. Everyone arrives in the post with great hopes but then the lack of growth and the financial realities hit. Until you have stronger economic growth and are less constrained by debt it’s highly likely the conveyor belt of PMs will continue.

On this, the Deutsche Bank Research Institute will be pleased to welcome you to our London offices on Thursday (11:30 refreshments for a 12-1 presentation) for a look at “Brexit 10 years on: Whats’s worked, what hasn’t, what’s next?”. I’ll be introducing Sanjay Raja and Shreyas Gopal in what looks set to be a fascinating week for the UK.

Moving over to the other side of the Atlantic, after a hawkish FOMC last week with a clear shift in style from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, our economists now have two 25bps hikes in their Fed forecast. They have warned that the US economy needed tighter policy but were waiting for the meeting to confirm the tightening view. The central scenario sees two rate increases this year, likely in September and December, taking the fed funds rate to around 4.1%, followed by a prolonged pause through 2027. Easing is then expected to resume in the first half of 2028, with around 50 basis points of cuts, potentially delivered in March and June, bringing policy back towards a neutral range of roughly 3.5–3.75%. See their piece explaining their view here.

In terms of the US week ahead, our economists expect appearances by Williams and Goolsbee on Thursday to be particularly informative. Williams, who also serves as Vice Chair of the FOMC, is seen as one of those not currently predicting a hike this year, while Goolsbee is viewed as leaning towards around 50 basis points of tightening.

Earlier that day, attention will centre on the data flow. US economists expect May personal income to rise by around 0.4% (from flat previously) and consumption to increase by 0.6% (from 0.5%). The core PCE deflator is projected to rise by around 0.37% month-on-month, up from 0.24%. On this basis, the year-on-year rate would move higher to approximately 3.44%, marking the strongest reading since October 2023 and reinforcing the narrative of persistent underlying inflation. The Fed will also release its bank stress test results on Wednesday and there is other second tier data.

Over in Europe, in addition to the PMIs, sentiment indicators in Germany will include the Ifo survey (Wednesday) and the July GfK consumer confidence print (Thursday). In France, there will be business confidence tomorrow and consumer confidence on Thursday. Finally, the ECB will release its May consumer expectations survey on Friday, with inflation expectations in focus. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde amongst others.

In Asia, inflation prints due include the Tokyo CPI for June on Friday in Japan (see our Chief Japan’s economist week-ahead here) and Australia’s May CPI due Wednesday (DB forecast for headline CPI is -0.4% MoM / 4.3% YoY). Other notable data features BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its June meeting (Wednesday), Australia’s labour force survey (Thursday) and the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates in China (Monday).

Finally, there will be a few notable earnings reports out next week, including FedEx, Cerebras and Carnival tomorrow as well as Micron and Jefferies on Wednesday. Micron is up around 830% over the last year and around 250% since the end of March with a market cap of nearly $1.3tn. So it’s becoming one to follow from the macro side.

Recapping last week, oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.

But even as inflation expectations fell, the Fed’s latest decision on Wednesday led to a clear hawkish repricing for markets. Notably, 9 of the 18 officials in the dot plot signalled there should be a rate hike this year, although new Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot himself. But Warsh did reiterate the Fed’s inflation target, pledging to return inflation to target after five years above. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan delivered a 25bp rate hike, taking their policy rate to a post-1995 high of 1%.

That backdrop meant markets brought forward their expectations for a Fed rate hike. So by the end of the week, 39bps of Fed hikes were priced in by December, up from 21bps at the start of the week. In turn, that led to a flattening in the Treasury yield curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +9.6bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) fell to 4.45%. A similar pattern was evident globally, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+2.7bps) up to 2.64%, whilst the 10yr yield (-1.0ps) fell to 2.98%.

Whilst equities saw a pullback after the Fed decision, they still ended the week higher as concern about a stagflationary shock faded. So the S&P 500 was up +0.93%, Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei surged by +7.92%, marking its biggest weekly jump since August 2024. The moves were supported by the ongoing rebound in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.26% to a new record.

Recapping last week now and oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 08:26

Tyler Durden

Companies & Markets Analysis 20/05/2026: | Stockopedia

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