The Hormuz blockade: Why a fragile ceasefire may not lower global oil prices

Ship Traffic Through Hormuz Chokepoint Continues As Normalization Efforts Remain "Fragile"

U.S. and Iranian negotiators concluded a lengthy initial round of technical talks, backed by Qatar and Pakistan, with early progress reported. Still, the diplomatic road to a permanent peace deal remains fragile. For now, despite Tehran declaring on Sunday that the Strait was "closed," millions of barrels of crude continue to exit the Persian Gulf through the critical maritime chokepoint.

Bloomberg reports that five laden oil tankers carrying a combined 8 million barrels were seen entering or moving through the strait along the southern part of the Hormuz near Oman's coast before switching off their transponders. One tanker reappeared hours later in the Gulf of Oman, marking a safe passage.

The transits suggest CENTCOM's claim that U.S. forces can keep the Omani-side corridor of the maritime chokepoint open, despite Iran's assertion that only the northern, Tehran-approved route is permitted.

Safe passage through the international waterway remained intact today as 55 merchant ships transited, moving large amounts of cargo and more than 17 million barrels of oil to global markets," CENTCOM wrote on X on Saturday morning.

Kpler:

Hormuz uptick remains fragile Strait of Hormuz crossings rebounded sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 confirmed transits and a weekend peak of 35 on 20 June, supported by the blockade lift and renewed free-passage signals. Commercial crossings recovered with AIS transponder ons,… pic.twitter.com/2YnT6kTnU3 — Kpler (@Kpler) June 22, 2026 Windward:

🚨 Strait of Hormuz Status Update | June 22 Windward tracked 25 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past 12 hours: 10 inbound and 15 outbound. Notable traffic: → Multiple OFAC-sanctioned tankers linked to Iran's sanctions program transiting outbound,… pic.twitter.com/D4Czk5ygVl — Windward (@WindwardAI) June 22, 2026 Several India-linked tankers carrying roughly 6 million barrels of Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude appeared to have used the Iran-approved northern route near Qeshm Island, possibly before Iran's latest closure announcement on Sunday.

A separate report from Bloomberg says four liquefied natural gas tankers - either owned or chartered by Qatar - transited the narrow waterway as the restart of Ras Laffan, the world's biggest LNG export plant, begins to ramp up.

Even Iran has ramped up oil exports, as three US-sanctioned supertankers (Elva, Virgo, and Vigor) entered the Hormuz chokepoint earlier this morning. Those tankers are destined for Singapore, with likely ship-to-ship transfers slated for the end delivery in China. This comes as the US lifts the blockade on the waterway against Iran.

Bloomberg data shows that total ship transits (using AIS data) in the maritime chokepoint, whether east-west or west-east, have steadily increased since an interim peace deal between the US and Iran was signed earlier last week.

Citi analyst Luis Costa told clients earlier that "the dominant global macro driver remains the US-Iran conflict and its partial resolution. Announcement of the interim Hormuz MOU last week set off a cascading repricing across oil, EM FX, inflation expectations, and rate paths."

Brent crude futures traded in the $79 a barrel range early Monday, while WTI futures were around $75.

Talk on Hormuz normalization this morning comes from Piper Sandler analyst Jan Stuart: "The 14-point 'peace-in-our-time MoU' unblocks some 150+ million barrels of stranded crude oil, now available for immediate sale."

Related:

Asian Refiners Swamped, Brace For Over 60 Million Barrels Of Oil Ready To Exit Hormuz On Friday, Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs' co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients, "We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre- war levels by the end of July."

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 07:45

A viral video from high-stakes US-Iran talks in Switzerland appears to show JD Vance being seemingly overlooked by Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and social media wasted no time calling it a “snub.” The clip, widely circulated online, shows the Qatari Prime Minister walking into a reception area where global leaders had gathered.

Instead of greeting Vance, who stood nearby, Sheikh Mohammed moved past him and warmly embraced Shehbaz Sharif. That single move, intentional or not, quickly became a talking point. While the internet framed it as an awkward diplomatic slight, there’s no official confirmation that it was a deliberate snub.

Still, in the world of global politics, even a few seconds of footage can shape narratives. The incident unfolded during crucial negotiations involving the US, Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan, aimed at building on a fragile ceasefire framework. Qatar has been playing a key mediating role, describing the ongoing process as “cautiously optimistic” but far from final.

Qatar snubs JD Vance. America is a laughing stock. pic.twitter.com/O1QflIqh0V— Ed Krassenstein (@EdKrassen) June 21, 2026 Meanwhile, tensions remain high. Donald Trump issued strong warnings to Iran, stating: “Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble.

If they don't, we'll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Watch Qatar snub Vance. So embarrassing. pic.twitter.com/RWSpcsL5IU— 🇺🇸 Pamela Geller 🇮🇱 (@PamelaGeller) June 21, 2026 JD Vance got the cold shoulder from Iranian officials in Switzerland.

— ᗰᗩƳᖇᗩ (@LePapillonBlu2) June 21, 2026 No one respects this administration! pic.twitter.com/Vld9tYIL2a This was humiliation. No one in modern history has made America wait and beg for negotiations. This was the moment JD Vance should have returned to Washington.

The Islamic regime did this on purpose. Trump, if you don't understand politics, you should at least understand… pic.twitter.com/NVWAxr8NMH— Amjad Taha أمجد طه (@amjadt25) June 21, 2026 Qatar snub JD Vance. I love this for him. pic.twitter.com/YFcnEziFZd— Sarrah Bellus (@sarrah_bellus) June 21, 2026 The “snub” wasn’t the only eyebrow-raising moment.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reportedly avoided direct interaction with Vance as well, briefly greeting Sharif before leaving.

WASHINGTON, June 22 (Bernama-Anadolu) -- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said early Monday that negotiations with the United States (US) in Switzerland facilitated by Pakistan and Qatar had produced significant progress toward ending the war in Lebanon and easing pressure on Iran's economy, Anadolu Ajansi (AA) reported.

"Tireless Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end Lebanon War. Oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran," Araghchi said on the US social media platform X.

His remarks came right after Qatar and Pakistan announced significant progress in ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran following the conclusion of the first round of high-level talks at the Lake Lucerne Summit in Burgenstock. According to the joint statement, the parties agreed on the creation of a de-confliction cell between the parties and the Lebanese Republic, facilitated by the mediators, to ensure adherence to the termination of military operations in Lebanon according to the memorandum of understanding.

"1st real test: Lebanon deconfliction cell," Araghchi said. In a separate statement, the Iranian foreign minister framed the diplomatic developments as part of a broader national effort. "From the football pitch to the negotiating table to the battlefield, every step we take as Iranians is part of a larger struggle: defending the honour and dignity of our dear people," he said.

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