US Futures, Global Stocks Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal

Summary

US Futures, Global Stocks Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal Global markets soared in a risk-on rally following the announcement of a US-Iran deal Sunday night. Stocks and bonds rallied while oil tumbled to a three-month low after the US and Iran said they have reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt the war. This will provide a 60-day window for negotiation. As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 2.1%, while those for the S&P 500 rose 1.3%. In the pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by NVDA (+2.1%), META (+2.0%) and MSFT (+1.7%). European stocks climbed 0.7% to shatter a pre-war record high while Asian stocks were similarly buoyant. Bond yields are 2-5bp lower led by the belly of the curve and the 10Y trading around 4.4%. The USD is lower. Brent fell to around $83 a barrel and WTI slid below $80 for the first time since the start of the war. Gold and Bitcoin gained strongly, while the dollar lost ground against all major currencies. European bonds outperformed global peers. Metals are higher led by gold (2.8%) and silver (+3.9%). US economic data calendar includes June Empire manufacturing (8:30am), May industrial production (9:15am) and June NAHB housing market index (10am) In premarket trading, miners, cruise-line operators and airlines gain, while energy stocks fall, on the US-Iran deal. Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Amazon +2.4%, Nvidia +2%, Alphabet +1.8%, Meta +1.5%, Microsoft +1.5%, Tesla +1.5%, Apple +0.7%) Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) is up 6.1% after Jefferies raised its recommendation on the defense technology company to buy from hold on revenue upside from defense demand. Old Dominion (ODFL) falls 1.1% after Citi analyst Ariel Rosa cut the recommendation to sell from neutral, writing that optimism about the trucking industry seems to be reflected in the valuations of sector players. Roku Inc. (ROKU) shares rise 2.5% after Fox Corp. agreed to buy the company for $160 per share in cash and stock. Fox (FOXA) shares fall 13% SpaceX (SPCX) jumps 6% after its blockbuster debut Friday vaulted it into the ranks of the world’s most valuable public companies. In other weekend news, the US government has ordered Anthropic to disable access to its most advanced AI platforms for all foreign nationals after discovering it’s possible to “jailbreak” the Fable 5 AI model. The agreement between Washington and Tehran signals an end a three-month conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and upended financial markets. A pickup in energy flows would also help unwind the premium embedded in crude prices, offering comfort to policymakers battling inflation. “Risk appetite is back on, but the issue is to know whether the Strait fully reopens,” said Christopher Dembik, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management. “Trump doesn’t have a great track record of lasting deals in the Middle East, so there’s a risk of tensions spiking back during the summer.” Investors are awaiting details of the US-Iran agreement ahead of a formal signing scheduled for Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen after Friday’s signing of the deal, President Donald Trump said on social media. The event would then trigger the start of 60 days of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump told the New York Times that if an agreement isn’t reached on nuclear, he could restart military attacks. For its part, Iran will allow free transit through the waterway for only 60 days, Fars news agency reported, citing a person familiar with the matter. “It’s not a permanent solution, so a significant risk premium will likely be priced into markets,” said George Moran, European macro strategist at RBC. “But, if oil stays around $80-85, it certainly takes a good amount of pressure off central bankers’ shoulders.” Investors bet that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely help ease inflation pressures and reinforce expecations for lower interest rates. Swaps traders are pricing about a 75% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by December, down from about 80% on Friday. The agreement sees some hedge funds reopening pre-war playbooks, while some market participants caution the economic fallout from the conflict remains unresolved. Reactions in other assets include Bitcoin rallying to its highest level in nearly two weeks, while WTI crude oil slumped around 5%, although considerable challenges remain to relieving a profound global crunch. Hormuz trade will take months to return to normal. Turning back to the market, the US stock market is poised to see a surge in new equity issuance, with JPMorgan estimating share sales will add roughly $1.5 trillion of stock to the market over the next two years. It could herald a seismic shift, compared to buybacks by S&P 500 companies alone erasing $12 trillion worth of stock over 20 years. Meanwhile, with everyone flooding back into risk, the cost to fund US equity positions is jumping unexpectedly, due to the combination of the AI-driven stock rally, the massive growth of leveraged ETFs and SpaceX’s $75 billion listing. The financing spreads embedded in S&P 500 Index futures have opened up the biggest gap to Treasury financing rates since late 2024. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gains are led by autos, industrials and construction stocks, though the benchmark has pared its rise. Here are the biggest movers Monday: Banca Generali climbs as much as 9.5% to a new record after Jefferies upgraded the Italian private bank to buy, based on a turn in flows and better visibility IQE shares rise as much as 20% after the semiconductor company announced a multiyear agreement to supply indium phosphide wafers to Tower Semiconductor Técnicas Reunidas rises as much as 10% after the Spanish company said it has been awarded two engineering, procurement and construction contracts for upstream facilities to handle oil field production in the Middle East Belimo shares advance as much as 9.2% to the highest since July 2025 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the company to overweight, saying much of the company’s revenue growth in coming three years will come from data centers Corbion shares rise as much as 8.9% to their highest since February 2025 after the Dutch company got an upgrade to buy at Berenberg, which cited higher fish oil prices and the potential for further consolidation in the food ingredients sector Energy and defense stocks are among those underperforming as European stocks rise to a new record, with most sectors trading higher after the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz Kesko falls as much as 11% after the Finnish retailer said it would buy building materials distributor Dahl’s business in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark from Saint-Gobain for €1.2 billion excluding debt. Kesko will sell new shares as part of the financing Telia falls as much as 4%, the most since January, after being downgraded to sell from hold at Berenberg, which said expectations of stronger growth are already reflected in the price Vistry shares fall as much as 5.6% to the lowest since 1999 after analysts said the homebuilder is cutting prices more aggressively than peers and faces a greater impact from rising build costs Luceco slides as much as 12%, retreating from the 2022-high hit at the end of last week, after the maker of electrical products said CEO John Hornby is retiring Shares in AJ Bell, DWS and Aberdeen slip after Goldman Sachs downgrades the three investment firms, arguing that recent rallies leave limited upside at a time when the sector faces increased competition and a continued shift toward passive investment UCB drops as much as 4.3% after Barclays downgraded the stock to equal-weight from overweight, citing limited upside for the Belgian biopharmaceutical company’s shares over the next 12 months Asian stocks advanced after the US and Iran announced an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over energy-supply disruptions that have driven up oil prices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 3.2%, on track for its biggest two-day rally since March 2022. Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared to a record high, while South Korea’s Kospi and the Philippine index gained more than 5%. Most other regional markets were in the green. The renewed flow of energy under the peace deal is expected to lower inflationary pressures ahead of interest rate decisions this week from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The threat of tighter monetary policy has clouded the outlook for growth following the artificial intelligence boom of the past few years. Among key factors being watched locally, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to the highest level since 1995 in its decision due Tuesday. Sectors to Watch Chinese electric truck and battery maker stocks rise after the government announced a plan to scale up new‑energy heavy-duty trucks, targeting 40% market penetration. Chinese chip stocks advance as risk appetite improves, with sentiment further boosted by a report that ByteDance is in talks with China’s Iluvatar CoreX to buy AI chips. Asian gold-related stocks follow precious metal prices higher after the US and Iran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Asian energy shares fall, tracking a slump in oil, after the US and Iran said they reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Airline stocks rise. InnoScience Suzhou Technology’s shares jump as much as 12% in Hong Kong after China’s top court backs the company’s case and blocks Infineon Technologies from selling gallium nitride products in the country. Chinese brokerage stocks rise as investors rotate into cyclicals on improved sentiment from Iran peace deal and earnings outlook. Japanese space industry stocks plunged after SpaceX surged on its first day of trading in the US Friday. In rates, treasuries hold opening gap higher, with futures just off session highs in early US session and front-end yields 4bp-5bp lower. Price action is driven by slide in oil prices after the US and Iran reached agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz. Fed rate-hike expectations shift further into the future, with a 25bp move fully priced in by March. Treasury yield curve steepens as front-end tenors outperform, widening 2s10s spread by about 1bp, 5s30s by 2.5bp; 10-year is around 4.44% vs session low 4.418% reached in Asia session, slightly lagging bunds and gilts in the sector. Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening Tuesday and $24 billion 5-year TIPS reopening Thursday. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of offerings so far; dealers forecast about $25 billion this week, concentrated ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting. In commodities, Brent drops to about $83/barrel and WTI is below $81, down 5% to the lowest since the start of the Iran war. Gold prices are also rising above $4,300/oz on reduced rate-hike bets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is off its lows but still down against most major currencies. US economic data calendar includes June Empire manufacturing (8:30am), May industrial production (9:15am) and June NAHB housing market index (10am) Market Snapshot Top Overnight News The US and Iran said they reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, setting the stage for 60 days of negotiations on the fate of Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran will allow free Hormuz transit during that period under the pact. Both sides will meet in Switzerland on Friday to sign a deal. No text of the accord has been released. BBG The stock market is starting to expand again after years of shrinking — and potentially at a scale not seen since the dot-com era. For the better part of two decades, a defining feature of the US stock market has been scarcity. Year after year, shares disappeared from public hands, with buybacks by S&P 500 companies alone erasing nearly $12 trillion worth. BBG Treasuries climbed across the curve as investors dialed back expectations for inflation and Fed rate hikes. The reported deal may help alleviate pressure on Kevin Warsh before this week’s policy meeting. BBG European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that high energy prices are starting to feed through to other parts of the economy. Lagarde said the ECB will take measures if they start to feel second-round effects, such as wage increases, and are looking at underlying inflation. BBG Prices are likely to stay elevated for longer even if the war in Iran were to end soon, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in an interview with Deutschlandfunk. BBG The UK announced a full ban on under-16s using social media from early next year in one of the strictest online crackdowns in the democratic world. BBG Russia’s ballistic-missile attacks against Ukraine have grown in ferocity and magnitude in recent weeks because Russian military planners are exploiting one of Ukraine’s greatest weaknesses: The Ukrainian military does not have enough Patriot missile interceptors to keep up with the barrages. NYT President Donald Trump has said he will hit France’s wine industry with a 100% tariff on exports to the U.S. if it does not scrap its digital services tax on U.S. technology companies. The warning comes ahead of this week’s G7 meeting in Évian-les-Bains, France. CNBC South Korea's stock market is approaching a milestone of potentially being considered for MSCI Inc.'s developed-market status after surging more than 90% this year. Most investors expect MSCI to keep Korea in the emerging-market camp for now, but believe it's a matter of time before Korea is classified as a developed market. BBG JPM Market Intel team: "We flipped to Tactically Bullish from the previous cautious stance because a potential US–Iran agreement could catalyze a broad risk-on impulse across equities, supported by strong fundamentals. That said, the historical pattern suggests that “everything rally” can fade into concentrated leadership following the initial impulse" Volatile market rotations during the past week continued to follow the pattern of the sharpest Momentum rallies in recent decades. Before the sell-off that started two weeks ago, a narrow-breadth Momentum rally had driven the sharpest two-month S&P 500 return since 1971, when scaled relative to volatility. Following similarly sharp rallies in the past, the Momentum factor has usually struggled during the subsequent few months. In addition to the historical precedent, the current market characteristics of elevated trading leverage, still-narrow market breadth, and uncertainty about both the macro outlook and the AI build-out suggest volatility will persist. Goldman Weekend Iran War Updates Over the weekend, the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, marking a significant de-escalation of the conflict. Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and releasing part of Iran's frozen assets. Regarding uranium, Iran would be allowed to dilute enriched uranium on site, while the 60-day window allows for further negotiations on its enriched uranium programme. The deal also covers Lebanon, with Pakistan's PM posting on X that the pact called for the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. A source told Fars that the text of the MoU underwent changes that have definitely and explicitly emphasised the issue of exercising Iranian-Oman sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. It is now written that the future of the administration of maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz will be "determined" by Iran and Oman. Furthermore, the change now writes that Iran will only accept ships for 60 days of free passage. That is, the US has accepted the principle of receiving fees and has only taken a 60-day discount from Iran. But after these 60 days, Iran intends to benefit from the financial revenues generated by the traffic. Israeli Defence Minister Katz said "we oppose the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon... have made it clear to US President Trump". If Iran attacks Israel because of events in Lebanon, "we will strike it with full force and make sure it clearly understands the gap in capabilities." Israel's Finance Minister said that "the agreement is bad for the entire world. We will have to continue the campaign in creative ways." Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said US President Trump's agreement does not bind us in any way. US and Iran to hold preparatory talks in Doha before deal signing, AFP reported citing a diplomat. UKMTO receives report of an incident 14 Nautical Miles south of Yemen coast. US President Trump posted on Sunday, "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" US President Trump said in a New York Times phone interview that he reached a deal, despite objections from Israeli PM Netanyahu, whom he described as "very difficult", while Trump added the US is to resume Iran strikes if it can't reach a nuclear accord. Trump also stated that the deal is to ensure the Strait of Hormuz is permanently toll-free and that the MoU suspends tolls in the Strait for 60 days. Pakistan's PM Sharif said, following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been reached, with the official signing ceremony to take place on Friday, 19th June in Switzerland. Sharif also stated that both sides have declared an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and that with an agreement now in place, the mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the text of the memorandum of understanding has been finalised and an official signing of the MoU take place on Friday in Switzerland, while negotiations for a final deal will be held for a period of 60 days and they will take their own measures if they witness breaches from the other side. Gharibabadi said the MoU text will be published after official signing, but does not mean trust in the enemy, as well as noted that among the topics to be discussed in the 60-day negotiations are ending sanctions, mechanisms for Iran's reconstruction, and establishing mechanisms to monitor all parties' commitments. Iran's Foreign Ministry said an immediate and permanent end to the war and military operations on all fronts is effective Sunday night, while it added that talks are contingent on the release of assets and the lifting of sanctions. Iranian media Mehr News reported that the US-Iran 14-point MoU includes a US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran, lift the naval blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions, and release frozen Iranian funds; nuclear issue pushed back by 60 days for final agreement. Additionally, the US is required to present a plan to rebuild Iran’s economy, while the final negotiations between the two countries should focus on nuclear and economic issues, without discussing Iran’s missile program. This text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran. US official denied Iran's claim of a USD 12bln unconditional fund release, stating that any release of Iranian funds is tied to a pay-for-performance deal, according to Axios' Ravid. Iran's chief negotiator/Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi will travel to Geneva to sign the agreement, while US VP Vance is reported to sign on behalf of Washington, according to NYT. It was also reported by Axios that US VP Vance will meet with Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf in Geneva on Friday to sign the US-Iran agreement. Mehr News reported continued violations of the ceasefire, stating that Nabatiyeh and Kafrmanah in southern Lebanon were targeted by Israeli artillery shelling. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks rallied following the announcement that the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to end the hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal, which is scheduled to be signed on Friday, immediately ends the US naval blockade against Iran and provides time for negotiations towards a final deal to be held for a period of 60 days. However, there are some differing views between the sides regarding the release of funds, with Iran claiming a USD 12bln unconditional fund release, which a US official pushed back on, stating that any release of Iranian funds is tied to a pay-for-performance deal, while President Trump warned that the US would resume Iran strikes if it can't reach a nuclear accord. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the mining, materials and resources sectors, with notable strength seen in gold miners, while energy was at the other end of the spectrum owing to the reaction in underlying commodities to the deal to extend the ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz. Nikkei 225 surged to a fresh record high above the 69,000 level with tech, manufacturing and heavy industry stocks boosted amid the lower oil prices and peace agreement. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp tracked the gains of regional peers as the PBoC continued to boost its daily liquidity efforts, and with the gains led by mining and tech, while Chinese airlines soared and oil majors suffered from the drop in oil prices. Top Asian News Fitch affirms China at "A"; outlook stable. China issued guidelines on classifying and grading financial information data. China is setting up for a commercial launch of a cross-border digital currency platform that would be backed by the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to reduce reliance on the dollar and to draw Beijing closer to its Belt and Road trading partners, according to FT. China set out a plan to scale up new-energy heavy-duty trucks and targets 40% market penetration and a fleet of more than 1.6mln vehicles by 2030. European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) are rallying after the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, with the STOXX 600 now reaching a new ATH. Details are yet to be confirmed, but it suggests Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US will lift the naval blockade, waive sanctions on Iranian oil and partially release Iran's frozen assets. If there is no breakdown of the deal, the MoU is to be officially signed on Friday in Geneva. Sectors are broadly higher. Cyclicals that have suffered from the closure of Hormuz are the clear outperformers (Autos +3.3%, Construction +2.7%, Travel & Leisure +2.4%). Energy (-3.1%) is the clear underperformer, while Utilities (-1.0%) and Telecoms (-1.1%) also show modest losses. Top European News UK PM Starmer is set to backtrack on electric vehicle targets by reducing the all-electric cap from 80% to 50% by the end of the decade amid fears of job losses, according to FT. UK PM Starmer confirmed that the Government is to ban social media for all under 16s. FX G10s mostly firmer against the Buck as energy returns to March levels on the US and Iran’s interim agreement. Antipodeans and CHF lead, while USD/JPY briefly ventured below 160. DXY -0.3%, is pressured as the risk environment is bolstered by the US-Iran interim deal (see commodities for more details). Fed tightening bets have eased overnight with markets assigning a c. 60% probability of a 25bps hike by year-end. Domestic newsflow light ahead of Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Chair on Wednesday. DXY marked a session trough just below its 21DMA of 99.41. EUR is firmer against both the Sterling and Buck as it reacts to the softer energy complex. Some ECB speakers this morning, none of which did much to spur a reaction in the currency, as price action remains dependent on geopolitical developments. A number of speakers are due to provide remarks throughout the week, which could provide hints as to whether further tightening is warranted, but with constructive updates this weekend, the chances are slimmer. GBP firms, but to a lesser extent than EUR (EUR/GBP +0.2%) with the Makerfield by-election potentially deciding the next UK Prime Minister, and the BoE meeting on Thursday, likely to see the MPC opt to stand pat on rates in a expected 7-2 vote split. On the former, Burnham was busy on the wires over the weekend. He said he would not touch the state pension triple lock, and there were also further reports suggesting Home Secretary Mahmood was an option for Chancellor. GBP/USD +0.2% with 1.34 vulnerable to the downside. EUR/GBP looks to test 0.8650, where the rally stalled overnight. Upside risks to the cross should UK Political uncertainty continue, and an unconvincing BoE potentially highlight vulnerable EUR-UK differentials. CHF is the best performer after the nation voted to reject a proposal to cap its population at 10mln, avoiding issues with the EU (USD/CHF -0.4%). NOK is the worst G10 performer with the popular Middle East conflict trade NOK/SEK continuing to unwind (NOK/SEK -0.9%). Fixed Income Global fixed benchmarks rise as the US and Iran agree to a framework peace deal, which has led to continued and sustained pressure in the crude complex. In brief, the US and Iran have reached a framework peace agreement; the US will lift its naval blockade, and Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, a full text has not yet been released, which has stemmed some uncertainty on a few key points. USTs (+9 ticks) are currently off the overnight highs and continued the downward bias throughout the European morning (109-24+ to 111-00 range). Action which has been facilitated by the easing of inflationary implications associated with lower energy prices. From a yield perspective, there is a clear bull steepening. The US 2yr (4.03%) is eyeing the round 4.00% mark but still remains well above the levels seen pre-Iran war (3.47%). The path yields take will be subject to: a) developments heading into Friday’s signing, b) the signing itself, c) the time it takes for stockpiles to be rebuilt. Finally, on Fed pricing, markets now assign a 65% chance of a hike by Dec’26 (vs the prev. fully priced by year-end). Bunds (+46 ticks) and Gilts (+46 ticks) both gain, thanks to the positive geopolitical updates; the latter outperforming a touch given the UK’s high reliance on external energy. This also comes ahead of the BoE policy decision this Thursday, where rates are expected to remain on hold – the latest geopolitical updates will only further cement that decision. Commodities Over the weekend,the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, marking a significant de-escalation of the conflict. Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and releasing part of Iran's frozen assets. Regarding uranium, Iran would be allowed to dilute enriched uranium on site, while the 60-day window allows for further negotiations on its enriched uranium programme. The deal also covers Lebanon, with Pakistan's PM posting on X that the pact called for the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, comments by Israeli Defence Minister Katz suggest Israel will not back out of Lebanon, stating that Israel opposes the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon. Additional comments by Israeli Finance Minister stating the US-Iran agreement is harmful to Israel and that they will have to continue their campaign in creative ways. Crude futures gapped lower at the open and have held onto earlier losses. WTI Jul'26 briefly dipped below USD 80/bbl (USD 79.70-82.42/bbl) while Brent Aug'26 trades at the lower end of its USD 82.67-85.93/bbl range. Spot gold has benefited from the weekend newsflow, as markets pare back rate hike bets. Markets now assign a c. 60% probability of a hike by December. Spot gold regained the USD 4300/oz handle, currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4281-4346/oz range. 3M LME Copper gains amid the constructive risk tone, gapping higher and oscillating in a USD 13.76k-13.87k/t range. Trade/Tariffs US President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on French wine over digital tax and demands France axes 3% tech levy or face a trade war, according to NYP. Indian Trade Official said USTR Greer to visit India on June 23-24th with the focus on final revisions to interim agreement. Central Bank ECB's Kazimir said it is increasingly evident that monetary policy has more work to do and is not comfortable with outlook for core inflation above 2% even with more tightening. Even with the US-Iran peace framework, damage in the Middle East cannot be undone overnight and is leaning towards frontloading work that needs to be done, but need to be agile and responsive to incoming information. ECB's Nagel said the ECB is keeping all options open for July meeting and that the ECB is no longer dealing with short-term supply shock. Can't exclude second-round effects from energy. ECB policy settings are still broadly neutral but there is no relief in sight for the foreseeable future. ECB's Kazaks said the ECB can move gradually but is ready to act if needed. To add, Kazaks still see upside risks to inflation. Ukraine updates Ukraine targeted a Russian chemical plant and fuel depot in strikes. It was separately reported that three people were killed and another three were injured in Russia's city of Tula following a drone attack, while a Ukrainian attack damaged two bridges in the Russian-held Kherson region. Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was reconnected to the grid after repairs were carried out under an IAEA-brokered local ceasefire. UK forces boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Channel on Sunday in a raid on Russia’s shadow fleet. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: Jun Empire Manufacturing, est. 13.5, prior 19.6 9:15 am: May Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.7% 9:15 am: May Capacity Utilization, est. 76.2%, prior 76.1% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I hope you all had a good weekend. It was the school fete, and my kids ran what they felt was a very successful homemade lemonade and orangeade stand. The kids and my wife were saying it made so much money they could set up their own business. Without wanting to be a party pooper I had to remind them that I saw the costs on my bank statement. A few hundred oranges and lemons, lots of soda water, other ingredients, an industrial vat to mix it, a few huge glass bottles with taps to dispense them and then all the cups. Oh, and the gazebo, and no ground rent so far. So if anyone wants to invest in this bunch of well-meaning dreamers, please feel free to take me out of my stake. Although if the IPO market stays this buoyant maybe I'll just hold on and float it in a few weeks. The fizz in staying in markets this morning as after 107 days and a seemingly endless number of false dawns, we finally have a deal between the US and Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. It was announced at around 10:30pm UK last night and the MoU will be signed in Switzerland on Friday. According to statements carried by Iranian state-affiliated media, the agreement includes a phased lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the unfreezing of roughly $12bn in overseas assets, and a commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days (after mine clearing) alongside the removal of the US naval blockade. The deal also sets out a 60-day negotiation window on a broader accord, including constraints around Iran’s nuclear programme, where Tehran is expected to commit to maintaining its current status and not pursuing nuclear weapons. The US hasn’t been so explicit and whilst the deal is very good news for markets it looks like tough conversations will have occur in the 60-day window to ensure the peace is sustainable. As an example, the Senate needs to approve any extensive sanction relief for Iran. For now the can kicking exercise has been very well received by markets even after a strong US close on Friday where hopes were raised of a weekend signing. Brent is -4.3% lower at $83.31/bbl and S&P 500 (+1.20%), NASDAQ 100 (+1.90%) and Stoxx (+1.60%) futures are higher as I type and in Asia the KOSPI (+5.56%) is again leading the charge with the Nikkei (+5.24%) not far behind and at fresh record highs. The CSI and Shanghai Composite are +1.47% and +0.94% respectively, while the Hang Seng is +0.45%. The S&P/ASX 200 (+1.34%) is also trading significantly higher ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting. 10-year USTs are trading -5.3bps lower at 4.43% as I write with 2-yr yields -5.7bps lower. The other major story is the decision late on Friday from the US government to issue an export control directive forcing Anthropic to restrict access to its most advanced models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, released to great global acclaim last week, to US nationals only, citing undefined national security concerns. In practice, because it is operationally difficult to separate users by nationality, Anthropic opted to suspend access to these models entirely on a global basis. The move marks one of the first instances of the US applying export controls not just to AI hardware (e.g. semiconductors) but directly to frontier models themselves, reflecting a growing view of AI as a strategic, dual use asset. Clearly the export control may only be temporary as the cited jailbreak risk is examined and rectified quickly. This is probably the most likely outcome. However, if it longer-term, and more strategic from the US government, it's not great news for US tech firms or for those assuming breakneck speed of AI adoption. US tech firms require a global marketplace to justify their huge investments so far. In addition, global enterprise would want to ensure any models they purchase are usable, especially for business-critical operations. You can't rely on something that could be switched off. So all eyes on what Anthropic and the US government agree as the next step. Outside of Iran and AI, central banks will dominate the global agenda in the coming week, with key policy decisions across the Fed, BoJ and BoE alongside important inflation and activity data. The primary focus will be the United States and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which marks the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The leadership transition introduces a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around both policy signalling and communication style. While an immediate policy shift is unlikely, the meeting will be closely scrutinised for early indications of how Warsh intends to reshape the Fed’s framework, particularly given his stated ambition for a broader “regime change”. In terms of the statement, a modest upgrade to the labour market assessment appears likely, reflecting steady job growth and a broadly stable unemployment rate. More importantly, the guidance language could shift meaningfully. Warsh has been openly critical of heavy reliance on forward guidance, so the Committee may lean towards a more neutral, data-dependent formulation. This would effectively remove any residual easing bias and reopen the possibility of further tightening should inflation dynamics warrant it. Any such adjustment would be interpreted as a recalibration towards optionality rather than a firm directional signal. Beyond the headline statement, attention will turn to the Summary of Economic Projections. The distribution of rate expectations may shift upwards, with 4 or 5 policymakers signalling the potential for hikes into 2026 and beyond. This would likely nudge the median path higher across the projection horizon and reinforce the idea that the Fed is not yet comfortable declaring victory on inflation. Our economists note that Warsh may not submit dots which would reflect his views on forward guidance. Revisions to inflation forecasts, particularly for the outer years, will also be closely examined for evidence of more persistent price pressures. At the moment our economists expect core PCE for 2027 to be raised by a tenth to 2.3%. However, the most revealing element of the meeting may be Warsh’s press conference. His prior remarks suggest he will likely place less emphasis on near-term data fluctuations and explicit forward guidance, instead favouring a broader narrative around structural forces such as productivity and technological change. While this could temper the immediate hawkish interpretation, markets may test whether this framing is sufficient to justify patience in the face of still-elevated inflation. Just as important will be any early signals on communication reform—whether through changes to the dot plot, adjustments to the SEP, or a broader rethink of how the Fed conveys uncertainty. So a fascinating meeting to look forward to. In terms of US data, the focus will be on May retail sales due Wednesday, and our US economists expect a +0.5% MoM rise in the headline (same as in April). Industrial production is due today (DB forecast is a +0.1% MoM increase, down from +0.7% in April) and there will be several housing indicators out this week as well. US markets will be on holiday for the Juneteenth National Independence Day on Friday. Outside the US, central bank activity remains heavy. In Europe, decisions are due from the Riksbank and a cluster of Thursday meetings including the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank. In the UK, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention focused on the vote split (our team expect 7-2) and any evolution in guidance against a backdrop of still-sticky inflation (see preview here). Incoming UK data, particularly CPI (Wednesday), labour market indicators (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday), will provide important context for the policy outlook. Meanwhile, euro area attention will also be shaped by ongoing commentary from ECB officials and sentiment indicators such as the German ZEW survey (tomorrow). Political developments will also be in focus, with the G7 leaders meeting early in the week (today through Wednesday) followed by the European Council summit (Thursday-Friday). In Asia, the Bank of Japan meeting (tomorrow) stands out, with expectations for a further rate increase as part of its gradual normalisation process. Japanese inflation data later in the week (Friday) will help gauge whether underlying price momentum continues to justify policy tightening. In China, their monthly activity data tomorrow covering industrial production and retail sales will provide an updated read on the growth trajectory, with expectations for a modest improvement after recent softness. Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain on hold (tomorrow), while New Zealand’s GDP release (Wednesday) will offer further insight into the strength of its economic recovery. Recapping last week now, and markets saw big moves on the back of geopolitical developments, as tensions first mounted in the Middle East, before easing markedly into the weekend. Overall, hopes for an imminent deal meant that oil prices came down, with Brent crude closing beneath $90/bbl for the first time since early March, down -6.19% to close at $87.33bbl (-3.37% Friday). Indeed, that was clear across the futures curve, with the 6-month Brent future also down -3.46% to $81.69/bbl, its lowest level since April. With oil prices at their lowest in months, that helped to ease fears about a wider stagflationary shock. Moreover, investors also became dovish on the future rates outlook. For instance, futures were fully pricing in a Fed rate hike by December at the start of the week, but that probability was down to 82% by the weekend. So that meant the 10yr Treasury yield fell -5.0bps (+1.9bps Friday) to 4.48%. And over in Europe, the 10yr bund yield fell -3.7bps to 2.99%, with markets looking through the ECB’s 25bp hike given it was already priced in beforehand. For equities this provided a strong backdrop, as positive geopolitical headlines and easing inflation fears supported optimism on the near-term outlook. So the S&P 500 managed to pare back some of the previous week’s decline, with a weekly gain of +0.65% (+0.50% Friday). And over in Europe, there were even stronger gains for the STOX 600, which rose +1.69% (+1.88% Friday). In the tech space, there was another big gain for the Philly semiconductor index, which rose +9.42% last week, but that followed a -10.26% decline on the previous Friday, so the index was still beneath its levels prior to that slump. Meanwhile, rotation away from mega caps saw the Mag-7 fall by -2.54%. Some other assets also saw less favorable moves. In Germany, the DAX fell -0.50%, making it a relative underperformer in Europe, while Japan’s Nikkei fell -0.85%. Otherwise, HY credit spreads widened on both sides of the Atlantic, with US HY up +1bps and Euro HY up +18bps, though IG spreads were more sanguine, with US IG down -1bps and Euro IG flat. And gold fell -2.52% to its lowest weekly close of 2026 at $4,219/oz. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 08:20

Sources

Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

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Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US

○ 1 source

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US This is ‘the first step in permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran’, said US Vice-President J.D. Vance Tehran has agreed to invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country, US Vice-President J.

D. Vance said on Monday, after a first round of US-Iran talks towards ending the Middle East war. “The Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country,” Vance told reporters at Switzerland’s isolated Burgenstock resort, where his talks with Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf opened on Sunday.

“That is a major milestone for the American people and the first step in permanently denuclearising or permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran,” he said. The IAEA estimates that Iran had 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60 per cent – close to the level needed for a bomb.

Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA after Israel and the US launched a previous wave of attacks in June 2025, and inspectors have not seen the material since.

Agence France-Presse

Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxyEUChina

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

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Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

Futures are modestly lower coming off the US holiday weekend, after equities finished higher last week with both Dow and Russell clocking new ATHs and SPX finishing in the green for the 11th time in the last 12 weeks. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures edged down 0.1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts are higher by 0.1% with chips outperforming as usual while hyperscalers, aka "check payers" down as all Mag 7 are lower with TSLA (-1.4%) and GOOGL (-1.6%; Google’s DeepMind VP John Jumper is leaving the company to join Anthropic) being the biggest laggards. Overseas, Asian markets mostly higher overnight with China and Japan the big gainers, up over 1.5%. European markets higher, up ~0.3%. Big development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Donald Trump again threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel, & US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In the UK, PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. Bond yields are 2-4bp higher, while the USD is largely unchanged. WTI crude fell $-0.58 to $75.27 reversing all earlier gains while Brent traded around $79. Gold and silver are higher as is bitcoin. There is little on the corporate calendar and scant macro data, leaving traders with little direction until Micron’s earnings due Wednesday and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Thursday take center stage. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

In premarket trading, SpaceX shares slid more than 5% in premarket trading, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. Meanwhile, the semi meltup continues: chipmakers including Intel rallied. Getty Images soared more than 300% after inking a display partnership with ChatGPT owner OpenAI. Here are the notable premarket movers:

Alphabet (GOOGL) -1.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -1.3%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.9%, Apple (AAPL) -0.8%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.4% Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) climbs 48% after AbbVie agreed to buy the company for $10.9 billion to bolster its anti-inflammatory portfolio amid growing competition for its best-selling drug. Arcosa (ACA) gains 7% after CRH said it has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of the provider of building materials in an all-cash transaction for $150 per share. Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) gains 32% after announcing positive topline results from a Phase 3 study evaluating a single dose of an orally disintegrating tablet in adults with major depressive disorder. Fervo Energy (FRVO) gains 8% after the geothermal-energy company agreed with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Nvidia to develop a digital twin platform for Enhanced Geothermal Systems technology. Getty Images (GETY) soars 156% after the company announced a display partnership With OpenAI. Regenxbio (RGNX) climbs 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the FDA has agreed to reverse the rejection of the firm’s rare-disease drug. SpaceX (SPCX) is down 5%, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. A peppering of M&A and ECM news is spicing up an otherwise quiet Monday morning. Budget airline EasyJet has rejected three offers by US private credit giant Castlelake. AbbVie is closing in on a nearly $11 billion deal to buy inflammatory disease drug developer Apogee Therapeutics, according to the FT, which also reports that building materials group Arcosa could be close to a takeout by larger rival CRH. SpaceX kicked off its debut US dollar high-grade bond offering expected to be at least $25 billion.

The big geopolitical development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Oil traders took comfort from evidence of progress in Middle East talks even as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran if Hezbollah militants continue to attack Israel. Vance said the warring sides set up a mechanism to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, while Iran agreed to invite nuclear inspectors.

“Even during the midst of the conflict in the Middle East, equities still priced a positive outcome,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “It seems logical that markets don’t rally too hard on something which they had already priced to a fair degree.”

Traders also followed the latest developments in UK politics as Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. The departure of Starmer is putting Britain on course for its seventh premier in a decade and paving the way for Andy Burnham to replace him. The former mayor of Manchester announced his candidacy hours after Starmer’s resignation and received the backing of Wes Streeting, a potential rival. Starmer said nominations for a new Labour leader will open July 9 and that a contest will be finalized by Sept. 1. The question for investors is about the impact on the UK’s finances if Burnham were to become prime minister. A slew of all-but-forgotten niche option positions betting on an oil glut are coming back into play as crude cools.

“Markets would be watching for Burnham’s pick of Chancellor,” wrote Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “The fear is that Burnham’s policies are left-leaning and if the new chancellor is not credible, it would raise concerns over deficits and borrowing.”

The AI trade still works and investors should keep it, say Goldman Sachs traders in charge of thematic investing, baskets and equity structuring.

In geopolitics, China has imposed export controls against US rare earth firms, in response to the Pentagon’s accusations against some of China’s biggest companies supporting the Chinese military.

Meanwhile, Trump’s administration is rolling out new tools with the same protectionist goals after the Supreme Court ruled his sweeping global tariffs to be illegal. The rising cost of living, and corruption, are shaping up to be major campaign battlefronts in races that will determine control of the US Congress.

Bond traders, recently forced to reposition for the possibility of higher interest rates ahead, are looking to Thursday’s US personal consumption expenditures price index for a read on whether the market’s hawkish stance is warranted. Forecasters expect the index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, to show acceleration on both a monthly and year-over-year basis in May. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is due to speak later on Monday. Bloomberg Economics’ head Anna Wong expects a hot PCE reading will likely reinforce the hawkish tilt by the Fed at its June meeting.

Ahead of Micron’s earnings, a leveraged ETF linked to rival SK Hynix is lifting an option cap. Rising leverage is also showing up in FINRA’s margin debt statistics, and the Roundhill DRAM ETF has recorded 19 straight days of inflows and AUM surpassed $20 billion. Micron’s fiscal 3Q revenue may exceed consensus by about 13% and guidance by 18%, notes BI.

European stocks struggled to derive much benefit with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1%, with construction and media stocks leading declines, while technology and energy shares are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

Infineon shares rise as much as 5.3%, after CFO Sven Schneider maintained his bullish stance on the chipmaker’s growth over the next few years, while Bernstein increased its price target for the stock EasyJet shares rise as much as 5.4% to the highest level in almost a year after the British budget carrier rejected a third takeover proposal from US investment firm Castlelake BioArctic jumps as much as 10%, the most in more than four months, after the Swedish biopharma company signed a research and collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly for its BrainTransporter technology LISI gains as much as 7.6%, reaching a record high, as Berenberg initiates on the component maker with a buy rating, citing entrenched positions in automotive and aerospace fasteners Sanofi shares slip as much as 2.1%, making them the biggest laggard by index points in the Stoxx 600’s healthcare subgroup on Monday morning Babcock shares fall as much as 5.7%, the most since February, as the defense contractor posts full-year results UBS shares are slide as much as 0.6%, falling for a second straight session after being downgraded at Zuercher Kantonalbank on valuation grounds, with the Swiss bank having hit a fresh 2008-high last Thursday Asian stocks surged to a record as chipmakers and other artificial intelligence-linked firms rallied amid optimism surrounding US-Iran peace talks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, with information technology the top performing sector. Markets in Taiwan, mainland China and Japan led regional gains. Continued interest in AI and semiconductor plays drove Taiwan’s benchmark to a record high. South Korea’s memory maker SK Hynix also rose to an all-time high on expectations over its planned ADR listing, helping to erase earlier losses in the Kospi gauge. Meanwhile, equities in Hong Kong underperformed, as weak consumption data weighed on sentiment and investors chased the AI rally elsewhere. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in the city was headed for a bear market before trimming some losses.

“We continue seeing liquidities leaving ‘old Techs’ in Hong Kong including Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu to chase AI-related stocks in Japan, Korea and Taiwan,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian.

In FX, the pound is down a handful of pips near its year-to-date low. The yen is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.3% against the greenback.

In rates, treasuries decline, pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.48% as trading resumes after Friday’s US cash-market holiday. US yields are 2bp-4bp higher on the day with losses led by front-end tenors, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s by 0.5bp and 1.5bp respectively. 10-year around 4.48% is cheaper by 3bp with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 5bp and 6.5bp. European bonds outperform led by gilts after Wes Streeting backed Andy Burnham to be new UK Prime Minister, removing a key uncertainty after Keir Starmer’s resignation. Oil trades lower on signs of diplomatic headway between the US and Iran. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few items so far. Dealers forecast about $50 billion of US investment-grade bond sales this week, likely to include a jumbo bond offering from SpaceX. Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with $69 billion 2-year notes, followed by 5- and 7-year note sales Wednesday and Thursday

In commodities, Brent crude futures fall 1.6% after Iran said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the US. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% near session lows after US Vice President Vance says Hormuz is open and talks with Iran have made progress. Precious metals advance, with spot silver rising 2%.

US event calendar: US economic data calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

The U.S. and Iran made progress during talks in Switzerland on Monday toward reaching a final deal within 60 days, including the agreement to establish a committee and a mechanism to end hostilities in Lebanon. CNBC The US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. BBG UK PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation and outlined plans for a successor to take office by September. The move clears the way for Andy Burnham to become Britain’s seventh PM in a decade. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting said he backed Burnham to become PM. The pound hovered near its weakest level of the year while gilts were little changed. BBG China announced on Monday that it will add 10 American firms to its export control list, including two rare earth firms, while also restricting 46 US firms from government procurement, signalling it would respond to Washington’s recent expansion of a military blacklist, even amid a broader stabilization of bilateral ties. SCMP South Korea’s exports jumped again in early June, thanks to AI fueling a sustained boom in the semiconductor sector. BBG Chevron signed a 20-year deal with Microsoft to supply natural-gas fired power to a planned West Texas data center that may become one of the largest in the US. BBG Semis are on pace to finish as the most net bought global subsector for a second straight year, with net allocations now at record highs. GS Prime Brokerage Major investors warned that Fed Chair Warsh’s push to axe the Fed’s guidance on the direction of monetary policy could increase volatility in the Treasury market and drive borrowing costs higher: FT. Hong Kong is in talks with Chinese authorities to expand cross-border investment channels and grant mainland buyers access to local IPOs. BBG Colombia elected Trump ally Abelardo de la Espriella president by a razor-thin margin. The preliminary result was immediately challenged by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, who backed rival candidate Senator Iván Cepeda. BBG US Secretary of State Rubio congratulates Colombia's presidential candidate De la Espriella who leads against leftist rival Cepeda following the Colombian election. Democrats are set to make corruption a major campaign battlefront in the midterms as polling suggests voters are eager to see lawmakers take on conflicts of interest and self-enrichment by leaders. BBG US Southern Command announces that Task Force Southern Spear has conducted a strike on a vessel operated by designated terrorist organisations in the Caribbean. US Secretary of State Rubio plans trip to the Middle East next week: Kuwait, UAE and Bahrain at the moment: Axios US President Trump told Axios that he doesn’t see Anthropic PBC as a national security threat, despite his administration recently taking steps to cut off foreign access to the tech company’s most advanced AI models. Furthermore, Trump said that it was seen as a threat last week, but relations have improved since with the AI giant. US Department of Agriculture announced three new cases of screwworm to take the total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iran Headlines: Latest News

US and Iran talks opened in Switzerland on Sunday after US VP Vance arrived in Switzerland and the Iranian delegation led by chief negotiator Ghalibaf, which included Foreign Minister Araghchi, arrived on Saturday, while Pakistan’s Premier Sharif and military chief Munir travelled to Switzerland to join the US-Iran talks. Iran's delegation reportedly left the negotiation site in protest against statements by US President Trump, while Fars also reported that Iran halted talks with the US after Trump threatened strikes over Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon. Iran said Trump’s threat is a blatant violation of the MoU and halted talks in Switzerland, while it is reviewing a response to Trump’s threats. However, sources cited by Al Hadath later stated that the Iranian delegation had not left the negotiation headquarters at the Burgenstock resort and the Iranian delegation head discussed a joint statement draft with mediators. US President Trump threatened to resume bombing and take over the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is not reached, while Trump said the US may take tolls if it has to and that he has a 60-day option, in which he can do whatever after it. Trump stated he spoke with Iranian officials and used expletive language in the call with Iranian officials on Hormuz, as well as threatened that they won’t have a country if Hormuz is closed, according to Fox. US President Trump posted that Iran must immediately stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble, or else the US would hit Iran very hard again, “just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Trump separately commented that there will be no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, unless they are imposed by the US. UKMTO reported an incident in which a cargo vessel was approached by a craft with six armed persons onboard 92 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Mukalla in the Gulf of Aden. Israeli army chief said the Lebanon ceasefire is fragile and forces remain ready for combat. Israeli military convoy reportedly entered southern Syria’s Quneitra region, near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Qatar and Pakistan issue joint statement on conclusion of US-Iran talks in Switzerland, while Qatar said first session of the US-Iran high level talks has concluded and that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere. said:. Technical talks are to continue for remainder of the week. US and Iran agreed to de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Encouraging progress has been made, including creation of a mechanism for further technical talks. Parties agree to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. High-level committee agrees on roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days. "The negotiations of the main Iranian delegation in Switzerland have ended, however, experts are still in Switzerland and are following up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding", Tasnim reported citing sources. Iranian negotiating team member said executive procedures about the release of Iranian frozen funds have taken place with the Qatari delegation and that a draft has been finalised regarding waivers of Iranian oil sanctions, which will be issued soon, although negotiations about other subjects will not take place if the war does not end in Lebanon. "No negotiations have taken place on the nuclear file so far", Tasnim reported citing a source. US diplomat said talks included robust discussions on a nuclear deal and enforcing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, while talks also involved clarifying the messaging on the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, a US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, and that mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Pakistani Army Chief said negotiating parties reached success stage, according to Al Arabiya. US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, adds mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Sources cited by Al Arabiya said an anticipated statement will be issued by the Iranian and American negotiators and the mediators. Sources cited by Al Hadath stated that the Iranian delegation has not left the negotiation headquarters at the Bürgenstock resort and Iranian delegation head discusses joint statement draft with mediators. Tasnim reported Iranian delegation refused to return to negotiations but message exchanges continue through intermediaries. Iranian Commentary:

Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted Pakistani and Qatari mediation delivered major progress to end Lebanon War, oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran. Iran's Foreign Ministry said the technical team is to continue work, but negotiation delegation work has concluded, adds significant progress achieved in quadrilateral talks in Switzerland. Spokesman said groundwork for starting negotiations for the final agreement was discussed. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is working on safe passage mechanism for Hormuz and that Iran reported progress on oil sales and asset unfreezing, adds the war in all fronts, including Lebanon, must end. Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said the US is responsible for Israel's actions in Lebanon and Iran will hold the US accountable in the event of a threat against Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi to lead the technical team in Switzerland, Sky News Arabia reported. Iran resumed oil loading from Kharg Island after about a six-week halt, following the lifting of the US blockade of its ports. Lebanon/Israel:

Al Jadeed News cites Haaretz source stating the Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the Blue Line in Lebanon. Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the yellow line (buffer zone), Al Jazeera reported, citing Israel's Haaretz sources. Israeli Foreign Minister Saar told his New Zealand counterpart, "Israel will respect the ceasefire in Lebanon as long as it won’t be breached by Hezbollah.". Israeli political and security cabinet will convene on Thursday amid US-Iran talks, N12 reported. Israeli officials are dismissing reported of an agreement to withdraw from certain points in southern Lebanon, amid a lack of US pressure to do, Maariv's Barsky reported. Officials add, "because in Washington they understand the Israeli position: no partial withdrawal, no point-specific withdrawal, and no diplomatic 'gesture'.". And, "as long as the Hezbollah threat persists, there is no change in the deployment of forces and no intention to relinquish the security positions in southern Lebanon.". Lebanese presidency discussed the issue of consolidating the ceasefire in Lebanon, in a call with Qatari PM and US's Vance. Other:

Two South Korean vessels were said to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran signed a ceasefire MoU. Three India-linked supertankers re-emerged in the Gulf of Oman, which suggests an increase in traffic through the waterway. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with price action choppy following the recent conflicting headlines concerning US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, as the Iranian delegation was said to have walked out of talks following Trump's renewed threats to resume bombing them if a deal is not reached and if they don't stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. However, the reports that gradually followed were more encouraging as mediators stated that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere and technical talks are to continue for the remainder of the week, with the US and Iran agreeing to a de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Furthermore, the parties agreed to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation and on a roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days, while Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed that mediation delivered major progress to end the Lebanon war, as well as stated that oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade is lifted, frozen assets released, and that a major reconstruction and development plan was launched for Iran. ASX 200 struggled for direction as strength in gold miners and financials was offset by weakness in tech, energy and defensives. Nikkei 225 extended on record highs and rallied firmly above the 72,000 level as exporters benefited from a weaker currency and a pullback in oil, although the index has pared some of the gains, but comfortably remained the outperformer. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid a divergence between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, in which the latter took over the throne as South Korea’s largest Co. by market cap. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with sentiment not helped by trade frictions after China added 10 US firms to its export control list and announced to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities, while there was a lack of surprises from the announcement that the benchmark Loan Prime Rates were maintained for a 13th consecutive month.

Top Asian News

The Japanese Government is reportedly planning to deploy JPY 68tln in public and private funding for the semiconductor sector by FY 2040, TV Asahi reported citing sources. Australia's Agricultural Minister said testing has confirmed H5 bird flu detected in a second bird found in Western Australia. China's Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said risk of fragmented supply chains is growing and that some countries abuse use of export controls, adds China is anchor of stability and propeller of the global economy. said: Can work with all sides to build inclusive supply chains. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary, but declines to comment on particular forex rates. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) began the session on a muted footing, as markets digest the volatile geopolitical situation (see above). European sectors began the session mixed. Tech tops the pile with ASML +1.5% after it denied shipping EUV lithography machines, or any related component, to China, following US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s accusations. Citi this morning wrote “we find it very hard to believe that they would jeopardise their position in the industry”. The sectoral laggard is Construction, one of its largest constituents Holcim -1.0% (9% weighting), after RBC downgraded Holcim’s PT, citing the completion of the acquisition of Xella and an update to Q2 results model

Top European News

UK PM Starmer announces he will step down; nominations for Labour leader will open on 9th July, conclude by end-summer; will act as caretaker until new leader elected. Will fully support whoever takes over. UK PM's Chief of Staff resigns, New Statesman reported. UK Minister Smith said "I would have been very happy for him to continue", in reference to PM Starmer. UK Foreign Minister Cooper urges UK PM Starmer to resign, according to Sky News. Ireland said EU capital markets deal is possible by year end, according to FT. Italian PM Meloni called out US President Trump for “senseless”, “constant, unprovoked attacks”, while she said that Trump’s statements are completely made up and she doesn’t know why he behaves like this towards allies, after Trump told an Italian TV channel that Meloni begged him to take a picture with her and that he wouldn’t have taken it, but he felt sorry for her. Furthermore, Trump criticised Italy and its PM for not becoming involved with Iran and its nuclear threat. FX

DXY is firmer against all peers as it stabilises towards recent highs above 100. JPY is the underperformer after unsuccessful jawboning attempts, NOK holds on to gains after crude gapped higher at the re-open. USD-specific drivers are light, focus overnight was on geopolitics with US-Iran talks over the weekend whipsawing crude benchmarks. The main data point this week is PCE on Thursday, the session today sees remarks from Fed's Waller, aside from this, the session is likely to be quiet and driven by geopolitical moves in oil/yields. DXY gapped higher at the APAC re-open and rose throughout the European morning to a peak of 101.01. Since this peak, the index has slipped and now more towards the unchanged mark. UK PM Starmer announces he will step down, remaining as a caretaker until a new leader is elected (Nominations begin on 9th July). Burnham is overwhelmingly considered as the front-runner, with GBP and Gilts seeing underperformance in recent weeks. There was no reaction to the announcement from Starmer himself, as it had been widely touted in recent days/weeks, especially following Burnham's convincing victory in the Makerfield by-election. Given Burnham is nearly certain to become the next PM, focus is on his cabinet appointments, specifically his Chancellor pick. Over the weekend, the FT and Times made it clear that Miliband would be the least market friendly, citing comments from FTSE 100 executives; retaining Reeves would be the most market-friendly option, though the same outlets noted Burnham would likely want to remove the current Chancellor in a shift away from the last administration. GBP/USD -0.1% and tracking the stronger Buck. EUR/GBP +0.1%, gapped higher at the APAC re-open, but reversed most gains. JPY continues to underperform and moves further into intervention territory as USD/JPY looks towards 161.81 highs made last week. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires overnight, said they were “ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary”; not sparking a move in the Yen. USD/JPY marked a session high of 161.78, looking to the aforementioned levels to the upside; awaiting further comments from Japanese officials. South African Parliamentary Speaker Didiza plans to support President Ramaphosa’s bid to halt his impeachment proceedings. Central Banks

Japan's PM Takaichi said expect BoJ to closely coordinate with the government and conduct a monetary policy appropriately to achieve the 2% price goal. BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said takes some time for policy to have an impact on the economy. said:. Pass-through from oil prices to downstream goods has progressed somewhat rapidly. Recent easing of Middle East tensions doesn't deviate much from their April outlook. Accommodative conditions are expected to continue. Risks of price overshoot could materialise if there is a delay in the necessary adjustment in the degree of monetary easing. Will closely monitor impacts that raising policy interest rates may have on businesses and households. ECB's Escriva warns that rising oil and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict are feeding into consumer prices and could cause wage spillovers. said energy cost increases are already transmitting through areas such as transport services. ECB must monitor possible second-round wage effects depending on inflation persistence. Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%). Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%). SNB adjusts remuneration of sight deposits; lowering threshold factor from 15 to 13.5; effective August 1st 2026. Fixed Income

Fixed benchmarks are mixed. USTs in the red by around 10 ticks, but off a 109-07 trough by another five. USTs lower as a function of catch-up from the holiday session on Friday, and as the complex acknowledged the gap higher in energy at the resumption of trade after Iran seemingly shut Hormuz transit amid ongoing conflict in Lebanon. However, the updates from negotiators thereafter and as technical talks take place this week in Switzerland, points that allowed energy to retreat and gave relief to EGBs. USTs look ahead to remarks from Fed’s Waller. Bunds, as above, benefited from the energy retreat in the second half of the APAC session and are firmer by around 10 ticks, but a similar amount shy of the 126.34 high. Specifics light for the complex, no move to ECB commentary thus far, and we now await text from Lagarde at the ECON hearing. Additionally, Germany digests reports into another meeting of the pensions committee today. The main point from it being that the retirement age will increase, though not at the pace some have been seeking. More broadly, Politico reports budget progress, however, tax reform remains the major outstanding point. Last but not least Gilts, lower by 10 ticks and a similar amount of the low in 88.30-72 confines after gapping higher by 24 ticks, seemingly taking relief from numerous reports that the team around Burnham no longer saw Miliband as the favourite for Chancellor. Since, PM Starmer has resigned. He will serve as caretaker during the process which begins in three weeks and will last for no more than one week, 9th-16th July. Burnham is the clear favourite. However, the three weeks between now and the start of that process could potentially see the odds around Burnham and theoretical rivals, i.e. Streeting, change notably. Geopolitics

A very busy geopolitical weekend, which initially saw the Iranians shut the Strait of Hormuz, and it suggested that the US and Israel broke the interim ceasefire agreement amid the continued military strikes on southern Lebanon. This led Brent Aug’26 to gap higher by c. USD 2/bbl, to a session peak of USD 82.30/bbl. Attention then turned to US-Iran talks in Switzerland. The outcome of the initial talks were positive. A Qatari and Pakistani joint statement stated that US and Iran agreed to set up a de-confliction cell over Lebanon and agreed to establish a high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. The high-level committee also agreed to a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days. Following the positive mood music from the talks, Brent Aug’26 gradually moved off best levels and turned negative; currently lower by c. 1.1%, and at the bottom end of a USD 78.58-82.30/bbl range. Attention remains on further developments on the negotiation process, which is expected to continue throughout the week. For now, the heads of the delegation team have headed back to Iran, while technical teams will remain in Switzerland to follow up the implementation of the MoU. Spot gold (+0.8%) is in the green, benefiting from the disinflationary implications of the positive geopolitical mood music. XAU/USD is currently holding within a USD 4136-4221/oz range. On analyst commentary: Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40T a month in 2027. Base metals are broadly firmer this morning vs a mostly negative APAC session. Focus overnight remained on China adding US firms to its export control list and decided to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. 3M LME Copper currently resides within a USD 13,598.28-13,736.93/t range. "Confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone rose sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 total transits recorded", Kpler's Bakr reported. Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50 T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40 T a month in 2027. US Department of Agriculture announces three new cases of screwworm to take total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iraq asked operators of five major oil fields to boost output to pre-war levels, targeting output of more than 3mln bpd, while it was separately reported that Iraq intends to gradually increase oil production to between 4.2mln-4.3mln bpd, according to the deputy oil minister for upstream affairs. Qatar’s Interior Ministry reported an internal explosion at a factory in the Ras Laffan Industrial Area, although no injuries or leaks were reported. A fire occurred in Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery (631k bpd) but was extinguished. Guinea’s President Doumbouya announced a ban on raw gold exports, in an effort to boost local processing of the metal and help the domestic economy. Trade/Tariffs

Iranian delegation is set to travel to Tehran after talks in Switzerland. India's Trade Minister said they intend to secure preferential market access via a trade agreement with the US. Signing of a US-India trade agreement will take longer than expected, because the US initially imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods. China's MOFCOM issues action plan on strengthening foreign Investment; to support qualified key foreign firms listing on domestic exchanges. China added 10 US firms to its export control list including USA Rare Earths, while the Finance Ministry announcing to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. USTR Greer is to travel to India and Uzbekistan, while he will discuss the US-India joint statement as part of bilateral trade agreement talks. US Event Calendar

9:00 am: Fed’s Waller Delivers Opening Remarks DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

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Talking of extreme heat, the latest developments out of the Middle East have turned more constructive after a highly volatile start to the weekend. Encouraging progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, has seen both sides agree overnight to a roadmap towards a potential deal within 60 days, alongside the creation of technical working groups, a de conflict mechanism covering Lebanon, and a direct communication line aimed at avoiding incidents and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. This marks a notable shift from Saturday’s confusion, when Iran suggested the strait was now closed again after Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and briefly stepped back from talks following renewed threats from President Trump, who reiterated that the US would strike again if Iranian-backed proxies in Lebanon continue attacks on Israel. Despite that rhetoric, oil flows through Hormuz have continued and even picked up over the weekend, helping to calm markets, with Brent reversing earlier gains this morning before details of the talks came through. What the overall positive weekend has perhaps taught us is that the path to a durable resolution remains fragile.

However, for now Brent crude (-1.61%) is reversing its earlier gains, currently trading at $79.27 per barrel. Asian equities are not seeing a clear trend with the Nikkei (+1.56%) notably higher, but with the KOSPI fairly flat after being up +2% earlier in the session. The Shanghai Comp is +0.18%, while the Hang Seng is down -0.98%. China's central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates for the 13th consecutive month overnight.

10-year USTs have increased by +3.2 bps, trading at 4.49% as cash trading has resumed following Friday's US holiday. 2yr yields are +4.7bps. US equity futures are down around half a percentage point but that's roughly where they were for a lot of Friday when the cash market was closed.

The main data highlights this week are the global flash PMIs tomorrow, and the US core PCE on Thursday. Elsewhere, other data of interest include the Ifo survey in Germany (Wednesday), Tokyo CPI in Japan (Friday), and CPI reports in Canada (today) and Australia (Wednesday). Note there is much speculation around whether UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will resign this week after leadership rival Andy Burnham’s by-election win last week. The Observer newspaper yesterday reported that Starmer was preparing to set out a timetable for his departure, with an announcement possible today. If true it’s notable it's happening on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote tomorrow, something the UK still hasn’t come to terms with. Since then, the UK has revolved through six Prime Ministers which alongside Brexit, underlines the immense difficulties many incumbents have in the Western World today. Everyone arrives in the post with great hopes but then the lack of growth and the financial realities hit. Until you have stronger economic growth and are less constrained by debt it’s highly likely the conveyor belt of PMs will continue.

On this, the Deutsche Bank Research Institute will be pleased to welcome you to our London offices on Thursday (11:30 refreshments for a 12-1 presentation) for a look at “Brexit 10 years on: Whats’s worked, what hasn’t, what’s next?”. I’ll be introducing Sanjay Raja and Shreyas Gopal in what looks set to be a fascinating week for the UK.

Moving over to the other side of the Atlantic, after a hawkish FOMC last week with a clear shift in style from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, our economists now have two 25bps hikes in their Fed forecast. They have warned that the US economy needed tighter policy but were waiting for the meeting to confirm the tightening view. The central scenario sees two rate increases this year, likely in September and December, taking the fed funds rate to around 4.1%, followed by a prolonged pause through 2027. Easing is then expected to resume in the first half of 2028, with around 50 basis points of cuts, potentially delivered in March and June, bringing policy back towards a neutral range of roughly 3.5–3.75%. See their piece explaining their view here.

In terms of the US week ahead, our economists expect appearances by Williams and Goolsbee on Thursday to be particularly informative. Williams, who also serves as Vice Chair of the FOMC, is seen as one of those not currently predicting a hike this year, while Goolsbee is viewed as leaning towards around 50 basis points of tightening.

Earlier that day, attention will centre on the data flow. US economists expect May personal income to rise by around 0.4% (from flat previously) and consumption to increase by 0.6% (from 0.5%). The core PCE deflator is projected to rise by around 0.37% month-on-month, up from 0.24%. On this basis, the year-on-year rate would move higher to approximately 3.44%, marking the strongest reading since October 2023 and reinforcing the narrative of persistent underlying inflation. The Fed will also release its bank stress test results on Wednesday and there is other second tier data.

Over in Europe, in addition to the PMIs, sentiment indicators in Germany will include the Ifo survey (Wednesday) and the July GfK consumer confidence print (Thursday). In France, there will be business confidence tomorrow and consumer confidence on Thursday. Finally, the ECB will release its May consumer expectations survey on Friday, with inflation expectations in focus. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde amongst others.

In Asia, inflation prints due include the Tokyo CPI for June on Friday in Japan (see our Chief Japan’s economist week-ahead here) and Australia’s May CPI due Wednesday (DB forecast for headline CPI is -0.4% MoM / 4.3% YoY). Other notable data features BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its June meeting (Wednesday), Australia’s labour force survey (Thursday) and the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates in China (Monday).

Finally, there will be a few notable earnings reports out next week, including FedEx, Cerebras and Carnival tomorrow as well as Micron and Jefferies on Wednesday. Micron is up around 830% over the last year and around 250% since the end of March with a market cap of nearly $1.3tn. So it’s becoming one to follow from the macro side.

Recapping last week, oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.

But even as inflation expectations fell, the Fed’s latest decision on Wednesday led to a clear hawkish repricing for markets. Notably, 9 of the 18 officials in the dot plot signalled there should be a rate hike this year, although new Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot himself. But Warsh did reiterate the Fed’s inflation target, pledging to return inflation to target after five years above. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan delivered a 25bp rate hike, taking their policy rate to a post-1995 high of 1%.

That backdrop meant markets brought forward their expectations for a Fed rate hike. So by the end of the week, 39bps of Fed hikes were priced in by December, up from 21bps at the start of the week. In turn, that led to a flattening in the Treasury yield curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +9.6bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) fell to 4.45%. A similar pattern was evident globally, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+2.7bps) up to 2.64%, whilst the 10yr yield (-1.0ps) fell to 2.98%.

Whilst equities saw a pullback after the Fed decision, they still ended the week higher as concern about a stagflationary shock faded. So the S&P 500 was up +0.93%, Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei surged by +7.92%, marking its biggest weekly jump since August 2024. The moves were supported by the ongoing rebound in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.26% to a new record.

Recapping last week now and oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 08:26

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