Donald Trump draws a red line in Hormuz. Will China dare cross it?

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Also Read: The Hormuz blockade is as much about China as Iran A blockade aimed at more than Iran The blockade is targeted at Iran but that's not its only target. A Bloomberg analysis argues that the move is as much about China as Iran, pointing to China’s continued purchases of Iranian crude despite past US sanctions. "The calculus in Washington appears twofold: First, impose an intolerable economic cost on Iran; second, force China to share some of the pain. If Beijing has more at stake, perhaps it will put pressure on Tehran to negotiate, or so the theory goes," says the Bloomberg analysis. Trump has already urged China to switch to US oil exports, effectively turning a military move into an economic lever. "China can send their ships to us. China can send their ships to Venezuela," Trump said on Fox's "Sunday Morning Futures". Earlier, on Saturday, he claimed in a social media post that "empty oil carrying ships from many nations are all heading to the United States of America to LOAD UP with Oil." This dual-track strategy suggests the blockade is not only about coercing Iran back to the negotiating table, but also about reshaping global energy flows in America’s favour. By targeting shipping through Hormuz, the US is exerting pressure on the very arteries that sustain China’s energy security, trying to force China to reconsider its oil import strategy. Also Read: 'Don't meddle in our affairs': China backs Iran, warns US against interference China’s oil dependence meets strategic restraint China’s dependence on Gulf oil is significant enough to unsettle it. It is among the economies most exposed to supply shocks. China’s warning that the blockade of Iranian ports is "dangerous and irresponsible", adding it would only aggravate tensions, indicates a very measured reaction at this stage. China doesn't seem to be panicking. Bloomberg has reported that China has built up sufficient inventories of Iranian crude, giving it a short-term cushion against disruptions. As per the Bloomberg report, there are about 38 million barrels of Iranian oil on vessels in Asia, with more than a third of the ships anchored in the Yellow Sea off the Chinese coast, data compiled by Kpler Ltd. shows. Overall crude inventories in Shandong province — home to most of the country’s independent processors known as teapots — have also swelled and are near the highest this year, according to OilChem. Iranian crude stored at sea provides teapots with about two-and-a-half months of supply, Emma Li, the Singapore-based lead China market analyst at Vortexa Ltd, told Bloomberg. The nation’s imports from Iran climbed to a record 1.8 million barrels a day last month, she added. This reduces China's urgency for immediate confrontation and may explain the measured tone of China’s official response, which has focused on calls for restraint rather than outright defiance. The South China Morning Post has reported that Trump’s blockade could potentially derail Trump's coming summit with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on May 14-15. The blockade “forces Beijing into a political dilemma it has spent the entire war trying to avoid”, Jesse Marks, founder of Rihla Research and Advisory, a Washington-based consultancy focused on the Middle East, told SCMP. “The longer the blockade holds, the harder it becomes for China to maintain its posture of strategic ambiguity between Washington and Tehran.” This context reinforces the idea that China has incentives to avoid escalation, at least publicly. Testing the waters without crossing the line Despite official caution, developments at sea tell a more ambiguous story. As per a Reuters report, a Chinese sanctioned tanker, Rich Starry, would be the first to make it through the strait and to exit the Gulf since the blockade began, data from LSEG and Kpler showed. The tanker and its owner Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd were sanctioned by the US for dealing with Iran. Rich Starry is a medium-range tanker that is carrying about 250,000 barrels of methanol, according to the data. It loaded the cargo at its last port of call, the UAE's Hamriyah, the data showed. The Chinese-owned tanker has Chinese crew on board, the data showed. The incident does not amount to a direct confrontation, but it does raise questions about enforcement and compliance. This is where China’s approach may become more nuanced. Rather than openly challenging the blockade, China could allow commercial actors to probe its limits. Such actions create plausible deniability while still testing how far the US is willing to go. A negotiating tactic in disguise? There is also a growing view that the blockade may not be designed to last as suggested by the timing of the move, coming immediately after failed US-Iran talks in Islamabad. That sequencing can mean that the blockade is a pressure tactic rather than a long-term military posture. If that is the case, China’s strategy may be to wait it out. By relying on stockpiles and avoiding overt escalation, it can preserve its position while the US tests Iran’s response. Given its sufficient reserve of oil, China has the flexibility to ride out short-term disruptions. At the same time, Trump’s overt pitch for China to buy American oil indicates that he is already thinking beyond the blockade itself. The endgame may lie in negotiations that redraw supply relationships rather than in sustained maritime enforcement. The risk of miscalculation Even if neither side seeks escalation, the risks are evident. The passage of a Chinese-linked tanker through Hormuz shows how quickly the situation can move from signaling to confrontation. Each such incident increases the chances of miscalculation, especially in a narrow and heavily trafficked waterway. Without adopting a defiant posture, China is calling for dialogue and stability, but its economic interests are directly affected by the blockade. If disruptions persist for long, China can get impatient. For now, China appears to be walking a tightrope. It is neither accepting the blockade outright nor openly defying it. Instead, it is probing, hedging and waiting. Whether this evolves into a direct test of US resolve will depend on how long the blockade lasts and how strictly it is enforced. If the measure proves temporary, China may never need to escalate. But if it hardens into a sustained policy, the pressure to act will grow. 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US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Iranian President to visit Pakistan on Tuesday as peace talks yield 60-day roadmap

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Advertisement US-Iran peace deal US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Iranian President to visit Pakistan on Tuesday as peace talks yield 60-day roadmap New Delhi,UPDATED: Jun 22, 2026 19:20 IST US-Iran Peace Deal News Live Updates: US-Iran diplomacy gained momentum after a marathon round of talks in Switzerland produced what mediators Pakistan and Qatar described as a roadmap for a final agreement within 60 days.

US Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors into the country and work on mechanisms covering frozen Iranian assets, regional ceasefires and the Strait of Hormuz. Vance said discussions on nuclear inspections could begin as early as this week, while technical teams will remain engaged even after Iran's top negotiators returned to Tehran following 18 hours of intensive negotiations.

The talks also established a communication channel to help ensure safe commercial shipping through Strait of Hormuz and a mechanism aimed at preventing renewed fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite the diplomatic progress, tensions remained visible.

Iran had briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, accusing the United States of failing to uphold commitments to halt fighting in Lebanon. However, mediators said discussions were held in a constructive atmosphere and yielded encouraging progress.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is set to visit Pakistan on Tuesday in a trip expected to focus on bilateral cooperation and follow-up discussions on Islamabad's mediation efforts. Meanwhile, a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon largely held, marking the longest lull in violence in three months of conflict.

Lebanese officials reported near-total adherence to the truce despite isolated incidents, while Israeli leaders insisted any final agreement must ensure Iran cannot use future financial relief to support military activities or regional proxy groups.

Follow IndiaToday.in for the latest updates....Read More Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to arrive in Pakistan on a one-day visit on Tuesday. (File Photo: Press TV) 2 Jun 22, 2026 19:20 IST US-Iran Deal: Iranian President to visit Pakistan Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will make a one-day visit to Pakistan on Tuesday, Iranian officials said.

Habib Abbasi, director-general of public relations at the presidential office, said the trip will focus on implementing previous agreements and exploring new trade opportunities. Pezeshkian is also expected to "express appreciation" for Pakistan's role in mediating between Iran and the United States, according to Tasnim news agency.

Jun 22, 2026 19:14 IST US-Iran Deal: Here's what happened so far - US Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iran made significant progress, with Tehran agreeing to allow nuclear inspectors, establish mechanisms for handling frozen assets and support efforts to manage regional ceasefires.

- Speaking after negotiations in Switzerland, Vance said discussions on nuclear inspections could begin as early as this week and confirmed that technical talks would continue in the coming days and weeks. - Iran’s senior negotiating team departed Switzerland for Tehran after 18 hours of intensive discussions, while technical experts remained behind to continue work on the Islamabad memorandum of understanding.

- Pakistan and Qatar, which mediated the talks, said Washington and Tehran agreed on a roadmap aimed at reaching a final agreement within 60 days and described the first round of negotiations as encouraging. - The two sides also agreed to establish a mechanism to help prevent clashes in Lebanon and create a communications channel to safeguard commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil supplies.

- The talks followed an interim agreement reached last week and continued despite renewed tensions after President Donald Trump threatened military action against Iran and Tehran warned Washington over its rhetoric. - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled to visit Pakistan on Tuesday for a one-day trip.

Iranian officials said he would discuss bilateral cooperation and express appreciation for Islamabad’s role in facilitating US-Iran diplomacy. - A ceasefire in Lebanon largely held on Monday, marking the longest period of relative calm in nearly three months of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, although isolated incidents were still reported.

- Lebanese security officials said adherence to the ceasefire had been "almost total" since Saturday evening, despite reports of limited Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon and drone flights over Beirut. - The conflict in Lebanon has remained a major test for the interim US-Iran agreement, with Tehran previously accusing Washington of failing to ensure an end to hostilities and briefly reimposing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

- Vance said progress had also been made toward reducing tensions in Lebanon, while negotiators worked to establish safeguards aimed at preventing future escalation. - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the release of some frozen assets and the launch of a reconstruction and development programme under the broader diplomatic framework.

- Oil prices, which surged after tensions disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, fell further after the latest round of talks, easing concerns about global supply disruptions. - Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described the negotiations as constructive and said the first round of talks had concluded successfully, laying the groundwork for a broader peace agreement.

- Israeli officials signalled support for a diplomatic resolution but stressed that any final deal must ensure Iran cannot use financial relief or released assets to fund military activities or regional proxy groups.

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