US-Iran peace deal may help boost India's exports, stabilise rupee

Summary

New Delhi: The announcement that the US and Iran have finalised a deal to end their 107-day conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to boost India's exports to West Asia, which was severely impacted by the hostilities, spur manufacturing activity and help stabilise the rupee, according to exporters and experts. They said the announcement, if implemented successfully, would reduce pressure on India's import bill, ease inflationary covers and create a more conducive environment for trade. The peace agreement would be signed on June 19 in Switzerland. Also read: Nukes, crude sanctions & frozen assets: Inside the 14-point US-Iran peace agreement The US and Iran have reached a peace deal to end a four-month war that disrupted global energy supplies, pushed oil prices above USD 100 per barrel, and brought the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional conflict. For India, which relies heavily on West Asia for crude oil, LPG and LNG supplies, the deal promises relief from high energy prices, pressure on the rupee, and inflation risks that intensified during the conflict, economic think tank GTRI said. "For India, the agreement brings immediate economic relief as the conflict has exposed India's dependence on West Asia, from where it sources roughly 50 per cent of its crude oil imports, around 70 per cent of its LPG supplies and nearly 90 per cent of its LNG imports," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said. The disruption of shipping through the Gulf raised India's energy import bill, increased inflation risks, weakened the rupee and forced refiners to seek alternative supplies from distant markets. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is expected to stabilise energy markets, ease pressure on oil and gas prices, strengthen the rupee and improve India's growth outlook, he said. Mumbai-based exporter and Founder Chairman, Technocraft Industries India, Sharad Kumar Saraf said the announcement paves way for the end of uncertainties, economic slow down and unwarranted hardships. "The end of war and hostilities will not only help in quantum jump in India's exports but will throw open a host of new business opportunities. Next 2-3 years will accelerate India's efforts for a Viksit Bharat," he said. Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President S C Ralhan said any easing of geopolitical tensions in the region should help restore normalcy in global energy supplies and moderate prices. "For India, this would reduce pressure on the import bill, normalise exports, support rupee stability, ease inflationary concerns, and create a more conducive environment for trade and economic growth," he said. Experts also said opening the Strait of Hormuz would help smoothen the movement of ships in international waters. The closure has led to an increase in insurance and freight rates. Ships are carrying goods from the Cape of Good Hope, encircling Africa, which has increased the delivery time of consignments. INDIA-WEST ASIA TRADE The war (started has severely affected India's exports and imports with that region. All six members (UAE, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait) of the region are key trading partners of India. The conflict began on February 28 when the US and Israel jointly launched military operations against Iran over its nuclear programme. Due to this, India's exports posted the steepest fall in five months, declining 7.44 per cent in March to USD 38.92 billion. India's exports to the Middle East or West Asia region fell 57.95 per cent to USD 3.5 billion in March, while imports from the Gulf nations fell 51.64 per cent. Normally India exports goods worth about USD 6 billion to this region. Also read: Trump leaves the hard part for later in long-awaited Iran deal India's exports to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) grew about 1 per cent to about USD 57 billion in 2024-25 against USD 56.32 billion in 2023-24. Imports rose 15.33 per cent to USD 121.7 billion in 2024-25 from USD 105.5 billion in 2023-24. The UAE was India's third-largest trading partner in 2025-26. India's exports to the nation rose about 2 per cent to USD 37.4 billion in 2025-26, while imports were up 0.78 per cent USD 63.9 billion in the last fiscal year, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 26.53 billion in 2025-26. Saudi Arabia was India's fifth-largest trading partner during the last fiscal year. Exports to the kingdom dipped 12.55 per cent to USD 110.28 billion in 2025-26, while imports were up 2.22 per cent to USD 30.8 billion, leading to a trade deficit of USD 20.5 billion in 2025-26. Exports to Qatar dip 3.7 per cent to USD 1.62 billion last fiscal year, while imports declined 1.37 per cent to USD 12.3 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 10.7 billion in 2025-26. Shipments to Oman dipped 1 per cent to USD 4.02 billion in 2025-26, while imports were up 9.43 per cent to USD 7.16 billion. The trade deficit was 3.14 billion. Exports to Kuwait dipped 14.63 per cent to USD 1.65 billion, while imports were down 4.4 per cent to USD 7.91 billion, leading to a trade deficit of USD 6.26 billion. Similarly, India's outbound shipments to Bahrain were down 2.32 per cent in the last fiscal year to USD 779 million in the last fiscal year. Imports were up 5.25 per cent to USD 887.76 million, leaving a trade deficit of USD 108.78 million. India's key exports to GCC countries include engineering goods, refined petroleum products, food and agricultural products, cereals, rice, meat, marine products, gems and jewellery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and machinery. The country's major imports include comprise crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petrochemicals, fertilisers, plastics, aluminium and other mineral fuels. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) They said the announcement, if implemented successfully, would reduce pressure on India's import bill, ease inflationary covers and create a more conducive environment for trade. The peace agreement would be signed on June 19 in Switzerland. Also read: Nukes, crude sanctions & frozen assets: Inside the 14-point US-Iran peace agreement The US and Iran have reached a peace deal to end a four-month war that disrupted global energy supplies, pushed oil prices above USD 100 per barrel, and brought the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional conflict. For India, which relies heavily on West Asia for crude oil, LPG and LNG supplies, the deal promises relief from high energy prices, pressure on the rupee, and inflation risks that intensified during the conflict, economic think tank GTRI said. "For India, the agreement brings immediate economic relief as the conflict has exposed India's dependence on West Asia, from where it sources roughly 50 per cent of its crude oil imports, around 70 per cent of its LPG supplies and nearly 90 per cent of its LNG imports," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said. The disruption of shipping through the Gulf raised India's energy import bill, increased inflation risks, weakened the rupee and forced refiners to seek alternative supplies from distant markets. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is expected to stabilise energy markets, ease pressure on oil and gas prices, strengthen the rupee and improve India's growth outlook, he said. Mumbai-based exporter and Founder Chairman, Technocraft Industries India, Sharad Kumar Saraf said the announcement paves way for the end of uncertainties, economic slow down and unwarranted hardships. "The end of war and hostilities will not only help in quantum jump in India's exports but will throw open a host of new business opportunities. Next 2-3 years will accelerate India's efforts for a Viksit Bharat," he said. Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President S C Ralhan said any easing of geopolitical tensions in the region should help restore normalcy in global energy supplies and moderate prices. "For India, this would reduce pressure on the import bill, normalise exports, support rupee stability, ease inflationary concerns, and create a more conducive environment for trade and economic growth," he said. Experts also said opening the Strait of Hormuz would help smoothen the movement of ships in international waters. The closure has led to an increase in insurance and freight rates. Ships are carrying goods from the Cape of Good Hope, encircling Africa, which has increased the delivery time of consignments. INDIA-WEST ASIA TRADE The war (started has severely affected India's exports and imports with that region. All six members (UAE, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait) of the region are key trading partners of India. The conflict began on February 28 when the US and Israel jointly launched military operations against Iran over its nuclear programme. Due to this, India's exports posted the steepest fall in five months, declining 7.44 per cent in March to USD 38.92 billion. India's exports to the Middle East or West Asia region fell 57.95 per cent to USD 3.5 billion in March, while imports from the Gulf nations fell 51.64 per cent. Normally India exports goods worth about USD 6 billion to this region. Also read: Trump leaves the hard part for later in long-awaited Iran deal India's exports to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) grew about 1 per cent to about USD 57 billion in 2024-25 against USD 56.32 billion in 2023-24. Imports rose 15.33 per cent to USD 121.7 billion in 2024-25 from USD 105.5 billion in 2023-24. The UAE was India's third-largest trading partner in 2025-26. India's exports to the nation rose about 2 per cent to USD 37.4 billion in 2025-26, while imports were up 0.78 per cent USD 63.9 billion in the last fiscal year, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 26.53 billion in 2025-26. Saudi Arabia was India's fifth-largest trading partner during the last fiscal year. Exports to the kingdom dipped 12.55 per cent to USD 110.28 billion in 2025-26, while imports were up 2.22 per cent to USD 30.8 billion, leading to a trade deficit of USD 20.5 billion in 2025-26. Exports to Qatar dip 3.7 per cent to USD 1.62 billion last fiscal year, while imports declined 1.37 per cent to USD 12.3 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 10.7 billion in 2025-26. Shipments to Oman dipped 1 per cent to USD 4.02 billion in 2025-26, while imports were up 9.43 per cent to USD 7.16 billion. The trade deficit was 3.14 billion. Exports to Kuwait dipped 14.63 per cent to USD 1.65 billion, while imports were down 4.4 per cent to USD 7.91 billion, leading to a trade deficit of USD 6.26 billion. Similarly, India's outbound shipments to Bahrain were down 2.32 per cent in the last fiscal year to USD 779 million in the last fiscal year. Imports were up 5.25 per cent to USD 887.76 million, leaving a trade deficit of USD 108.78 million. India's key exports to GCC countries include engineering goods, refined petroleum products, food and agricultural products, cereals, rice, meat, marine products, gems and jewellery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and machinery. The country's major imports include comprise crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petrochemicals, fertilisers, plastics, aluminium and other mineral fuels. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) Prime ExclusivesInvestment IdeasStock Report PlusePaperWealth Edition