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Republicans Slam Trump for Caving to Iran in ‘Disaster’ of a Deal During the G7 conference on Wednesday, Donald Trump told reporters that while “nobody knows what it is,” his supposed deal with Iran “is very strong and most people seem to be very happy.” The deal, which is actually a 14-point “memorandum of understanding,” was made public hours later. It addresses virtually none of the Trump administration’s stated goals for the war, leaving many key points to be decided later. It calls for “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” including Lebanon, where Israel has been launching strikes, and for Iran to use its “best efforts” to open the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, and to not charge fees for 60 days. U.S. sanctions against Iran will be lifted, and the U.S. will work with regional partners to secure $300 billion in reconstruction funds for Iran. The memo calls for a final deal to be agreed upon in the next 60 days, although the deadline could be extended. Trump has made pains to insist the deal isn’t final. “It’s a memorandum of understanding, and if I don’t like it we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head,” Trump said on Wednesday. “If I don’t like it, if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head.” Many Republicans and right-wing commentators are not happy with the proposed deal. “Ronald Reagan is rolling over in his grave,” Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) — who will leave the Senate next year after losing his primary to a Trump-backed challenger — wrote on X. “Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal.” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), echoed the sentiment, telling reporters: “History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal.” Editor’s picks Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who like Cassidy will not be in the Senate next year, was a little more measured, calling the deal neither “great” nor “bad,” but noted that $300 billion potentially going to Iran is “concerning” and that the U.S. appears to be “equivocating” on some of the administration’s goals pertaining to Iran’s nuclear program. Ben Shapiro, the right-wing commentator who has been a loyal soldier to Trump’s Middle Eastern military incursions, was not so measured. The Daily Wire founder had a full-blown conniption over the memorandum of understanding. Shapiro cast most of the blame on Vice President J.D. Vance, and zeroed in on reports that Israel had not been a party to the negotiations, that the U.S. and its Gulf allies would establish a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, and that the deal will allow Iran to continue to exert financial control over the Strait of Hormuz. “We’ve been hearing from the White House, from the president that the war is over, the deal is done, but that isn’t actually the reality. It’s just not real. The White House itself acknowledges this,” Shapiro said on his Wednesday broadcast. “If we release funds, or if we tell our Arab Gulf state allies to release funds to Iran, it doesn’t have to be American taxpayer dollars, that is us releasing money to Iran. If you unfreeze money to a terrorist group, that is in fact money going to a terrorist group.” In a separate appearance on Fox News, Shapiro called the proposed deal between Iran and the U.S. a “disaster that does not achieve any of the signal goals that were set by the administration.” Related Content “There were effectively five goals that were set by the administration at the beginning. One was ending the nuclear program — not just nuclear weapons, no nuclear enrichment — zero enrichment. That is not in the deal. ‘Ballistic missiles ended,’ that is not in the deal, and the president today suggested that ballistic missiles should actually continue to be held by the Iranians.” Even the Murdoch-owned New York Post — a consistent supporter of the president and right-wing causes — came out against the deal. Thursday’s cover of the national newspaper featured a burning American flag under the headline “LOVEBOMB: Prez says Islamic regime ‘not radical,’ his deal showers mullahs with cash — and no sanctions.” Other prominent right-wing influencers including Will Chamberlain, Richard Hanania, and Piers Morgan criticized the deal on social media. The deal is “absolutely terrible,” Chamberlain wrote. “There’s no getting around it.” Trending Stories Sabrina Carpenter Granted 5-Year Restraining Order After Alleged Stalker Gives Chilling Testimony Charli XCX: ‘I Don’t Fucking Have Hobbies. This is My Life’ Harry Styles Just Delivered the Greatest Performance of His Solo Career All 100 Winners of the ‘Las Culturistas’ Culture Awards Are (Sort of) Here Trump seems to have noticed the blowback. The president took to Truth Social early Thursday morning to complain: “These fools, who think I haven’t been tough enough on Iran, when the Stock Market Just Hit A RECORD HIGH, and Oil prices are ‘tumbling’ down, are either jealous, bad people, or stupid.” The message is just steeped in confidence following a job well done, isn’t it?
Before the ink even dries on the United States-Iran memorandum of understanding, a dispute is emerging that could unravel negotiations to restore peace in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping has been at a near-standstill in the strait, a conduit for one-quarter of the world's seaborne oil, since the U.S. and Israel launched their war against the Islamic Republic on February 28. The threat of Iranian attacks sent insurance costs soaring and prompted many operators to avoid the route altogether, while vessels calling at Iranian ports faced additional complications from the U.S.-led naval blockade. The 14-point agreement, which U.S. President Donald Trump signed on Wednesday in Versailles during his visit to France for a G7 summit, commits the two countries to negotiating a more comprehensive deal within the next 60 days. When announcing the MOU on Monday, Trump wrote on Truth Social he was "authoriz[ing] the toll free opening of the waterway." Iran is to immediately begin the process of reopening the strait for the safe passage of commercial vessels, including demining operations and the removal of "technical and military obstacles, according to the MOU. Iran also must "make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa." Toll-Free? While Washington and Tehran appear to agree on toll-free transit during the initial 60-day period, they differ on whether Iran will be permitted to continue collecting fees after that two-month window expires. Since mid-March, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been running a "tollbooth" under which foreign-flagged vessels undergo a strict vetting process with the IRGC before being allowed to transit through Iranian waters after paying a fee. Trump stressed the strait will be "permanently toll-free." Vice President JD Vance told CNBC in a Monday interview that it would remain "toll-free for the long term." Iran has insisted it intends to collect maritime service fees, not tolls. The charges would offset the cost of services provided, including navigational assistance, vessel insurance, and environmental protection measures jointly administered by Iran and Oman, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told the semi-official Tasnim news agency late last month. Permanent Deal in Jeopardy Iran’s insistence on collecting services fees in the waterway likely would undermine any chance of a permanent peace deal with the U.S., according to Charlie Brown, a senior adviser at the nonprofit United Against Nuclear Iran. Tehran also may be using the issue of tolls as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from the U.S. in the upcoming talks, Brown told Newsweek. “The Iranians consider themselves experts at dragging out negotiations and continuously moving the goal posts, and seeking concessions,” Brown said. Newsweek reached out to the White House and the Iranian Foreign Ministry via email for comment. The fees could also further strain relations with at least five of the six Gulf Cooperation Council states that were targeted by Iranian retaliatory missile and drone strikes on U.S. military, economic and energy infrastructure linked to their hosting of American forces. "The Omanis may actually benefit by joining Iran in collecting a toll. The Saudis and Emiratis have options to go around the strait, but Kuwaitis, Qataris, and Bahrainis do not," Steven Cook, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in an analysis on Wednesday. "They will be forced to comply with Iranian demands or experience economic dislocation. The conflict will likely lead to additional Gulf hedging in the form of non-aggression pacts with Iran." Approximately 550 merchant ships—including 160 tankers, 200 bulk carriers, and 60 containerships—remained in the Persian Gulf Thursday, according to Lloyd's List.
Trump’s Iran gamble leaves the world wondering what comes next - The United States and Iran signed an interim agreement to end their conflict, initiating a 60-day period for further negotiations to resolve long-standing disputes. - President Donald Trump hailed the deal as a significant victory for the US, while Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, asserted it was a triumph for Tehran, achieving military objectives through diplomacy. - The agreement extends an existing ceasefire and commits Iran to not building nuclear weapons and to down-blending enriched uranium under international supervision. - Critics, including US hawks and allies of Israel, have condemned the deal as a "catastrophic capitulation" that disproportionately benefits Iran and fails to meet US objectives. - Significant challenges persist, such as ongoing Israeli military actions in Lebanon and Iran's intent to charge fees for the Strait of Hormuz, with analysts suggesting Iran holds a stronger negotiating position.
Israeli cyber unicorn valued at $3 billion aims to help governments own and control their AI Founded by Shalev Hulio, former CEO of spyware firm NSO, and ex-Austrian chancellor Kurz, Dream Security looks to secure and protect government data in the AI cyber warfare race Sharon Wrobel is a tech reporter for The Times of Israel Three and a half years after it was founded, Israeli AI cyber defense unicorn Dream Security has more than doubled its value to $3 billion, after raising $260 million in its latest private funding round announced on Thursday. To date, the company has secured a total of $412 million from investors to build AI infrastructure geared to help governments and critical national infrastructure sites — like oil, water, and energy facilities — secure and protect their most sensitive data from sophisticated cyber attacks by bad actors, including Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China. Dream last raised capital in a secondary offering at a valuation of $1.3 billion in August last year, following a $100 million investment last February at $1.1 billion. “We started three and a half years ago with the vision that the next cyber warfare is going to be AI versus AI and not human versus human anymore,” Dream Security CEO Shalev Hulio told The Times of Israel. “A year ago, we realized that the bad guys of the world — the Chinese, the Russians, North Koreans, the Iranians — are abusing AI to find the weakest link in every country or in every critical asset in order to penetrate it.” “We believe that the next supernations are going to be countries that know how to secure their national data and leverage cyber, AI and quantum [computing],” Hulio said. Dream Security was founded in January 2023 by Hulio, months after he stepped down as CEO of embattled cyber espionage firm NSO Group, which he co-founded; former chancellor of Austria Sebastian Kurz; and Gil Dolev, founder and former CEO of Wayout Group, an intelligence-gathering company focused on IoT (Internet of Things) devices. Based in Tel Aviv and with offices in Vienna and Abu Dhabi, the startup said it has built an AI-native national cyber defense platform to defend against nation-state cyber threats; an autonomous AI security researcher that discovers vulnerabilities and helps governments identify weaknesses before attackers do; and a sovereign AI platform to help governments process and analyze fragmented national data using internally developed AI models. The new investment was co-led by Miami-based growth equity firm Bicycle Capital and Group 11, founded by Israeli-American venture capitalist Dovi Frances. Other participants in the funding round included US private equity firm Bain Capital Ventures; Singapore-based venture capital firm Antler; and New York-based private equity investment firm Tru Arrow Partners, alongside global investors. Hulio said that the capital injection will be used for future acquisitions, talent recruitment, and footprint expansion to the US and further into Europe. Dream said sales have more than doubled over the past two years to $300 million, amid growing demand for its software platforms by Western-allied governments and national cybersecurity organizations across Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. The cyber unicorn employs 350 workers, of whom 300 are based in Israel. “There is a new geopolitical landscape in a world that has become more insecure and in which there is a lack of trust towards big players like the US or China,” said Kurz. “Hybrid warfare has become more and more of a reality, and while there are countries like Israel that are used to real wars, there are plenty of countries in the world that are not, but they are affected by hybrid warfare, like cyberattacks, every day.” “Nations that want to control their future need the ability to operate advanced AI under their own authority, on infrastructure they govern, and in alignment with their own interests,” said Kurz. Hulio said the latest action by the US government invoking an order to cut access to powerful Mythos AI models for foreign nationals over national security concerns is a sign of the times, showing governments need a sovereign national language model to avoid dependence on companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI. Dream has been developing sovereign natural language models designed for government use for areas such as cybersecurity, intelligence, healthcare, and finance. To power these models without relying on public cloud software, the firm established its own secure, sovereign data center near Modiin earlier this year to train proprietary language models and domain‑specific AI systems. “Governments have huge amounts of data and they want to use AI but they can’t take their entire data and upload it to ChatGPT or upload it to Claude or Gemini because it’s sensitive information,” said Hulio. “Governments can’t rely on foreign nations, or foreign companies to deal with their data, or depend on technology they don’t control.” “They need to own their data, own their AI, and we provide them with AI language models that are built in Israel from scratch,” he added. Hulio emphasized that the firm does not have access to government information on which the models are trained at their data center. “Nobody has access to it, nobody can use it besides the government, and the most important thing, nobody can shut it down,” he said. Asked about the road ahead, Hulio said Dream is pivoting toward developing a software platform to allow governments to securely combine and deploy cyber, AI, and quantum technologies. The Times of Israel Community.
US-Iran MOU Eases Energy Prices But Faces Sharp Pushback From Israel And GOP Hawks Summary: The US and Iran signed a preliminary cease-fire agreement at the G7 summit in France. Energy prices fell as some Saudi supertankers resumed crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The deal includes a $300 billion private reconstruction fund and temporary Iranian oil export waivers. Iranian officials declared themselves the clear winner. The agreement has opened significant new divisions within the Republican Party. Israel described the deal as a major strategic setback. US Vice President Vance will meet Iranian officials in Switzerland on Friday. Energy prices continued to fall on Thursday after the United States and Iran signed a preliminary cease-fire agreement, raising hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen to normal tanker traffic. The deal has been welcomed by markets but has drawn sharp criticism from Israel and quiet frustration from Gulf states, while also exposing tensions within the U.S. political system and NATO. Vadim Ghirda/Associated Press Energy Markets and Hormuz Reopening Brent crude fell to around $78.48 a barrel, down from levels near $95 seen late last week. In the United States, average gasoline prices dropped below $4 a gallon for the first time in months. Some commercial traffic has already resumed: three Saudi supertankers carrying roughly 6 million barrels of oil crossed from the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Oman - the first significant volumes of Saudi crude to transit the strait since the war began. "Oil down," Trump said following the signing, adding that allowing the war to continue "could have caused an international depression." According to the text of the agreement, Iran will facilitate commercial ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz at no charge for the first 60 days. Full traffic is to resume within 30 days once technical and military obstacles are addressed and mines are cleared. Iran will hold talks with Oman on the future administration and maritime services of the waterway in line with international law. The United States and Gulf states have opposed any Iranian toll on what they regard as international waters. Key Elements of the Preliminary Deal The memorandum of understanding, signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, launches at least 60 days of negotiations that could begin as early as Friday. It includes temporary waivers for Iranian oil exports, a commitment to halt hostilities linked to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon, and a $300 billion private investment vehicle - the Reconstruction and Development Fund - designed to channel capital into Iran’s energy, logistics, manufacturing, and transport sectors. Maritime traffic routes through the Strait of Hormuz from Sunday to Thursday.NBC News More than half of the $300 billion has reportedly already been pledged by companies based in the United States, Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America, and Africa. The fund contains no government grants or U.S. taxpayer money and will only become operational after a final, comprehensive agreement is reached. It is separate from parallel talks on sanctions relief and unfrozen Iranian assets. Iran had originally sought $400 billion in war-damage compensation; the private fund mechanism emerged as the compromise. A formal signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Geneva is now in doubt after Iran’s foreign ministry indicated the remote signing may have made it unnecessary, though negotiating teams are still expected to meet there. Iran Presents a United Front Iranian officials have moved swiftly to project a unified public stance following the signing of the preliminary cease-fire agreement. After weeks of reported internal political friction - during which some hardliners reportedly sought to derail the deal - senior figures are now emphasizing national victory and the need for domestic cohesion. Seyed Abbas Mousavi, a senior government official, stated that only a “small number” of critics remain inside Iran and described the country as the clear winner of both the war and the subsequent negotiations. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei went further, comparing the work of Iranian diplomats to that of soldiers operating “behind launchers and in trenches,” and urged the public to extend the same level of support to the negotiating team as it had to the military during the conflict. This coordinated messaging marks a notable shift from the divisions that surfaced during the war and stands in contrast to the public criticism that has emerged from some Republican lawmakers in Washington since the deal was signed GOP Rift Trump’s preliminary agreement with Iran has opened new fissures within the Republican Party. While some lawmakers praised the president for ending the fighting, others - including longtime allies and prominent conservatives - expressed sharp criticism, skepticism, and alarm over what they see as insufficient concessions from Tehran. Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana called the war “the worst foreign policy blunder in decades,” arguing that Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed and that the regime had successfully used the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to extract concessions. “Reagan is rolling over in his grave,” he wrote on social media. Senator Ted Cruz questioned whether the deal amounted to “giving $300 billion to the Iranian ayatollah,” while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said it was “a huge mistake to pay to rebuild the threat we just destroyed.” "History teaches us giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea," Cruz continued. Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene described the war as “totally unnecessary” and sarcastically remarked, “This, apparently, is what winning looks like.” The New York Post ran a critical front-page headline on Wednesday, accusing Trump of hitting Iran with a “LOVEBOMB” of cash and sanctions relief. Conservative pro-Israel commentator Mark Levin also said he found “much to be concerned about” in the agreement. The backlash highlights a difficult balancing act for Mr. Trump. At the start of the conflict, he faced pushback from “America First” isolationists who opposed entering a new war. Now, as he tries to end it, he is drawing fire from more traditional national security conservatives who believe the deal fails to deliver lasting limits on Iran’s nuclear program or regional influence. Not all Republicans were critical. Senator Tim Scott called the agreement a “major victory for American security and global stability,” while Senator Lindsey Graham expressed cautious optimism, saying he saw “little downside to trying” to reach a verifiable nuclear deal during the coming 60-day period. Trump responded to his critics on Wednesday, dismissing them as “stupid and bad people” and insisting he had the support of the international community. Washington and NATO Tensions Flare The deal has faced pushback inside the United States, including from some Republican lawmakers concerned about the scope of sanctions relief and the reconstruction fund. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered a pointed rebuke of NATO allies in Brussels, calling their refusal to facilitate U.S. strikes on Iran “shameful” and announcing a six-month review of American troop presence in Europe. He warned that U.S. support for the alliance would not be “a one-way street” and signaled possible cuts to Washington’s NATO contributions if allies do not increase defense spending. Israel Views the Deal as a Strategic Setback Israeli analysts described the agreement as failing to achieve any of Israel’s primary war aims and potentially leaving the country worse off. The deal does not limit Iran’s ballistic-missile arsenal or its backing of proxy forces such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. The nuclear file is deferred to future talks. It also seeks to constrain Israeli operations in Lebanon and calls for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon - positions Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected, stating that Israel is not a party to the agreement and is not bound by its terms. Commentators in Israel have characterized the outcome as a significant diplomatic reversal, noting that Iran appears emboldened, retains its missile capabilities, and stands to gain substantial financial resources that could flow to its military programs and regional allies. U.S. forces are also required to pull back from Iran’s immediate vicinity within 30 days under the framework. 🚨HOWARD LUTNICK REACTS TO TRUMP’S REMARKS Howard Lutnick appeared to shake his head in disappointment as Trump said Israel had little to complain about. pic.twitter.com/UDCfCEL44b — Parody Jeff (@Parodyjeffx) June 18, 2026 Meanwhile... Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir: We cannot stop destroying houses in southern Lebanon. We cannot stop, period. We cannot allow the population of southern Lebanon to return. ... We must continue to control the territory even if Trump disagrees. We are an… pic.twitter.com/vhHo7K1Ttv — Clash Report (@clashreport) June 17, 2026 Gulf States Express Disappointment Governments across the Persian Gulf - Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar - expressed disappointment that the agreement contains no curbs on Iran’s missile and drone programs. Analysts noted that Gulf states had hoped for stronger limits after suffering Iranian missile and drone attacks on airports, energy facilities, and other sites during the conflict. Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, said excluding Iran’s missiles and drones from the agreement showed that the United States “doesn’t have our best interests in mind.” Mr. al-Saif said he has no doubt that Iran was already rebuilding its missile and drone capacities and that it would use the financial windfall it gets from the deal to acquire more of the weaponry. The agreement, which U.S. and Iranian officials have called a memorandum of understanding, says the Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives. -NYT President Trump’s recent public remarks that Iran should be permitted some ballistic missiles because neighboring countries possess them drew particular notice, contrasting with earlier U.S. statements that the objective included denying Iran the ability to threaten the region with such weapons. Regional experts assess that Gulf governments may now accelerate investment in air-defense systems and seek technical cooperation with countries such as Ukraine and South Korea. While some voices question long-term reliance on the United States as a security guarantor, analysts emphasize that any meaningful strategic reorientation would take a decade or more to develop. What Happens Next U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are scheduled to meet in Switzerland on Friday to mark the agreement and launch the next round of negotiations. The 60-day period extends the existing cease-fire and will focus on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, and regional security arrangements. Whether the preliminary deal can be turned into a lasting settlement remains an open question amid the competing pressures from Israel, Gulf states, and domestic politics in Washington. RELATED: Futures Rise, Oil Drops As Market Prices In Iran Deal For Yet Another Day Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:25
When President Donald Trump ordered the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, like many people I assumed a brief air campaign to further degrade Iran's nuclear weapons program. The instigator was Iran's own negotiators, who boasted to Trump advisor Steve Witkoff that they had produced enough nuclear material for nearly a dozen weapons. All Tehran needed to do was make the final uranium enrichment step from 60% to 90%, then assemble the warheads. Neither Trump nor Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu — whose nation former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called a "two-bomb country" — had a choice in the matter. It was either war then or nuclear blackmail later. Or worse. We went to war. I cheered it on. Milblogger and retired Navy officer CDR Salamander put it better than I did at the time, writing that "I support the strikes on Iran because it firmly fits into a view I have held on the use of national military power for decades." Sal was writing in support of the age-old Great Power custom of punitive expeditions — brief and often impressively violent campaigns to bloody a smaller enemy without all that “Pottery Barn Rule” nonsense that Colin Powell saddled our strategic thinking with a quarter century ago. "Nation building OPLANS again? No. Not any more. Breaking their things and killing their worst leadership that endangered the USA and her allies? I’m in." Me too. Now the Memorandum of Understanding is public, and I must ask: How in the hell did we get to this from where we started on Feb. 28? - Ceasefire: Immediate/permanent end to military ops (incl. Lebanon); no future attacks/threats; respect sovereignty/Lebanon integrity. - Non-interference: Respect sovereignty/territorial integrity; no internal meddling. - Timeline: Negotiate final deal in max 60 days (extendable). - U.S. Actions: Lift naval blockade (start immediately, full in 30 days); withdraw forces post-deal; $300B+ reconstruction plan; end all sanctions (UN/US) per schedule; oil export waivers; release frozen funds/assets. - Iran Actions: Safe commercial shipping (Hormuz/Gulf, 60 days free); no nuclear weapons; maintain nuclear status quo; down-blend stockpile under IAEA. - Interim: Status quo maintained; monitoring mechanism; final deal via binding UNSC resolution. There's so much to pick apart here, but there are really only three things that matter: "Status quo," "End all sanctions," and "$300 billion." As for the efficacy of a denuclearization plan involving the UN... I just throw my hands up in the air. I spent weeks coming up with or sharing other people's attempts to explain what Trump was thinking, from the "rug-merchant" delay strategy to the "there's no one left there with the authority to negotiate" conundrum. But reading these bullet points, you have to wonder if they weren't having the exact same discussion inside the White House, right up until the very end. Here's a big tell about what the MOU is worth. The two strongest foreign policy hands on Team Trump — Secretary of State Marco Rubio and War Secretary Pete Hegseth — seem to be doing their best to maintain radio silence while JD Vance does the P.R. blitz. Axios reported on Monday that "[CIA Director John] Ratcliffe isn't the only skeptic in Trump's top team. In internal discussions, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth both expressed concerns and raised questions about the memorandum of understanding." "As Vance emerges as the spokesman for the deal, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has raised eyebrows across the political world with his near-total absence. Rubio, who has taken on multiple roles in the administration," Mediaite reported Thursday, and "was central to the Iran negotiations up until the last week or so, in which Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff stepped in to rush to finalize an end to hostilities." I've said here before that Witkoff is one of the very few weak parts of Trump 47, and if those are his fingerprints all over this MOU, then I'll say it again. Netanyahu is also nowhere to be seen, following months of standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the administration. The biggest mistake was a ceasefire that effectively locked in Tehran's control of Hormuz. The clock started ticking on the Islamic Republic the moment the bombs started falling almost four months ago. The clock started ticking on the global economy the moment Tehran more or less closed the Strait. As Trump himself put it in France on Thursday, "I didn't want to see economic catastrophe. If you kept this [war] going, that could have happened." He added, "It could have caused an international depression." Once we were at war, the proper solution was to force Hormuz back open. We even learned last week that Trump ordered elements of the 82nd Airborne Division to Israel for just such an eventuality. But either our armed forces lacked the ability to force open the Strait, or Trump lacked the will to order the Pentagon to do so. Neither option seems particularly plausible, but the third possibility — that the cost would have been too high — makes little sense once we committed to a larger and longer campaign. A swift punitive operation would have gotten us most of what we really needed: another serious dent in Iran's nuclear ambitions. But Epic Fury was just ambitious enough to force Tehran to put all its chips on the table by closing Hormuz and daring us to call. Instead, we didn't arm the Iranian opposition. We didn't go after the infrastructure that kept the regime on life support. We didn't force open the Strait of Hormuz. That said, the comparisons you'll see to Barack Obama's Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are, at best, specious. Iran's economy, leadership, military, and nuclear program are all shadows of their former selves, thanks to Epic Fury. Then again, with sanctions lifted and a $300 billion "reconstruction" fund, Hegseth may prove right sooner rather than later when he warned yesterday that "If Iran doesn’t comply, then we’re more than able to reimpose an ironclad blockade." Trump himself said that we could resume the operation "if they don't behave." "If it drags on for weeks of diminishing returns, my opinion will change," CDR Sal wrote at the start of the Epic Fury, but the diminishing returns only kicked in once Trump announced a ceasefire, leaving Iran with a stranglehold on the world's energy supplies. What good is the resumption of the bombing or even "an ironclad blockade," if we allow Iran to mine and drone Hormuz again? It's just an MOU, not a final peace deal, so things still could improve. But we have to look at the agreement as it stands, and as my Hot Air colleague David Strom predicted, "There will be no final deal. Iran got what it wanted already." We expended too much to get nothing better than this. The MOU is hardly the total surrender, humiliation, or whatever they're calling it on the TDS sites. But it's embarrassingly short of what we were promised — and what our fine men and women in uniform could have achieved. Recommended: How Deep Are the Newsoms in It? THIS Deep.
President Donald Trump is back in the U.S. after signing a landmark agreement with Iran while attending the G7 summit in Versailles, where French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a dinner Wednesday. Trump signed the agreement at that dinner, and a copy was sent to Iran, where Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also signed. The deal immediately triggers several significant changes. The U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports is set to end, and the U.S. Treasury will issue sanctions waivers allowing Iran to sell its oil internationally — a major financial benefit for the country. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already increased in recent days, and officials hope that trend continues as global energy markets move toward stability. The agreement also establishes a memorandum of understanding for a $300 billion investment in reconstruction and economic development in Iran. Trump has said none of that money will come from the U.S. However, a wide range of critical issues still must be negotiated over the next 60 days, including: - A schedule for lifting sanctions - The release of frozen Iranian assets - The future of Iran's nuclear program, including what happens to highly enriched uranium Iran already possesses - Whether Iran's nuclear program can continue for civilian or energy purposes - Who will monitor compliance Senior White House administration officials have cautioned that a final deal is not guaranteed, and what happens if the two countries cannot reach an agreement remains an open question. RELATED STORY | Trump and Iran sign ceasefire agreement, including $300B for Iran's reconstruction The deal has drawn sharp criticism from members of Congress on both sides of the aisle. Democrats have argued the agreement gives Iran a significant advantage. Sen. Richard Blumenthal said it puts Iran in a better position than it was before the war started at the end of February. "This agreement must come to Congress. Anybody advocating for it is going to need flame-resistant body armor, because it will meet with bipartisan condemnation when it reaches Congress, as it must do, because it has all the appearances of a treaty," Blumenthal said. Republican critics have also voiced strong opposition. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas said Trump is receiving bad advice on Iran and called it a mistake to give Iran billions of dollars. Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana offered some of the harshest criticism. "This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades. It's going to leave Iran stronger. It's going to leave our allies weaker. And it may commit U.S. taxpayer dollars. Now Iran recognizes that they can use their leverage of the Strait of Hormuz to extract from the other countries of the world," Cassidy said. Not all Republicans oppose the deal. Sen. Lindsey Graham said he sees no downside to what the president is attempting to accomplish. RELATED STORY | President Trump says Strait of Hormuz will be 'fully opened' by Friday Trump addressed his critics directly in a post on Truth Social, saying, "These fools who think I haven't been tough enough on Iran, when the stock market just hit a record high and oil prices are tumbling down, either are jealous, bad people or stupid." Congressional opposition could carry legal weight if a final deal is reached. A federal law requires any agreement related to Iran's nuclear program to receive congressional approval. Preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was one of the reasons Trump cited for entering the conflict, making the nuclear question central to any final agreement.
President Donald Trump is back in the U.S. after signing a landmark agreement with Iran while attending the G7 summit in Versailles, where French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a dinner Wednesday. Trump signed the agreement at that dinner, and a copy was sent to Iran, where Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also signed. The deal immediately triggers several significant changes. The U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports is set to end, and the U.S. Treasury will issue sanctions waivers allowing Iran to sell its oil internationally — a major financial benefit for the country. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already increased in recent days, and officials hope that trend continues as global energy markets move toward stability. The agreement also establishes a memorandum of understanding for a $300 billion investment in reconstruction and economic development in Iran. Trump has said none of that money will come from the U.S. However, a wide range of critical issues still must be negotiated over the next 60 days, including: - A schedule for lifting sanctions - The release of frozen Iranian assets - The future of Iran's nuclear program, including what happens to highly enriched uranium Iran already possesses - Whether Iran's nuclear program can continue for civilian or energy purposes - Who will monitor compliance Senior White House administration officials have cautioned that a final deal is not guaranteed, and what happens if the two countries cannot reach an agreement remains an open question. RELATED STORY | Trump and Iran sign ceasefire agreement, including $300B for Iran's reconstruction The deal has drawn sharp criticism from members of Congress on both sides of the aisle. Democrats have argued the agreement gives Iran a significant advantage. Sen. Richard Blumenthal said it puts Iran in a better position than it was before the war started at the end of February. "This agreement must come to Congress. Anybody advocating for it is going to need flame-resistant body armor, because it will meet with bipartisan condemnation when it reaches Congress, as it must do, because it has all the appearances of a treaty," Blumenthal said. Republican critics have also voiced strong opposition. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas said Trump is receiving bad advice on Iran and called it a mistake to give Iran billions of dollars. Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana offered some of the harshest criticism. "This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades. It's going to leave Iran stronger. It's going to leave our allies weaker. And it may commit U.S. taxpayer dollars. Now Iran recognizes that they can use their leverage of the Strait of Hormuz to extract from the other countries of the world," Cassidy said. Not all Republicans oppose the deal. Sen. Lindsey Graham said he sees no downside to what the president is attempting to accomplish. RELATED STORY | President Trump says Strait of Hormuz will be 'fully opened' by Friday Trump addressed his critics directly in a post on Truth Social, saying, "These fools who think I haven't been tough enough on Iran, when the stock market just hit a record high and oil prices are tumbling down, either are jealous, bad people or stupid." Congressional opposition could carry legal weight if a final deal is reached. A federal law requires any agreement related to Iran's nuclear program to receive congressional approval. Preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was one of the reasons Trump cited for entering the conflict, making the nuclear question central to any final agreement.
President Donald Trump is back in the U.S. after signing a landmark agreement with Iran while attending the G7 summit in Versailles, where French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a dinner Wednesday. Trump signed the agreement at that dinner, and a copy was sent to Iran, where Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also signed. The deal immediately triggers several significant changes. The U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports is set to end, and the U.S. Treasury will issue sanctions waivers allowing Iran to sell its oil internationally — a major financial benefit for the country. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already increased in recent days, and officials hope that trend continues as global energy markets move toward stability. The agreement also establishes a memorandum of understanding for a $300 billion investment in reconstruction and economic development in Iran. Trump has said none of that money will come from the U.S. However, a wide range of critical issues still must be negotiated over the next 60 days, including: - A schedule for lifting sanctions - The release of frozen Iranian assets - The future of Iran's nuclear program, including what happens to highly enriched uranium Iran already possesses - Whether Iran's nuclear program can continue for civilian or energy purposes - Who will monitor compliance Senior White House administration officials have cautioned that a final deal is not guaranteed, and what happens if the two countries cannot reach an agreement remains an open question. RELATED STORY | Trump and Iran sign ceasefire agreement, including $300B for Iran's reconstruction The deal has drawn sharp criticism from members of Congress on both sides of the aisle. Democrats have argued the agreement gives Iran a significant advantage. Sen. Richard Blumenthal said it puts Iran in a better position than it was before the war started at the end of February. "This agreement must come to Congress. Anybody advocating for it is going to need flame-resistant body armor, because it will meet with bipartisan condemnation when it reaches Congress, as it must do, because it has all the appearances of a treaty," Blumenthal said. Republican critics have also voiced strong opposition. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas said Trump is receiving bad advice on Iran and called it a mistake to give Iran billions of dollars. Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana offered some of the harshest criticism. "This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades. It's going to leave Iran stronger. It's going to leave our allies weaker. And it may commit U.S. taxpayer dollars. Now Iran recognizes that they can use their leverage of the Strait of Hormuz to extract from the other countries of the world," Cassidy said. Not all Republicans oppose the deal. Sen. Lindsey Graham said he sees no downside to what the president is attempting to accomplish. RELATED STORY | President Trump says Strait of Hormuz will be 'fully opened' by Friday Trump addressed his critics directly in a post on Truth Social, saying, "These fools who think I haven't been tough enough on Iran, when the stock market just hit a record high and oil prices are tumbling down, either are jealous, bad people or stupid." Congressional opposition could carry legal weight if a final deal is reached. A federal law requires any agreement related to Iran's nuclear program to receive congressional approval. Preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was one of the reasons Trump cited for entering the conflict, making the nuclear question central to any final agreement.
Futures Rise, Oil Drops As Market Prices In Iran Deal For Yet Another Day Futures rebounded from the post-FOMC selloff, and oil prices fell as Trump signed the Iran MOU two days early to end the war in the Middle East (in the symbolic Palace of Versailles of all place) and some energy shipments began to transit the Strait of Hormuz. As usual, tech led the parade higher. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.6%, but off overnight session highs, partly unwinding a more than 1% decline after Kevin Warsh signaled the Fed may have to raise interest rates this year to contain inflation; Nasdaq gained 1.3%; pre-market all Mag 7 are higher led by AMZN (+1.2%), META (+1.1%) and NVDA (+1.1%), reversing some of yesterday’s losses. Intel shares jumped more than 8% in premarket trading after Trump said the firm struck a chipmaking deal with Apple (a rehash of previous news but to this Pavolvian market, everything seems to be brand new). Overnight, the biggest headline was that the US/Iran MOU was officially in effect (final deal within 60 days, waiver for Iran to export oil, a $300bn reconstruction fund, terminating all types of sanction, per Axios). Bond yields are lower led by the long-end of the curve as 2y is still anchored by Fed commentary yesterday; 2y and 10y are -1bp and -4bp lower, respectively, the 10Y trading at 4.46%. The USD continues to climb with the DXY adding 53bp this morning. Brent slid 1.4% to around $78.50 a barrel and touched its lowest level since the start of the war while WTI fell -2.6% to $74.78; precious metals are largely flat this morning. US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims, June Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), May Leading Index (10am) and April TIC flows (4pm) In premarket trading Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +1%, Meta +0.5%, Tesla +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Microsoft -0.2%, Alphabet -0.5%). Apple Inc. (AAPL) is up 0.6% after CEO Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal that the iPhone maker plans to raise prices on its products to offset the increasing costs of memory and storage chips. SpaceX (SPCX) falls 1.7%, set to extend the previous session’s drop, as it wraps up its first week as a public company following a record-breaking listing. Accenture (ACN) tumbles 11% after the IT services company gave a revenue forecast for the fourth quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Albemarle Corp. (ALB) is up 1.8% after Citi raised its recommendation to buy from neutral on expected higher lithium prices. Enphase Energy (ENPH) rises 4.1% after Barclays raised the recommendation on the company to equal-weight from underweight, citing its push into selling solid-state transformers to data centers. Hive (HIVE) is up 15% after its subsidiary BUZZ High Performance Computing announced a partnership with Bell Canada, Cohere and Hypertec to build AI infrastructure in Canada. Iren Ltd. (IREN) gains 3.3% as Jefferies initiated coverage of the Bitcoin miner and data center operator with a recommendation of buy on artificial intelligence data center demand. Pfizer (PFE) is down 1.6% after the drugmaker said Chief Financial Officer Dave Denton will step down and leave the company on Aug. 15 for a professional opportunity in consumer goods outside the pharmaceutical industry. Rumble (RUM) jumps 15% after the online video network platform said it plans to operate two core business units: video platform Rumble and cloud and AI-infrastructure business Quake AI, formerly Northern Data. Four big June events are now in the rear view mirror — the first FOMC of the Warsh era, an Iran deal, the SpaceX’s IPO, and the first CPI print over 4% in 3 years. And yet, nothing appears able to dent the ongoing market meltup which is driven entirely by massive debt-funded capex spending into a handful of chip stocks. Ahead of the last trading day of the week for US markets, the peace deal is reducing the risk of further energy-supply disruptions. Stocks have largely shrugged off the turmoil and continued to notch record highs on the back of relentless enthusiasm for AI. Equity markets have come through the tests posed by the debut of SpaceX, Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair and the US-Iran peace deal fairly unscathed, said Raphael Thuin, head of capital market strategies at Tikehau. “With the MOU now signed, there’s reason to believe that we may be close to or past peak inflation,” Thuin said. “The market will be able to concentrate on earnings again, like for Micron next week.” Bond investors, however, face the prospect of lingering risks that may keep the higher-for-longer rates narrative intact. Even though US gasoline prices have dipped below $4 a gallon for the first time since March, energy costs have only been one factor in keeping inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s target. US gasoline prices dipped below $4 a gallon for the first time since March, providing relief to consumers after global supply disruption sent fuel costs soaring. In contrast, inflation pressures are likely to hit people in the pocket if they want to buy a new iPhone later this year, with Apple’s Tim Cook telling the Wall Street Journal that the company plans to raise prices to offset surging memory and storage chip costs Despite lower oil prices, front-end Treasury yields remained at their highest level since February 2025, with traders cementing bets for a September US rate hike. In the UK, the yield on two-year gilts jumped six basis points to 4.2%, while the Bank of England kept guidance that it “stands ready to act” on inflation and left its key rate unchanged. The dollar extended gains. A quick look back at the Fed decision: Wednesday’s Fed decision marked the fourth consecutive meeting in which policymakers left rates unchanged. Officials described economic growth as “solid” and highlighted strong productivity gains and capital investment, while making clear that inflation has become a greater concern than labor-market weakness. Warsh has been critical of over-communication and poor forecasting by the Fed, and the new regime is moving away from explicit forward guidance - investors can no longer rely on central bank signals and will have to price in policy uncertainty. The S&P 500 has historically faced challenges following changes in leadership at the Fed. “Half the committee is expecting rate hikes this year, which is a real shot across the bow at the market,” said Bob Michele, chief investment officer and global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. “I think they’re getting ready for rate hikes.” As for SpaceX, the company is seemingly sucking retail investors back into equities, flows into US equity ETFs have risen rapidly, notching the second highest-ever monthly flow, Bloomberg notes. Based on the price target of an initiation of coverage by Arete analyst Andrew Beale, SpaceX gets an implied $5.3 trillion valuation by end of 2027. European stocks are missing out on the rally, with the Stoxx 600 down by 0.4%, dragged lower by the mining and autos sectors. Here are the biggest movers Thursday: Edenred shares soar as much 18%, hitting their highest level since early November, after the payment solutions firm confirmed it has been approached by investment funds in the wake of a report of takeover interest from BC Partners Generali shares rose as much as 3.3%, the most in 14 months, after newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore reported that UniCredit has informally proposed exchanging a 10% stake held by the Del Vecchio family holding Delfin in the insurer with its own shares Oxford Instruments rises as much as 4.4% as Peel Hunt upgrades to buy from add and installs a new Street-high price target, based on durability of growth and scope for further operating leverage Man Group shares rise as much as 3.4% to the highest since 2011 as BNP Paribas analysts upgrade their rating on the hedge fund manager to outperform from neutral and raise their target price Informa shares rise as much as 3% as Morgan Stanley said the company has navigated the first five months of its financial year well, with strong results from its Live B2B Events and Academic Markets units SSP advances as much as 5.1%, to the highest in eight weeks, after Davy initiates on the airport-focused food and beverage outlet operator with an outperform recommendation and 225p price target Skistar climbs as much as 11%, the most since March 2025, after reporting third-quarter results which DNB Carnegie says show good cost mitigation and decent future pre-bookings Tesco shares fall as much as 3.7% to their lowest level in two weeks after the UK’s biggest supermarket reported earnings which missed analyst expectations for like-for-like sales Carrefour drops as much as 6.6% as JPMorgan places the French supermarket operator on a negative catalyst watch, saying first-half results on July 23 “might turn out to be a downgrade event” Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose as oil prices eased after President Donald Trump signed an interim peace deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8% to set an intraday record, boosted by gains in tech names including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. South Korea led advances in the region, with shares also rising in Taiwan and Japan. Crude prices continued to fall after Trump said a memorandum of understanding with Iran has taken effect, helping to ease inflation concerns for energy importing countries and offsetting hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. A gauge of tech shares in Asia rose to a new high.Elsewhere in Asia, central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines — two economies hit hard by the sharp increase in global oil prices following the Iran war — both hiked their policy rates on Thursday. Indonesian stocks held losses, while Philippine shares pared gains. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reverses an earlier decline, sending the euro below $1.15. The BOE, Switzerland, and Norway’s central banks all held rates. In rates, treasuries curve-flattening sparked by Wednesday’s hawkish Fed meeting extends as 2-year rises back toward highest levels since February 2025 — and within 25bp of the 10-year — while 30-year is more than 6bp lower on the day. Treasury 2-year is more than 2bps cheaper on the day while 10-year is nearly 3bp richer near 4.46% after touching 4.44% during London morning. US 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are 5bp and 6bp tighter respectively, after narrowing 8bp and 11bp to multi-month lows Wednesday. UK front-end underperforms, holding losses after Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% as it said the recent fall in oil prices was “encouraging.” UK 2-year, 6bp cheaper on the day, had muted reaction to Bank of England policy announcement decided by 7-2 vote. In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 2%, off session lows after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian released details on the text of the memorandum of understanding ending US attacks. Brent slid 1.4% to around $78.50 a barrel and touched its lowest level since the start of the war as three laden oil vessels controlled by Saudi Arabia’s state tanker giant switched on their signals in the Gulf of Oman after being stuck inside the Persian Gulf since the conflict began. US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims, June Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), May Leading Index (10am) and April TIC flows (4pm) Market Snapshot Top Overnight News An impending wave of oil that’s been trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz is set to be unleashed on Asia, suddenly swamping a region that had managed to make up for lost supply in recent weeks. BBG The average price of U.S. gasoline fell below $4 a gallon on Thursday for the first time in months, after Iran and the United States signed a preliminary agreement to cease hostilities for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to a fraction of a penny below $4, down from $4.03 the day before, according to the AAA motor club. NYT The MSCI China Index is on the cusp of a bear market, pressured by weakness in tech and consumer stocks. Alibaba and Tencent were the biggest drags on the day. BBG The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% as it said the recent fall in oil prices was “encouraging.” Two of the nine policymakers voted for an immediate quarter-point hike over concerns of persistent inflation: BBG The SNB left its key rate at zero as expected and said it retained its heightened readiness to sell the franc. Separately, the Swiss government trimmed its growth predictions for 2026 and next year, while slightly raising its inflation outlook. BBG Brussels has opened communication channels with the Kremlin in recent weeks to scope out the potential for talks to end the war in Ukraine, as European capitals debate whether to engage directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. FT Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected, but said it would likely be necessary to hike at one of the forthcoming meetings. Norges Bank The U.K.’s unemployment rate inched down in the three months through April while wage growth remained flat, with continued weakness in the labor market reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold. WSJ Microsoft Corp. has built a big business selling AI models to Chinese companies despite the growing rivalry between the US and China over artificial intelligence. ByteDance Ltd. has generally been Microsoft’s biggest AI customer in recent years, largely using OpenAI models, and is on track to spend more than $1 billion a year on Microsoft AI and cloud services. BBG U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Thursday that Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and manufacture its chips in the United States. RTRS Iran Headlines Technical talks between the US and Iran will be held in Zurich on Friday, Al Hadath reported citing sources. Talks will include the legal aspects related to lifting Iranian sanctions, the issue of frozen funds and the Iranian nuclear file. Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia will also attend the talks. An unannounced negotiation session will discuss issues related to Lebanon and Hezbollah. The fifth round of US-Iran negotiations will discuss Israel's withdrawal along with a timetable for the experimental zone, Al Hadath reported citing a Lebanese source. The source added that the US-Iranian agreement will intensify pressure on Israel to gradually withdraw and that there will be no retreat from restricting weapons to the state and deploying the army in the south. Lebanon is proceeding with direct negotiations with Israel. Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed that the US and Iran will meet on Friday for initial talks on MoU execution. The Swiss government, following the Iranian commentary, said the plan as it stands is still for the US, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar to meet on Friday in Switzerland to commence talks. US War Secretary Hegseth said they are to review where the right place for basing is, when the Strait of Hormuz opens and are prepared to resume strikes and blockade if Iran does not comply with MoU. US official said the Iran MoU was signed digitally on Sunday by US VP Vance and Iranian Speaker Ghalibaf, which was witnessed by US President Trump, while the US official said Iran MoU was signed on Wednesday by US President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian. US official says that Iran is to arrange safe, no-charge passage through Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, according to CNBC. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the MoU between the US and Iran was decided to be signed digitally, while the plan for negotiating teams in Geneva remains in place, but there will be no signing ceremony in Switzerland. Baghaei stated that the 60-day period had started and that Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments, while he also commented that the US has begun lifting the blockade on Iranian ships and that no enriched nuclear material will be sent abroad, and the dilution of nuclear material remains an option. Furthermore, he said Iran will reciprocate if the US fails to honour commitments, and that Iran is to charge fees for Strait of Hormuz safety services, as well as stated that Iran and Oman are to manage the Strait of Hormuz security, and noted that Switzerland talks with the US are not yet certain. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments. The spokesman also said that the 60-day period starts today, according to the text. Iranian Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions, but this does not mean acting against international laws or maritime navigation, while he added that payment for services through the Strait of Hormuz has been established in the MoU and that USD 300bln has been allocated to be invested in Iran, part of which will be spent on reconstruction. Furthermore, he said Iran's action is contingent on US compliance, with Iran to pursue action-for-action policy, as well as separately commented that Tehran can target ships entering Hormuz if needed, and that Tehran has sovereign rights to charge Hormuz tolls. Source on Telegram posted that several IRGC boats were engaged in unspecified activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and that a US ship broadcast a warning message in Persian to tell them to cease operations and return to port, or else the US Navy would attack them. An Israeli official said Israel has no intention of backing down on its positions and are holding stubborn negotiations with the US over its presence in southern Lebanon. Israeli military operations reportedly continue in Lebanon despite the MoU, while Israel opposes Lebanon ceasefire terms in the US-Iran agreement, according to Al Jazeera. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mixed as the region reflected on recent key events, including the hawkish FOMC and Fed chair Warsh's first presser, in which the Fed kept rates unchanged, removed forward guidance, emphasised price stability, and provided hawkish dot plots. This triggered selling in stocks, treasuries and gold, while it boosted the dollar and yields, with money markets now fully pricing in an October hike. Nonetheless, some of the moves have since been pared, to varying degrees, as oil prices gradually declined following the announcement that the US and Iran have signed the MoU for ending the war, which is now in effect, but with the planned talks on Friday in Switzerland, said to not yet be certain. ASX 200 was subdued with most sectors in the red and the declines were led by tech and miners. Nikkei 225 extended on record highs to surpass the 71,000 level as manufacturers benefited from lower oil prices and optimism of the reopening of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. KOSPI rallied and breached the 9,000 level for the first time amid strength in Samsung and SK Hynix. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower with underperformance in Hong Kong as the hawkish FOMC and increased prospects of a rate hike this year, pressured the local benchmark, given that any rate hike in the US would force the HKMA to move in lockstep with the Fed to defend the USD/HKD peg. Top Asian News Japan's chief cabinet secretary Kihara said the Japanese government is monitoring FX markets closely and will respond to FX moves as needed. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.5%) start Thursday's session on a mixed footing despite the US and Iranian presidents digitally signing the MoU. Germany's DAX 40 (+0.1%) is the clear outperformer, while the FTSE 100 (-0.8%) is the laggard as multiple companies trade ex-dividends. European sectors highlight a negative bias. Technology (+0.3%), Industrial Goods & Services (+0.6%) and Telecoms (+0.1%) are the only sectors in the green. To the bottom lies Optimised Personal Care (-1.8%), Basic Resources (-1.9%), and Autos (-1.3%). Top European News Germany's Ifo cut its German economic growth forecast for 2027 to 0.8% (prev. exp. 1.2%). Inflation expected at 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2027. Swiss Government cuts its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 1.0%) and 2027 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% (prev. 1.7%, long-term avg. 1.8%). FX G10s were initially mixed against a lacklustre USD. However, as the morning progressed, the Dollar found some strength and surpassed the highs made post-FOMC; today’s peak is at 100.63. USD/JPY aggressively sold off earlier in the session from 160.80 to 160.48 but has since pared entirely. GBP was initially flat, but now posts modest losses against the USD. The BoE announcement is due today, where the MPC is widely expected to keep rates on hold in a 7-2/8-1 vote split as recent data and energy moderation support the narrative that bank rate is restrictive. With markets assigning a 95% probability of no-change today, attention will be on the vote split. While consensus is for 7-2/8-1, hawkish dissent from Chief Economist Pill and potentially one or two more policymakers remains possible, and would likely spur a hawkish reaction. In addition to the BoE, GBP will also digest results of the Makerfield by-election which will likely see Labour candidate Burnham emerge as the winner, and challenge incumbent Starmer. Norges Bank was broadly as expected with a fleeting kneejerk lower in NOK, the unwinding of tightening bets by c. 15% of market participants. The 2026 core CPI view was maintained and the 2027 one was trimmed modestly, as expected, while forecasts and commentary still show that inflation is “too high” and the Governor outlined that new information shows “inflation pressures are slightly stronger than we had anticipated earlier”. As such, the Norges Bank points to tightening ahead, roughly in line with market expectations. EUR/NOK +0.3%. SNB kept rates unchanged in a mostly as-expected meeting. EUR/CHF is firmer today, potentially surrounding the fact that commentary around energy/raw materials suggests that the new forecasts do not account for the moderation in energy seen recently; over the medium term, sparking a return to concerns around inflation being too low in Switzerland. As such, EUR/CHF -0.2%. Fixed Income Global fixed benchmarks are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, with price action lacklustre since the European cash open. It appears that fixed benchmarks are taking a breather following this week’s hefty declines in yields, which comes amidst sustained pressure in the energy complex. On the geopolitical front, US-Iran have signed the MoU, which means the Strait of Hormuz is theoretically open for ships to pass through, whilst the US blockade will also be lifted. USTs (-2 ticks) trades within a 109-09+ to 109-20+ range, and well off the lows seen overnight, which stemmed from a hawkish Fed on Wednesday. A full recap can be found on the headline feed, but in brief, the unchanged policy was accompanied by hawkish dot plots and the removal of the easing bias. From a yield perspective, the US 2s10s curve is flatter post-Fed, and currently holding around 27.5bps, a level not seen since Liberation Day (2nd Apr 2025). This has unsurprisingly been led by the short-end, following the hawkish Fed. However, should inflation begin to ease later this year, there is some chance that the spread begins to widen once again, with short-end yields reflecting a less hawkish Fed. The long end may also be affected, with focus on Chair Warsh announcing a dedicated task force to review the Bank’s balance sheet. Any hints of an acceleration of the roll-off would undoubtedly lead to a considerably steeper curve. Bunds (-9 ticks) and Gilts (U/C) trade in line with peers. Focusing on UK paper, traders will await the BoE this afternoon and then the start of the Makerfield by-election. In brief, the BoE is expected to keep rates on hold at 3.75%, with a mixed vote split. Some see in a range of 8-1 to 6-3. Thereafter, attention shifts to domestic politics, whereby a Burnham victory could see him launch a leadership challenge; for reference, he is viewed as the worst candidate for Gilts. There is a full preview in the Research Suite for those interested. France sells EUR 13.999bln vs exp. EUR 12-14bln 2.40% 2029, 3.25% 2032, 2.00% 2032 and 3.00% 2034 OAT. Spain sells EUR 5.83bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 3.00% 2033, 3.40% 2036 and 4.90% 2040 Bono. Commodities Crude futures are softer, with WTI Aug'26 slipping below the USD 75/bbl mark (USD 73.42-75.75/bbl range) while Brent Aug'26 oscillates around a USD 78/bbl handle (USD 77.10-79.06/bbl band). US and Iranian leaders signed the MoU digitally, which has weighed on the energy complex. The deal allows for the immediate resumption of Iranian oil exports and possible access to a USD 300bln development programme, backed by sanctions waivers and unfreezing overseas funds. In exchange, Iran will never produce nuclear weapons. The MoU also confirmed earlier reporting that Iran's nuclear file will be deferred to talks for 60 days. More recently, reporting by Al Hadath noted technical talks between the US and Iran will begin in Zurich on Friday, in which the legal aspects related to lifting Iranian sanctions, the issue of frozen funds and the Iranian nuclear file will be discussed. Attention remains on whether Israel will back away from fighting Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. An Israeli official said that Israel has no intention of backing down on its positions and is holding stubborn negotiations with the US over its presence in southern Lebanon. However, energy benchmarks were unreactive following those comments. Spot gold has slightly pared back Wednesday's losses which were driven by a hawkish Fed meeting. After dipping to a trough of USD 4219/oz yesterday, the yellow metal ventured higher throughout the Asia-Pac session and reached USD 4330/oz at best this morning. 3M LME Copper gapped lower and fell to a trough of USD 13.67k/t post-FOMC. In brief, the Fed held rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, however, the SEP highlighted a hawkish bias. 3M LME Copper has since traded rangebound, holding in a USD 13.67k-13.78k/t band. Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industries CEO said 89% of damaged petrochemical units returned to production, and the process of redesigning and strengthening production capacity is underway, ISNA reported. Three Saudi Arabian-flagged supertankers laden with a combined 6mln barrels of crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, according to shipping data. China's State Planner said effective at midnight June 18th, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be cut by CNY 515/t and CNY 495/t, respectively. Central Banks The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75%, as expected, as it said the recent fall in oil prices was “encouraging,” Two of the nine policymakers voted for an immediate quarter-point hike over concerns of persistent inflation. The committee lowered its estimate of peak inflation to 3.25% in the fourth quarter of this year, below the 3.6% it had projected in April. The SNB held rates unchanged at 0.00%, as expected. The Bank stated that the readiness to intervene in FX is higher and that monetary policy is appropriate to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability. On inflation, the Bank stated that medium-term inflationary pressure, however, is virtually unchanged compared with the last monetary policy assessment. SNB Chairman Schlegel said that monetary policy continues to have an expansionary effect. Geopolitical uncertainty remains, risks of strong upward pressure on the CHF remains. "If necessary, we therefore have an increased willingness to intervene..." in FX. The Norges Bank held rates unchanged at 4.25%, as expected. The Bank stated that it will likely be necessary to raise the policy rate further at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings. Governor Bache stated in the release that inflation is too high and that new information indicates that inflation pressures are slightly stronger than we had anticipated earlier. The Bank's MPR was also revised higher, forecasting just above 4.5% at the end of 2026. Ukraine geopol Russia's Defence Ministry said 555 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russian areas overnight, according to IFX. Russia attacked Kyiv with missiles and explosions heard in the capital, while it was separately reported that several Moscow airports have halted flights and Moscow's mayor announced that drones hit an oil refinery in a massive attack, according to TASS. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: Jun 13 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k, prior 229k 8:30 am: Jun Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 10, prior -0.4 8:30 am: Jun 6 Continuing Claims, est. 1789k, prior 1795k 10:00 am: May Leading Index, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1% 4:00 pm: Apr Total Net TIC Flows, prior 150.7b 4:00 pm: Apr Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 81.3b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Kevin Warsh’s first appearance as Fed Chair yesterday proved to be a momentous one, with a hawkish dot plot and Warsh’s inflation-fighting rhetoric leaving a sense that rate hikes are firmly under consideration. This shift led investors to fully price in a Fed hike by October, with the repricing weighing on risk assets and sending the S&P 500 -1.21% lower. However, futures are erasing most of this decline overnight following news yesterday evening that US and Iranian leaders signed an MoU to end the war. Starting with the Fed, while the FOMC held rates steady for the fourth meeting in a row, the updated dot plot saw nine of eighteen participants pencil in at least one hike by year-end, and six expecting two hikes or more. A much-shortened post-meeting statement not only dropped the earlier dovish-leaning forward guidance but also included an unambiguous commitment to “deliver price stability”. Warsh then focused on inflation-fighting credibility in his press conference. At the outset he acknowledged the now 5-year-long upside miss on inflation, before repeatedly noting the importance of the Fed delivering on its “price stability” mandate. So, while the new Chair eschewed any policy guidance, including by not submitting his own forecast to the dot plot, he did not push back against the hawkish dot plot signal and did not lean into any potential dovish arguments. Separately, Warsh announced the establishment of task forces in five areas, including communications and the Fed balance sheet. In all, the meeting left an undeniably more hawkish Fed tone. While our US economists maintain their baseline view that the Fed is likely to keep rates steady, they note that a Fed that does not rely on forward guidance might prove to be nimbler, setting up the potential for earlier rate hikes than anticipated. That shifting Fed rhetoric led to a dramatic fed funds repricing, with chances of a September hike rising from 36% to 80% by yesterday’s close and 38bps of hikes being priced in by year-end (+17.2bps on the day). In turn, 2yr Treasury yields (+13.1bps) saw their largest increase in over a year to a 15-month high of 4.19%. However, the 10yr yield was up by a more moderate +4.9bps while 30yr yields actually ended the day -1.2bps lower. That marked the sharpest daily flattening in the Treasury curve since April 9 last year, when Trump paused the Liberation Day tariffs following a sell-off in Treasuries. The sharp Fed repricing weighed on risk assets, with the S&P 500 (-1.21%) and the NASDAQ (-1.34%) sliding, having been little changed pre-FOMC. The Mag-7 (-2.82%) led the decline, but the losses were broad as the S&P 500 saw the most daily decliners (429) so far this year. The aggregate decline would have been even worse were it not for the Philly semiconductor index (+1.38%) recovering after Wednesday’s losses. The rates repricing also weighed on assets such as gold (-1.71%) and Bitcoin (-2.15%). On the other hand, the dollar (+0.55%) gained against all G10 currencies. However, this sell off has partially reversed overnight following news shortly after the US close that the Presidents of the US and Iran had electronically signed an interim deal to end hostilities, with this MoU coming into effect. The signing had initially been expected on Friday, but Axios reported earlier yesterday that this may be brought forward. According to reports, the 14-point MoU foresees a rapid re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, with an extendable 60-day period to negotiate a final deal that would cover nuclear issues and broad sanctions relief. The deal also envisages a $300bn fund for the "reconstruction and economic development" of Iran, though Trump stressed yesterday that the US will not be investing in Iran and that Iran would benefit only if it “behaves”. Following the MoU signing, Brent crude is -1.85% lower at $78.08/bbl as I type, more than reversing a +0.75% rise yesterday. This has led to a positive backdrop for major Asian markets this morning. The Nikkei (+1.82%) and the KOSPI (+1.87%) are leading the gains and pushing to new highs, supported by strong advances in semiconductor stocks. Elsewhere, China’s CSI (+0.12%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.37%) are mixed, while the Hang Seng (-1.70%) is underperforming. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-0.51%) is trading a little lower. Outside Asia, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.70%) and Nasdaq (+1.09%) are recovering most of Wednesday’s losses, but those on the STOXX 50 (-0.60%) are catching down to the earlier decline on Wall Street. Meanwhile, 10yr Treasury yields are down -3.9bps to 4.45% as I type. In other corners of the market, the Japanese yen is largely unchanged, after falling -0.14% yesterday to a post-2024 low of 160.65 against the dollar. However, that decline was smaller than for other G10 currencies, with the restrained moves coming as the yen reached levels that triggered FX intervention back in late April. Earlier yesterday, European equities advanced for a second day amidst optimism over the US-Iran deal. The Stoxx 600 (+0.52%) and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.31%) reached fresh highs, while the DAX (+0.10%) and FTSE 100 (+0.14%) made smaller advances. European bonds were mixed, with 10yr yields on bunds (-0.2bps), OATs (+0.3bps), BTPs (-0.7bps) little changed, while front-end yields moved slightly higher, with those on 2yr bunds up +2.1bps. Investors priced 32bps of ECB hikes by year end (+0.7bps yesterday), with ECB’s Simkus saying he expects “at least one more” rate hike by the ECB and that it’s important to cap inflation expectations. Gilts were the notable outperformer in the rates space as investors looked forward to today’s Makerfield by-election, with the 10yr yield down -3.7bps to 4.7%. Greater Manchester's Mayor Andy Burnham is standing for the governing Labour Party and is widely expected to win, with results of the by-election expected in the early hours UK time tomorrow. This election could have important implications for markets as Burnham has said he'd stand in a leadership contest to replace incumbent UK Prime Minster Keir Starmer, with Polymarket now pricing a 77% likelihood of Burnham becoming PM by year-end. Burnham has said in the past that Britain shouldn't be "in hock" to the bond markets and suggested looser fiscal policies. However, Burnham has since committed to keeping the fiscal rules of the current government, leading investors to reduce the risk premium that had emerged in gilts and pound sterling. Otherwise in the UK, the other main event today will be the BoE decision. Investors widely except the central bank to keep rates unchanged, with attention more focused on the vote split (our economists expect 7-2), and any evolution in guidance. This has come against a backdrop of still-sticky inflation, although yesterday’s dovish inflation print for May should boost the MPC’s confidence to buy more time. The print saw headline (+2.8% y/y vs +3.0% y/y expected) and core CPI (+2.6% y/y vs +2.7% y/y) miss expectations, though services (+3.7% y/y vs +3.6% y/y) fell in line with forecasts. Reviewing yesterday’s other data, we saw a beat for US retail sales in May, with headline retail sales up +0.9% m/m (vs +0.6% m/m expected) and with retail control rising +0.7% m/m (vs +0.4% expected). With core goods CPI having eased in May, the beat for retail control was a real one rather than just due to higher prices. Finally, rounding off yesterday’s central bank news, Sweden’s Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected, but raised its policy rate forecast for year-end up 5bps to 1.82%. To the day ahead now, in addition to the BoE, the SNB and Norges Bank will also hold their policy decisions. A slate of second-tier data releases includes the US June Philadelphia Fed business outlook, May leading index, initial jobless claims, UK unemployment rate, Italy April current account balance and Eurozone April construction output. Finally, today will see the start of the European Council summit (through June 19). Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:28
WASHINGTON — Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that the U.S. Navy has allowed more than a dozen ships through to Iranian ports, lifting a blockade as part of an agreement to end the war. Vance made the announcement at a White House press briefing, where he said more oil is now flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. The Republican vice president said more than 12.5 million barrels went through the shipping channel Wednesday night. "So we're also honoring our end of the early part of the agreement on the military side," Vance said, citing it as an immediate benefit of the deal as he downplayed criticism that the agreement tilts in favor of Iran. Vance said he plans to travel to Switzerland for talks on the Iran deal but he doesn't know when that will happen. He had been expected to lead talks on implementing the agreement with Iran aimed at diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and restarting oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday, two oil tankers left Iran and crossed the U.S. military blockade without being stopped. A merchant shipping tracking website said the ships were carrying a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil. Meanwhile, Iranian state media said that shipping has "normalized" at Iran's southern ports but added that the Strait of Hormuz remains supervised and under the control of the Iranian military and transiting through the vital waterway still requires coordination. Major shipowners have begun moving vessels through the Strait of Hormuz since the agreement was signed, according to maritime data company Lloyd's List Intelligence — though they did not give data on how many ships have passed through the strait as of Thursday. In a media briefing, Richard Meade, editor in chief of Lloyd's List, said for the first time in 110 days, ships owned by major companies are transiting the strait after effectively being marooned there since February. Tankers controlled by major ship owners Grimaldi Group, Cosco, Knutsen and NYK have passed through the strait. And two Iran-flagged, National Iranian Tanker Company-owned, sanctioned crude oil tankers have entered the strait, according to Lloyd's List. Phillip Belcher, marine director of Intertanko, a trade group for global independent tanker owners, said the main central route of the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and has an estimated 80 mines that need to be cleared. But ships have been passing through the smaller Northern route, which goes through Iranian waters, and the Southern route, which goes through Omani waters. The agreement calls for a permanent end to hostilities and starts a 60-day negotiating clock to reach a final deal on the future of Iran's nuclear program, though Trump left the door open to resume attacks. It appears to offer Iran several benefits up front while extracting little in return. It states that Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which is believed to be buried under rubble, must at minimum be diluted under international supervision. It also states that Iran shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons — a commitment it has made previously. But beyond stating that the U.S. and Iran will negotiate over Iran's nuclear program, other commitments still need to be worked out. Much of the agreement would restore the status quo before the war, including ending hostilities, restarting talks between the U.S. and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial passage for the world's oil and natural gas whose closure created a historic energy crisis.
Hormuz Normalization Begins As Saudi Supertankers Exit And A Flood Of Persian Gulf Oil Heads For Asia Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to restart on Thursday after the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal, with several Saudi-controlled supertankers transiting the critical waterway and exiting the Persian Gulf. There is a massive backlog of crude and LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf, preparing to exit the Hormuz chokepoint bound for Asia. Bloomberg says 31 supertankers, carrying about 62 million barrels of crude, could soon exit. The actual number of crude and LNG tankers preparing to exit could be much higher, as some tankers may turn off their transponders. Once exited, many of those tankers are slated for ports in East Asia and will take roughly three weeks to arrive. One of the key developments overnight was that three Saudi-controlled supertankers, including Bahri-controlled Saudi VLCCs Shaden, Jaham, and Awtad, switched on their transponders and began exiting the Persian Gulf. Maritime traffic remains far below normal levels and could take many months to return to normal. "There are certain practical steps that we believe are necessary before the vessels that have been stranded in the Gulf for the last 110 days can resume transiting the Strait of Hormuz," Sheila Cameron, CEO, and Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association, told Bloomberg in a statement. Cameron continued, "The main requirement for recovery is stability and certainty for shipowners and insurers. The road to recovery in the Gulf will be a long and complicated one. It will take months for some sort of normality to return to international shipping with vessels in the wrong place and supply chains distorted." Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs' co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients, "We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre- war levels by the end of July." On Thursday morning, Brent crude futures fell below $78, while West Texas Intermediate was near $74. Traders are already pricing in the coming flood of seaborne crude. Dubai and Murban crude futures curves have flipped into contango, Oman crude is trading at a discount to Dubai, and some diesel cargoes are trading below benchmark levels after commanding lofty premiums. The first signs of normalization are already visible, following President Trump's acknowledgment on Wednesday at the G7 Summit that the interim peace deal with Iran to reopen Hormuz was signed as the U.S. was nearing the point of "running out of reserves in about four weeks." *Trump Says `We Run Out of Reserves in About Four Weeks' we know, but maybe not the smartest thing to admit https://t.co/N28eXJih5e — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026 Struyven noted that even if the expected "normalization" occurs by the end of next month, flows may recover to only 70% of pre-war levels ... Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg): US-Iran Peace Deal • President Trump signed an interim peace deal with Iran on Wednesday evening at the Palace of Versailles, following the G7 summit • The deal is now in effect and was signed electronically by both presidents, according to US and Iranian officials • The memorandum of understanding opens the way for 60 days of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and other issues • Iran will receive sanctions waivers allowing it to sell oil immediately and gain access to a $300 billion economic development program • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US can reimpose an ironclad blockade if Iran doesn't comply with the deal Strait of Hormuz Reopening • Three Saudi supertankers carrying about six million barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking the first Saudi-owned crude tankers to cross since the war began • A laden LNG carrier and an empty products tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz early Thursday, sailing along a route approved by Tehran for safe passages • Qatar brought an empty LNG tanker back into the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the war began on Thursday • Goldman Sachs estimates oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may recover to only about 70% of pre-war levels, with normalization potentially completed by the end of next month Economic Impact • US gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon on Thursday for the first time since March, down from a May peak above $4.50 Deal Criticism and Complications • Trump faced pushback from Republicans who object to the deal and the billions of dollars set to flow to Tehran • Trump brushed aside several red lines on Wednesday, suggesting Iran should have the right to enrich uranium, develop ballistic missiles and access frozen funds • Israel rejected a US request to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon, citing continued presence of Hezbollah, threatening to complicate broader peace efforts Iran Leadership Investigation • The US Justice Department is conducting a probe into how Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei built a global investment portfolio with exposure to Wall Street banks, examining allegations of money laundering and corruption Related Legal Developments • A federal judge allowed the Justice Department to drop a criminal case against Turkish state-owned Halkbank on Wednesday for allegedly helping Iran evade US sanctions Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 07:20
Middle East oil producers face a reckoning. The Iran war exposed the dangers of relying on a single chokepoint for vital oil and gas exports, leaving Persian Gulf governments with a clear strategic imperative: diversify – at all costs. An Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had long been viewed as a “doomsday” event that would never happen. Experts assumed it would require a massive military effort and that Tehran would be reluctant to choke off its own exports. Those assumptions were proven painfully wrong. Iran imposed a near-airtight blockade using cheap drones, small vessels and mines, while continuing to export its own oil, at least until the US Navy imposed its own blockade on Iranian shipping. This stranded a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, triggering unprecedented turmoil across the region’s vast energy industry, with repercussions felt worldwide. Countries lost vital export revenues and were forced to shut down around 11 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production, along with multiple refineries and LNG facilities. While Washington and Tehran have agreed to negotiate a permanent peace deal, the “Hormuz genie” cannot be put back into the bottle. Future closures are now a real and persistent risk for the gulf and the global economy. As a result, developing alternative routes for exports of energy, chemicals and fertiliser has become a matter of economic survival for gulf nations. Saudi Arabia offers the clearest example of the benefits of building pipelines that circumvent Hormuz. Before the war, the world's largest oil exporter diverted around 60 per cent of its shipments to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, using a cross-country pipeline from the gulf coast. State-owned Saudi Aramco built the 1,200-kilometre (745-mile) route in the 1980s precisely to hedge against this type of scenario. That strategic foresight paid off. The International Monetary Fund said in April that it expects Saudi Arabia’s economy to grow by 3.1 per cent in 2026, down just 1.4 percentage points from its pre-war forecast. By contrast, Qatar, which had no alternative routes for its oil and LNG exports, could see its economy contract by 8.6 per cent this year, after growing by 2.8 per cent in 2025, according to the IMF. Other regional players have taken note. The United Arab Emirates was able to partially bypass Hormuz using its pipeline to the Fujairah oil terminal, located just outside the Strait. Fujairah was disrupted after it came under Iranian fire, but the UAE was still able to export around 1.8 million bpd, roughly half of its pre-war output. Abu Dhabi, which left OPEC in May to pursue an ambitious growth strategy, is now accelerating construction of a second pipeline to double export capacity via Fujairah by 2027. Iraq remains in an unenviable position. It is heavily reliant on Hormuz because most of its production is concentrated in the south. Authorities and companies operating in Iraq are thus examining ways to upgrade and expand northern export routes through Turkey and Syria. However, security and political concerns remain significant obstacles. Qatar and Kuwait face a far more complex challenge. Lacking alternative export routes within their own territories, both countries will effectively be forced to rely on neighbours to circumvent Hormuz. The predicament is especially acute for Qatar, the world’s leading LNG exporter. To gain access beyond the strait, the emirate would need to build a pipeline through the UAE to Fujairah or Oman, or across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea. Each option is fraught with geopolitical and commercial complications. Such projects would likely require constructing new liquefaction capacity outside the gulf, driving costs sharply higher. Taking this route would also leave Qatar heavily dependent on Saudi Arabia or the UAE - countries whose relations with Doha have been strained in recent years. This creates political and strategic risks that the country has long sought to avoid. Kuwait faces a similar dilemma. Developing alternative export routes would almost certainly require deepening energy integration with Saudi Arabia, further underscoring how geography may reshape regional alliances moving forward. Another response gaining traction is geographic diversification beyond the Middle East. Gulf national oil companies are increasingly looking to expand overseas operations, effectively creating a hedge against future regional disruption. QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) have led the way, building international portfolios spanning oil, gas and renewables. This trend is now apt to accelerate. Acquiring stakes in upstream assets, refineries, LNG facilities and storage terminals abroad would provide valuable income streams that are insulated from gulf risk. In a world where Hormuz can no longer be taken for granted, such investments offer the promise not just of growth, but also resilience. As Middle East producers begin the gradual recovery process, the race for diversification will reshuffle international alliances, shake up long-term government strategy and redirect investment. In other words, it could reshape the region for decades to come. (Reporting by Ron Bousso Editing by Marguerita Choy)
Oil prices drop further below 80 dollars a barrel as US-Iran peace deal signed Oil prices have eased back further below 80 US dollars a barrel after the US and Iran signed a deal to end the war and paved the way for the crucial Strait of Hormuz crude shipping route to be reopened. Benchmark Brent crude fell another 2% to 77.9 dollars a barrel, having reached as low as 77.1 dollars at one stage in Thursday morning trading, after Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif said leaders of both the United States and Iran had signed the peace-deal agreement. A formal signing ceremony will take place in Switzerland on Friday, but the deal comes into effect straight away and Mr Sharif, who is acting as mediator, said Iran will “instantly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the United States of America will immediately lift the naval blockade”. The agreement secures free passage of the strait for 60 days, with further talks due over the next two months. Oil prices are now falling back down towards levels seen before the US-Israel war on Iran. Brent crude stood at just under 73 dollars a barrel on February 27, the day before the conflict started. Oil prices were sent soaring to 120 dollars a barrel at one stage as the vital Strait of Hormuz was effectively blocked, closing a shipping route that normally carries a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies. But London’s stock market dropped soon after opening on Thursday, with the FTSE 100 Index down 0.7% at 10438.08 as oil and energy firms – which constitute around 10% of the index – fell due to the lower oil prices. BP and Shell both dropped more than 1% in the blue chip share index, while British Gas owner Centrica and National Grid were also around 1% lower. US President Donald Trump said overnight he had signed the agreement during a dinner at France’s Palace of Versailles, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, following a trip to the G7 summit in France. The initial peace deal – which was first heralded by Mr Trump on Sunday as he celebrated his 80th birthday – sees Iran agree not to develop or buy nuclear weapons and requires that Iran’s highly-enriched uranium be downgraded on site as a minimum. Read More In return, the US will move to waive some wide-ranging sanctions against Iran, immediately allowing Iran to sell its oil freely. Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at the Wealth Club, said: “The digital signing of the interim agreement between the US and Iran, ahead of an official ceremony on Friday, is exerting a fresh downward force on (oil) prices, as new supplies are expected to hit the market just as demand has been weakened by rationing and energy-efficiency measures.” The sharp declines in the cost of crude will help ease concerns over inflation, with fuel prices already having been sent sharply higher at UK pumps and worries that energy costs would be sent rocketing throughout the winter months. But stock markets failed to rally in response as investor attentions turned to comments last night by new US Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh as rates in America were held. His statement was seen raising the prospect of interest rate hikes in America, which took markets by surprise. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1% overnight. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: “If last night’s press conference was Warsh’s attempt to put clear blue water between him and Donald Trump, then he has succeeded. “Far from being a rate-cut obsessive, he has taken the committee down a more hawkish path, one they seem happy to follow.”
Lebanese media reports Israeli strikes in south of countrypublished at 08:49 BST Lebanese media is reporting Israeli strikes in the country, despite the US-Iran memorandum of understanding ruling them out. Lebanon's state-run National News Agency (NNA) says a person was killed by an Israeli strike on a car in Kfar Tebnit, in the Nabatieh area in southern Lebanon this morning. The agency also reported drone strikes in the towns of Beit Yahoun and Hadatha. Earlier, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) reported on Telegram that a soldier had been killed in an incident in southern Lebanon. The IDF said on X: "Hezbollah continue spreading their terror across southern Lebanon, threatening our civilians and soldiers." As we've been reporting, the memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran yesterday begins with the point: "The immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon." The Israeli government has yet to publicly respond to the US and Iran deal signing.
India news: Modi, Trump 'very close' to trade dealPublished June 18, 2026last updated June 18, 2026 What you need to know - Modi and Trump make 'significant progress' on US-India trade deal - At G7, Modi says Global South can not bear the brunt of the Iran war alone Tired of missing our real-time updates? Click here to add us as a Preferred Source on Google. Keep reading for the latest news on India on Thursday, June 18: Family of killed Indian sailor seeks compensation, martyr status Family members of deceased Indian seafarer Shivanand Chaurasia, killed on board a commercial vessel attacked by the US Navy near the Strait of Hormuz, are seeking martyr status for him. Chaurasia is one of the three Indian sailors killed in US strikes on commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz, last week. The US Central Command said American forces warned the crew before firing on the ship, which allegedly attempted to breach its naval blockade with a shipment of Iranian oil. Speaking to DW's Adil Bhat at their family home in the state of Uttar Pradesh, the sailor's wife said she sought Rs 1 crore compensation, employment and education for their son. News agency ANI later reported that the deceased's brother sought martyr status for his brother. India's air force delivers leaked exam's retest papers The Indian Air Force has carried out nearly 200 sorties over a three- to four-day period to deliver the question papers for the retest of an all-India pre-medical exam. The IAF used its Mi-17 helicopters and transport aircraft to ferry the sealed question papers, Indian news outlets reported. "The use of IAF aircraft is aimed at guaranteeing foolproof, time-bound delivery," the Times of India reported, citing an official. The National Eligibility cum Entrance Test for Undergraduates (NEET-UG) exam for 2026 was originally conducted in early May with about 2.2 million students in attendance. It is a pen and paper test which is taken at the same time across India. But this year's exam was canceled after the question paper was allegedly leaked. A retest is scheduled for June 21. India's opposition had earlier criticized the government's decision to rope in the IAF, saying it was "emergency scaffolding" and did not address the root cause. This is not the first time the crucial examination's question paper has been leaked. Critics blame corrupt bureaucracy, inadequate security measures, and poor action to quash cheating networks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is facing severe backlash from the opposition, student bodies and India's youth in general for the emotional and mental strain on students. Many have demanded the resignation of India's education minister, without success. Thousands of NEET-UG aspirants across the country have been protesting the leaked paper, with reports of student suicides On Wednesday, news channel NDTV reported that a 19-year-old took her own life because she had already appeared twice and was afraid to take the exam again. Modi at G7: Global South cannot be left alone to bear the brunt of Iran war Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday urged the Group of Seven (G7) nations and their financial institutions to aid the Global South's recovery from the disruption of the Middle East conflict. "The disruptions to fuel, fertilizer, and food supply chains caused by the crisis in West Asia will continue to have a significant impact on the Global South for some time," Modi said in a speech in France. "If we are truly committed to strengthening international solidarity, the most vulnerable countries should not be left to bear the burden of these crises alone," he said, calling on international financial institutions to "develop support mechanisms that help developing countries absorb such shocks and sustain their economic resilience." India's economy, among several other Asian nations, has been hit by the conflict which disrupted the supply chain of key raw materials to the continent. Moreover, the oil price shock has strained several industries. How is Modi's relationship to Trump? In the past, Modi and Trump have shown warmth and friendship towards each other, including bear hugs and periodic praises. But ties between Washington and New Delhi cooled over a series of issues, one of the largest being Trump's 50% tariffs on India. More recently, the US Navy attacked several vessels on the Strait of Hormuz, killing three Indian sailors. India's foreign minister lodged a "strong protest" with Washington, while US State Secretary Marco Rubio released a statement which didn't go down well with Indians. Trump appeared to smooth that out in front of reporters in France. "He's a very tough negotiator, one of the toughest, actually. So you look at this man, I'll give you a lesson," the US president said, speaking of Modi. "He's the most beautiful looking man. He looks so nice. He's like an angel, but actually he's a killer." Modi, Trump hail 'significant progress' in trade talks, but no deal signed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump made "significant progress" in the long-awaited trade deal as they met in France, India's Foreign Ministry said in a statement. "The leaders noted with particular satisfaction the significant progress made in negotiations towards an interim Bilateral Trade Agreement and instructed their officials to work towards a balanced, mutually beneficial, and commercially meaningful agreement at the earliest," India's Ministry of External Affairs said in a press statement. When a reporter asked Trump when the deal would be signed, the president said they were "very close." New Delhi and Washington are currently operating on an interim trade deal, arrived at in February after a phone call between Modi and Trump. A final deal was supposed to be negotiated by March, but has been delayed over Washington’s desired access to India’s farm sector, strained diplomatic ties, and fresh tariff threats from the US. Many hoped that the in-person meeting between Trump and Modi would do the trick. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will be visiting India next week. Welcome to our coverage Good morning! and welcome to DW's India news blog. This is Mahima Kapoor from the New Delhi bureau, here to give you sharp and clear insights into what's happening in the world's most populous country. We will cover the latest news points, what people are talking about and what the bureau has it's eye on. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is fresh from his meeting with US President Donald Trump, on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in France. Despite strained diplomatic relations and Washington's growing snubs to New Delhi, the two leaders seemed as friendly as ever. The meeting also seems to have pushed a critical and pending trade deal forward. At home, India is gearing up for the retest of the NEET-UG examinations. That's a national medical entry test taken by over 2.2 million students every year. The original exam, in May, was canceled after the paper was leaked, leading to several students committing suicide, the emergence of a youth movement demanding the education minister's resignation and a temporary ban on the messaging platform Telegram. Now all eyes are on the retake, which will also test India's capability to conduct the large-scale exam without failing its students. Meanwhile, India's eastern state of West Bengal appears to be operating on chaos. That's a month after Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party won power in the state for the first time in history, ending the rule of Indian political veteran Mamata Banerjee. Now, the survial of Banerjee and her party hangs in the balance. Stay tuned for all of that and more!
WASHINGTON (AP) — JD Vance was supposed to be spending the week promoting his new book, the kind of event a potential presidential candidate like the vice president typically uses to speak to a wide audience about his life and values ahead of a campaign. Instead, the rollout of Vance’s second book, “Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith,” has been largely crowded out by something else he’s put his name on: the tentative deal to end the Iran war. The Republican vice president has embraced the role of chief defender of the agreement he and President Donald Trump signed with Tehran, giving a series of interviews touting the memorandum of understanding as a success and releasing a video championing it. It’s a striking emergence for a politician who was known for his skepticism of foreign military interventions and who seemed reluctant to speak on the conflict when Trump launched it in late February. The vice president is poised to yoke himself further to the conflict’s outcome on Friday, when he’s expected to travel to Switzerland to kick off a new phase of negotiations with Iran. He was originally expected to attend a formal signing ceremony for the deal, but Trump formally signed it on Wednesday instead. Vance becoming a hype man for the agreement seems to be an all-in gamble that, should he decide to seek the White House in 2028, voters will reward him for being the face of ending an unpopular conflict. It’s also setting Vance up as the presumptive fall-guy should the deal with Iran falter. Trump joked about such a possibility on Wednesday. “If it works out, I’m going to take the credit. If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD,” Trump said. Officials release text of the deal after backlash The White House in a statement called Vance the president's “right-hand man and an invaluable member of the President’s talented national security team.” "That’s why the Vice President was trusted to lead these negotiations alongside Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner," White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said. "What President Trump and his team achieved on the battlefield and at the negotiating table is nothing short of remarkable and will strengthen American security for years to come.” But backlash, including from conservatives, began growing this week after the U.S. digitally signed the memorandum of understanding with Iran on Sunday. Luke Schroeder, a spokesman for the vice president, said in a statement: “It’s unfortunate that some Republicans are attempting to undermine the President’s efforts to achieve peace in the Middle East and ensure Iran never has a nuclear weapon.” Officials gave shifting answers about when they would release the text, but leaked copies of a draft were quickly met with anger and skepticism from Democratic and Republican U.S. lawmakers, as well as Israel and pro-Israel advocates. Their criticisms included concerns that the deal, meant to open a two-month negotiating period, seemed to offer Iran wins up front while guaranteeing little in return, and that Trump’s stated reason for launching the conflict, to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, remains unresolved. Vance has reiterated that Iran must meet its obligations. “If they don’t behave properly, they don’t get any of the benefits of this bargain,” he said Tuesday on Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends." In response to the backlash and mounting questions, the U.S. on Wednesday provided the text of the agreement to journalists. The agreement states that Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which is believed to be buried under rubble, must at minimum be diluted under international supervision. It also states that Iran shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons — a commitment it has made previously. But beyond stating that the U.S. and Iran will negotiate over Iran's nuclear program, other commitments still need to be worked out. Criticism on the right persisted after the text was released. Conservative radio host Erick Erickson, a hawk who has defended the war, said Wednesday: “This is an American surrender.” Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, criticized the agreement and said to reporters, “I think the president, unfortunately, is receiving bad advice.” Trump's ‘Operation Epic Fury’ has angered wings of his movement The conflict, which has stretched into its fourth month, has cleaved Trump’s broad Make America Great Again coalition and angered both those who favored a harder line against Iran and those drawn to Trump’s “America First” foreign policy underscored by a message of “no new wars.” Critics, including Republicans, have already started pointing fingers in Vance's direction, questioning whether the deal resembles the 2015 nuclear agreement struck by Democratic President Barack Obama and whether this new agreement achieves Trump’s stated objectives for launching the war. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a Trump ally and Iran hawk, had been skeptical of the agreement and referred to Vance on social media as “the architect of the deal." After the agreement was released, Graham issued a tepid statement of support, saying, “Whether or not the United States can reach an acceptable, verifiable deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program and other issues is yet to be determined, but I see little downside to trying.” Ben Domenech, The Daily Wire’s opinion editor, said on Fox News that everything he was hearing about the deal “seems bad” and appeared to cast blame on Vance by alluding to his first book, “Hillbilly Elegy." “Are we going to backslide into being some kind of ‘hillbilly Obama’ kind of GOP?” Domenech said. GOP allies say Vance can navigate the politics The Trump administration has not offered formal briefings to Congress on the details of the memorandum, but Vance has quietly started doing outreach to some Republican senators on Capitol Hill. Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, a close ally of Vance's, said the vice president would be able to assuage even critics within his own party who are skeptical of the deal because “JD is just the president’s messenger, and the president’s going to prove them all wrong.” Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said the deal “certainly adds to the national security and geopolitical chops” of Vance, who spent two years as a U.S. senator for Ohio before ascending to the vice presidency. But Cramer acknowledged the risks if the agreement goes awry. “I guess the nice thing is, if you’re not the No. 1 person, you can take credit and avoid risk, avoid the criticism, but probably not so easily,” Cramer said. Vance argues Iran is not a quagmire like the Iraq war In interviews this week, Vance has sought to speak directly to the skeptics in his party, a preview of the difficult explanations he may be pressed to make as a candidate on the war. On Megyn Kelly's show, the vice president said the critics “believe Iranian propaganda” about the deal. But he acknowledged some of the frustrations on the hawkish right while trying to reassure the anti-interventionists that the Iran conflict isn't the war in Iraq, where he served as a Marine. “We were never going to get the quagmire that a lot of people were worrying about because Donald Trump is just not George W. Bush,” he said. Democrats have stressed that even as Vance becomes the face of the Iran deal, the fate of any administration official who harbors presidential aspirations — particularly hawkish Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has largely been quiet in the agreement's final phases — will be tied to its outcome. “I think any member of this administration is going to rise or fall on the basis of the Iran war and the handling of the economy, and I don’t think there are exceptions,” said Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii. ___ Associated Press writer Will Weissert contributed to this report.
US and Iran peace framework signals major shift for global oil markets and trade MARKETS First tankers reportedly exit US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz ahead of US-Iran talks. A sweeping memorandum between the US and Iran could end months of conflict, reopen critical shipping routes and pave the way for hundreds of billions of dollars in economic investment. Image: Mario Tama / Getty Images via AFP A landmark Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran has raised hopes of a lasting end to hostilities in the Middle East while setting the stage for the reopening of one of the world's most important energy corridors, the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement, signed on 18 June, outlines a broad framework for ending military operations, lifting sanctions, restoring maritime trade and advancing economic reconstruction efforts that could reshape global energy markets and ease inflationary pressures worldwide. Under the agreement, both countries committed to an "immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts" and pledged not to initiate future military action against one another. The memorandum also commits both nations to respecting each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity while undertaking negotiations aimed at reaching a final agreement within 60 days. One of the most closely watched aspects of the agreement relates to the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping route through which a significant portion of the world's oil and gas supplies pass. The memorandum states that the United States will begin lifting its naval blockade and end all obstruction of Iranian maritime activity, with the blockade to be fully terminated within 30 days. At the same time, Iran has committed to facilitating safe passage for merchant vessels between the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. "The Islamic Republic of Iran shall make arrangements to the best of its ability to provide safe passage for merchant vessels, free of charge, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa for a period of 60 days only," the memorandum stated. The agreement further notes that merchant vessel traffic will commence immediately and be progressively restored over the next month, subject to mine clearance operations and the removal of military obstacles. For global markets, the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could provide much needed relief after months of disruption that contributed to elevated oil prices and renewed inflation concerns. The memorandum also contains significant economic provisions. The United States committed to developing, together with regional partners, a reconstruction and development programme for Iran worth at least $300 billion. "The United States of America commits to developing, with its regional partners, a definitive and mutually agreed upon programme for the economic reconstruction and development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, providing at least $300 billion," the document states. The programme's implementation framework will be finalised as part of the final agreement negotiations. Another major development is the commitment by the United States to end sanctions against Iran. According to the memorandum, Washington agreed to terminate all forms of sanctions, including United Nations Security Council measures, International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions and unilateral American sanctions under a timetable to be negotiated as part of the final agreement. The prospect of sanctions relief is expected to significantly increase Iran's participation in global trade and energy markets over time. The agreement also addresses one of the most contentious issues in US Iran relations, namely Iran's nuclear programme. Iran reaffirmed its commitment not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons and agreed to work with the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency on resolving the status of its stockpiled enriched nuclear material. "The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it will not produce or acquire nuclear weapons," the memorandum states. The two countries agreed to discuss enrichment activities and Iran's broader nuclear requirements within a mutually acceptable framework to be finalised in the comprehensive agreement. While many details remain subject to further negotiation, the memorandum represents one of the most significant diplomatic breakthroughs between the two countries in decades. For investors, policymakers and businesses, attention will now turn to the implementation of the agreement, the restoration of shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and the pace at which Iranian oil exports and broader economic activity can return to global markets. Should the agreement hold, analysts expect it could reduce geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, support global economic growth and ease some of the inflationary pressures that have weighed on economies around the world in recent months. Follow Business Report on Facebook, X and on LinkedIn for the latest Business and tech news.
Hours earlier, around when he was gathering for a birthday dinner with family inside the White House, Donald Trump had fired off a social media post announcing a deal to end the Iran War he’d started nearly four months earlier: “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade,” he declared on Truth Social. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Also read: Trump signs Iran ceasefire deal, warns of renewed bombing if Tehran violates pact But as with so much of the war, Trump’s rhetoric ran ahead of the facts on the ground. The text hadn’t been released, the formal signing was still days away and the hardest questions – nuclear, sanctions, Lebanon – had been kicked down the road. It almost didn’t happen. That morning around 6:45am in Washington, Israel bombed southern Beirut – exactly the kind of move that Iranian negotiators warned would blow up the talks. Israel said it was responding to projectiles fired by Tehran-backed Hezbollah. Across the West and the Gulf, critics saw something else: a last-ditch effort by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scuttle a deal he’d been shut out of. Iran balked, but four hours later, Trump took to social media to criticize the Israeli attack, which he said “should not have happened.” His frustration with his wartime partner was no longer secret. He told Axios that afternoon that the signing was delayed a few hours because of the strikes, and that he’d called Netanyahu to berate him over it. “I was so pissed off. I let him know,” he said in a expletive-laden tirade. Within a few days, the US president would be echoing some of Israel’s staunchest critics. But first he needed Iran to agree to sign. Three hours later, Trump had the thing he’d been promising for months: a deal, or at least the framework for one. There were no details beyond leaked drafts that suggested a financial bonanza for Iran: immediate oil waivers, potentially imminent sanctions relief, and a possible $300 billion reconstruction fund backed by Gulf money. For Washington, the gains were narrower: a reopened Hormuz, an end to the fighting, and another pledge that Iran wouldn’t pursue a nuclear weapon. The war had already cost the US tens of billions of dollars, strained munitions stocks and its alliances, sent pump prices soaring and roiled the global energy market – all to achieve a deal that risks falling short of the JCPOA struck by President Barack Obama that Trump had long criticized and tore up during his first term. As the cage emptied on the South Lawn, Trump prepared to fly to the Group of 7 meeting in Evian, France, where European leaders were ready to lavish praise on a deal they had not read. This account is based on interviews with Western and Middle Eastern officials familiar with the talks, who requested anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters, as well as draft language, White House talking points and contemporaneous accounts of the mediation efforts. As UFC fighters spattered blood on the canvas in front of the White House, Qatari mediators were in Tehran grinding through 17 hours of shuttle diplomacy, carrying messages between Iranian officials and the Americans, according to people familiar with the discussions. It was the culmination of four weeks of quiet mediation the wealthy Gulf state had undertaken at the request of both sides, each seeking a deal to end the war that had become a burden back home. Until mid-May, Qatar had played a supporting role, alongside Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, in the search for an off-ramp. Doha had long made itself indispensable as a regional intermediary, but it had deliberately avoided taking the lead here, in part because Tehran had targeted it and its Gulf neighbors, including hitting the $20 billion Ras Laffan LNG facility, the people said. But after Tehran and Washington asked it to get involved more directly, it secretly sent a delegation to Tehran – via Turkey, in order to evade detection – led by senior mediators Ali al-Thawadi and Hamad al-Kubaisi, to get a better understanding of Iran’s position, the people said. They were in Tehran working on the contours of a deal on May 17 when Trump again publicly floated bombing Iran, posting on Truth Social that “the clock is ticking” for Iran. The next day, he said he’d told his military to call off “the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow,” at the request of the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, because “serious negotiations are now taking place.” On May 19, the Qataris flew directly to Washington, again without publicity, where they met with Vice President JD Vance, and Trump’s lead negotiators, son-in-law Jared Kushner and real estate magnate Steve Witkoff, the people said. Soon after they departed, according to the people, the Qataris and Pakistanis heard from two Western states that Israel was considering attacking Iran. It would mark yet another potential spoiler, but after a US intervention, Israel backed down. The Qataris landed back in Tehran on May 22, later joined by Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, who spent hours locked in discussion with Iranian Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The key issues were Iran’s demand for a commitment to permanently end the war, Tehran’s willingness to discuss handing over its highly enriched uranium, and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran agreed to commit to discuss diluting the uranium or handing over the stockpile. In return, the US agreed to a phased process of sanctions relief tied to the progress of talks towards a final deal – an extraordinary financial lifeline for a regime under severe economic pressure. Two days later, Ghalibaf and Araghchi flew to Doha, along with Iran’s central bank governor, the people said. But they left without signing. In Washington, Trump was growing increasingly impatient, so the Qataris travelled to Miami, where they spent a day in talks with Witkoff and Kushner in a bid to keep the process on track. Meanwhile, Israel’s invasion of Lebanon kept bleeding into the Iran talks. It had already killed thousands and displaced more than 1 million people, a fifth of the population, while Hezbollah fire kept northern Israel under threat, and Netanyahu insisted on full autonomy to pursue the war. As May wore on, Trump’s anger increasingly shifted from Tehran to Jerusalem. Netanyahu, backed by widespread domestic support, insisted that he would continue to bombard Lebanon. As Israel continued to ramp up its campaign, Trump exploded at his Israeli counterpart in a profanity-laced phone call in which he told Netanyahu he was “crazy,” as first reported by Axios and later confirmed by the president. But talks were continuing behind the scenes. The war, never widely supported in the US, was becoming harder to defend, as inflation accelerated in May to the fastest pace in more than three years amid spiking gas prices. Since the start of the conflict, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's attacks on regional energy infrastructure have whipsawed oil prices, even after the first ceasefire was agreed in April. While prices have declined in recent weeks as the two sides negotiated a peace deal, both crude futures and the price of gasoline at the pump remain well above pre-war levels. Trump sounded increasingly keen for a deal – any deal – to end the conflagration that threatened to consume his second term. Americans have grown increasingly dissatisfied with his stewardship of the economy, polls show, putting his Republican Party at risk of losing control of Congress in November's midterm elections. “The one president I did not want to be was the late great Herbert Hoover. I didn't want that, and who knows what would have happened,” Trump said on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Iran – its leadership bloodied, its military battered – was preparing its own story of victory. The war had killed the Supreme Leader and scores of the regime’s upper ranks, and exposed how vulnerable the Islamic Republic had become. But it had survived, and in doing so revealed new strengths that led to a potential deal it could legitimately frame as a win: oil sales, sanctions relief and reconstruction money even before the nuclear question was settled. The first week of June nearly destroyed the talks – Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, but Hezbollah and the Israeli military continued firing on each other. Then Israel struck Beirut, and began trading fire with Iran. The next day, Trump, clearly frustrated by having to constantly publicly and privately urge Netanyahu to back off Lebanon, told the Financial Times that his Israeli counterpart would be forced to accept any deal he struck. “I call all the shots,” he said. He reportedly called Netanyahu that night to tell him to back down. But Israel fired on Iran the next morning anyway, and he was back on Truth Social, demanding an end to the fighting. Then, on June 9, an American Apache helicopter crashed near the strait after being hit by an Iranian drone, and Trump vowed to retaliate. The two sides exchanged fire over the next two nights, and on the 11th, the US struck targets in southern Iran – when the Islamic Republic closed its airspace, the Qatari mediators were left stranded on the runway. But they made it out, and when they arrived in Doha, regional leaders pressed Trump to hold off on further strikes, trying to convince him that a good deal was almost finalized, the people said. Netanyahu stepped out of a meeting with key ministers to take a call from Trump with the news a deal was close. Two days later, as UFC fighter Ilia Topuria was shoving Gaethje during a press conference in front of the Lincoln Memorial, Trump said the agreement would be signed on Sunday – and the Qatari negotiators flew back to Tehran for one final push. Over the course of 17 hours of negotiations, the team from Doha repeatedly threatened to walk as the Iranians pushed for further tweaks to the language of the framework deal, the people said. They were on the verge of an agreement when Netanyahu made the move that nearly broke the talks. Israeli airstrikes ripped through southern Beirut in response to Hezbollah firing on northern Israel. The move backfired – Trump called on Israel to stop, and the US offered Tehran a last-minute sweetener, according to one of the people: the US would immediately lift its blockade on Iranian ports, instead of the phased 30-day withdrawal envisioned in the original terms. In Israel, the response was furious – politicians across the ideological spectrum slammed Netanyahu for turning the country into a vassal of the US, and called his stewardship of the conflict a total failure. They decried Trump’s “betrayal.” The prime minister had pushed for the war for decades, arguing that his tight relationship with Trump was the only way to secure Israel’s future. Now with an election looming this fall – which could also decide his fate in a long-running corruption trial – that closeness had become a liability. Netanyahu had quietly dropped Israel’s initial demand that any deal include major steps to curb Iran’s missile program and proxy network, betting that the war had degraded both significantly. Israel is counting on the final deal to require Iran’s highly enriched uranium to be removed from the country, according to a person familiar with officials’ thinking, and would see anything short of that as a failure. But he’s promised Israelis that he would protect them from Hezbollah, a group that’s publicly called for his country’s destruction and fired thousands of rockets across the border. It took Netanyahu a full day to comment publicly on the deal, and when he did, he tried to emphasize his independence. “There are cases in which President Trump and I do not see eye to eye,” he said at a press conference on Monday. Trump was making that increasingly clear. By Tuesday, the president came close to echoing the prime minister’s harshest critics. “You don’t have to knock down an apartment house every time you’re looking for somebody,” Trump said on the sidelines of the G7. “There are a lot of people in those apartment houses and they’re not all Hezbollah.” In Evian, US allies were largely flying blind and kept it light. Their aim: don't upset Trump, focus on Iran and keep the reservations they were harboring about the deal private. At one point, while waiting for him to arrive at a working session, Italy's Giorgia Meloni shared with her cohort how she quit smoking. Quite a few of them had sparred with Trump and were looking to patch things up. She was one of them. Meanwhile, Trump was in a good mood. Canada's Mark Carney, whose country Trump often likes to refer to as the 51st US state, shared a joke with his southern neighbor. He was seen pointing out that host Emmanuel Macron had left his watch on the table. "Gimme," said Trump jokingly. Back home, Trump’s administration was trying to sell a deal that seemed to many observers to be a resounding defeat for the US. The administration drew up talking points on the MoU with five messages: Iran won’t ever have a nuclear weapon; Trump ended fighting on every front including Lebanon; Iran’s “rewards” weren’t coming from US taxpayers; Hormuz was open, toll-free; and the fact that “Obama never even got a signed document.” In Tehran, state media cast the framework as proof that Iran had brought the US and Israel to heel. The regime had paid dearly, but it had withstood both the region’s and the world’s greatest military powers and after 4 months of war had emerged battered but in at least one way stronger than before, with an economic weapon arguably more important than any nuclear bomb – an on-off switch for the Strait of Hormuz. As of Sunday, it had a deal that could see sanctions lifted and billions in assets unfrozen – via Qatar – in return, it just had to agree to abandon its ambitions for a nuclear weapons, something it’d done a decade earlier in the Obama deal. As he was wheels up, headed for a dinner fit for a king in the Palace of Versailles, the president kept people guessing whether in fact he might show up in person for the signing. “This way if it works out, I'm going to take the credit,” Trump said. “If it doesn't work out, I'm blaming JD.” He saved the biggest surprise of all to the end by actually signing the deal in Versailles, a historic location where the treaty formally ending World War I was also signed. It was an unexpected twist to the week, leaving G7 observers wondering whether Macron, looking to cement his own legacy, had planned it this way with Trump all along. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel)
First Iranian Oil Moves Past US Blockade Ahead Of Deal Signing