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Futures Fade Overnight Gains As Attention Turns To Kevin Warsh's First Fed Decision
Futures Fade Overnight Gains As Attention Turns To Kevin Warsh's First Fed Decision
Futures Fade Overnight Gains As Attention Turns To Kevin Warsh's First Fed Decision
Iran warns of response after Israeli strikes kill 4 in Lebanon
Iran warned Israel of a "harsh response" on Wednesday after accusing it of violating the Lebanon ceasefire 84 times since a US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the illegal US-Israeli war against Iran was agreed. The warning came after Israeli strikes killed four people in southern Lebanon and as Israeli forces continued operations around Nabatieh, raising doubts over whether the accord due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday will hold. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said continued Israeli attacks or the presence of Israeli forces in Lebanese territory would breach the interim agreement. “Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territories they occupied during this war, the war has not fully come to an end,” he said. Tehran has repeatedly stated that an end to hostilities in Lebanon forms part of any broader settlement with Washington, while Israeli leaders have signalled they intend to maintain military occupation in the south. According to a report by Israeli newspaper Maariv, Israeli officials have instructed security agencies to continue preparing military plans and have expressed doubts that the agreement will survive. Israeli minister Zeev Elkin said Israel was not party to the talks and had no right to demand access to the memorandum. He also said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected proposals tied to an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. US President Donald Trump criticised Israel’s conduct in Lebanon. “Israel has been fighting Hezbollah for too long and too many people are being killed,” he said. “You don’t need to knock down an apartment house when you are looking for somebody because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses, and they are not all Hezbollah.” Despite the criticism, Israeli forces carried out new strikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that Israeli jets hit Nabatieh al-Fawqa and the outskirts of Kfar Tebnit. The strikes followed drone attacks on Tuesday that killed at least four people in Nabatieh governorate. The attacks hit two vehicles in Mayfadoun and a third vehicle in Shoukin. Lebanon’s health ministry says Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,826 people and wounded 11,851 since fighting resumed on 2 March. The G7 nations, meeting in France, called for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon and backed efforts by the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah and restore state control over weapons. The statement also briefly pledged to accelerate humanitarian and reconstruction work in Gaza and called for an end to violence in the West Bank. The Guardian reported that Israeli settlers set fire to a mosque in Jiljiliya, north of Ramallah, and left Hebrew graffiti on the walls. The violence has raised pressure on the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. Pakistan, one of the mediators, said the agreement includes an immediate halt to military operations “on all fronts, including Lebanon”. The deal is due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. The signing is set to take place at the Burgenstock resort near Lucerne, with Pakistan and Qatar among the mediators behind the venue choice. Trump claimed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen by Friday and said the agreement would go to Congress for review. The agreement also includes talks on a proposed 300 billion dollar investment fund for Iran. Vice President JD Vance told CBS News that the fund was not a US payment to Tehran and that any economic benefit would depend on Iran meeting its obligations. “When people say that billions of dollars of assets will be released, that’s not true,” Vance told CBS. “What is true is that Iran will have a much better and much more prosperous future if they meet the obligations they make in this agreement.” The fund would be linked to private investment and support from Gulf partners, rather than direct US funds. The agreement also raises questions over frozen Iranian assets. Iran’s Mehr News Agency said a draft memorandum referred to the release of 24 billion dollars in frozen assets. Vance rejected that figure and said it did not appear in the texts discussed with Iran. The deal extends the ceasefire framework for 60 days. During that period, the US and Iran plan to negotiate over sanctions, nuclear inspections, enriched uranium and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s nuclear stockpile remains one of the central disputes. Iran holds more than 440kg of enriched uranium. Vance claimed that Tehran had agreed to surrender its stockpile, accept inspections and refrain from producing or buying nuclear weapons. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran’s Supreme National Security Council had approved the deal to test “America’s genuine commitment to respecting the rights of the Iranian nation”. HT
Iran warns of response after Israeli strikes kill 4 in Lebanon
Iran warns of response after Israeli strikes kill 4 in Lebanon
Iran warns of response after Israeli strikes kill 4 in Lebanon
Iran warns of response after Israeli strikes kill 4 in Lebanon
Iran warned Israel of a "harsh response" on Wednesday after accusing it of violating the Lebanon ceasefire 84 times since a US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the illegal US-Israeli war against Iran was agreed. The warning came after Israeli strikes killed four people in southern Lebanon and as Israeli forces continued operations around Nabatieh, raising doubts over whether the accord due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday will hold. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said continued Israeli attacks or the presence of Israeli forces in Lebanese territory would breach the interim agreement. “Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territories they occupied during this war, the war has not fully come to an end,” he said. Tehran has repeatedly stated that an end to hostilities in Lebanon forms part of any broader settlement with Washington, while Israeli leaders have signalled they intend to maintain military occupation in the south. According to a report by Israeli newspaper Maariv, Israeli officials have instructed security agencies to continue preparing military plans and have expressed doubts that the agreement will survive. Israeli minister Zeev Elkin said Israel was not party to the talks and had no right to demand access to the memorandum. He also said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected proposals tied to an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. US President Donald Trump criticised Israel’s conduct in Lebanon. “Israel has been fighting Hezbollah for too long and too many people are being killed,” he said. “You don’t need to knock down an apartment house when you are looking for somebody because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses, and they are not all Hezbollah.” Despite the criticism, Israeli forces carried out new strikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that Israeli jets hit Nabatieh al-Fawqa and the outskirts of Kfar Tebnit. The strikes followed drone attacks on Tuesday that killed at least four people in Nabatieh governorate. The attacks hit two vehicles in Mayfadoun and a third vehicle in Shoukin. Lebanon’s health ministry says Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,826 people and wounded 11,851 since fighting resumed on 2 March. The G7 nations, meeting in France, called for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon and backed efforts by the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah and restore state control over weapons. The statement also briefly pledged to accelerate humanitarian and reconstruction work in Gaza and called for an end to violence in the West Bank. The Guardian reported that Israeli settlers set fire to a mosque in Jiljiliya, north of Ramallah, and left Hebrew graffiti on the walls. The violence has raised pressure on the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. Pakistan, one of the mediators, said the agreement includes an immediate halt to military operations “on all fronts, including Lebanon”. The deal is due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. The signing is set to take place at the Burgenstock resort near Lucerne, with Pakistan and Qatar among the mediators behind the venue choice. Trump claimed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen by Friday and said the agreement would go to Congress for review. The agreement also includes talks on a proposed 300 billion dollar investment fund for Iran. Vice President JD Vance told CBS News that the fund was not a US payment to Tehran and that any economic benefit would depend on Iran meeting its obligations. “When people say that billions of dollars of assets will be released, that’s not true,” Vance told CBS. “What is true is that Iran will have a much better and much more prosperous future if they meet the obligations they make in this agreement.” The fund would be linked to private investment and support from Gulf partners, rather than direct US funds. The agreement also raises questions over frozen Iranian assets. Iran’s Mehr News Agency said a draft memorandum referred to the release of 24 billion dollars in frozen assets. Vance rejected that figure and said it did not appear in the texts discussed with Iran. The deal extends the ceasefire framework for 60 days. During that period, the US and Iran plan to negotiate over sanctions, nuclear inspections, enriched uranium and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s nuclear stockpile remains one of the central disputes. Iran holds more than 440kg of enriched uranium. Vance claimed that Tehran had agreed to surrender its stockpile, accept inspections and refrain from producing or buying nuclear weapons. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran’s Supreme National Security Council had approved the deal to test “America’s genuine commitment to respecting the rights of the Iranian nation”. HT
Iran warns of response after Israeli strikes kill 4 in Lebanon
Iran warns of response after Israeli strikes kill 4 in Lebanon
Iran warns of response after Israeli strikes kill 4 in Lebanon
Iran warns of response after Israeli strikes kill 4 in Lebanon
Iran warns of response after Israeli strikes kill 4 in Lebanon
Iran warns of response after Israeli strikes kill 4 in Lebanon
As negotiations over Iran's nuclear program continue, the fate of Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains one of the most difficult issues to resolve. Before US and Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimated that Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. While not weapons-grade, the material is significantly close to the 90 percent enrichment level generally associated with the production of nuclear weapons. The question now confronting negotiators is what should happen to that stockpile as part of a broader agreement between Tehran and Washington. In recent weeks, Kazakhstan has been mentioned as a possible third-party custodian. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said last month that Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev was open to the idea of storing Iranian uranium, and Astana later confirmed its willingness. "Several countries, including Kazakhstan, expressed readiness in a spirit of goodwill to provide technical assistance to resolve the issue, provided that relevant international agreements are reached between all parties involved and the matter moves into practical implementation," Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov said on June 1. A week after this statement, Kazakhstan's ambassador to Iran met with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi. Neither side disclosed whether a uranium transfer was discussed. A Nuclear Middle Ground Kazakhstan has strong nuclear credentials. Since 2019, it has hosted the world's only IAEA-owned low-enriched uranium bank, a 90-tonne facility backed by the United States, the European Union, Norway, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Astana also maintains relations with all major parties involved and has a long record in nuclear nonproliferation. "Kazakhstan is actually a very interesting and good choice," said John Roberts, an energy expert at the Atlantic Council. "It has an established nuclear industry and has been involved in nuclear power station construction." Yet technical qualifications may not be the decisive factor. Ali Vaez, a leading nonproliferation expert and director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, points out that the central obstacle is not logistics, but trust. Tehran is unlikely to view the uranium solely as nuclear material that needs secure storage: It is also a source of leverage in negotiations. "Given Tehran's deep-seated mistrust toward the US, it is unlikely to ship out all of its material or at once," Vaez said. "It would prefer to down-blend some of it at home to maintain leverage and ensure that Washington delivers on its end of the bargain." The Trust Deficit and Diplomatic Bottleneck That mistrust could complicate Kazakhstan's chances of becoming a custodian. For Iran, the destination country would need to be one that could guarantee the stockpile's return if an agreement falls apart. "The destination for shipping out the material should be to a country that Iran could trust would repatriate the stockpile to Iran in case the US reneges on its commitments," Vaez said. "The only options for this purpose are Russia and China." Yet those are precisely the options Washington has publicly rejected. US President Donald Trump publicly ruled out Russia and China as potential custodians of Iran's enriched uranium, telling reporters during a Cabinet meeting on May 27 that he would not be "comfortable" with either country taking control of the stockpile as part of a future agreement. Trump has also suggested Iran's enriched uranium should ultimately be transferred to the United States. In an April interview with Reuters, he said: "We're going to get it together... We'll bring it back to the United States." While Trump has ruled out Russia and China, Iran has categorically rejected transferring the uranium to the United States. That has increased interest in Kazakhstan, a country with extensive nuclear expertise, a record of cooperation with the West, and close ties to both Beijing and Moscow, as a possible middle-ground solution. If Kazakhstan were ultimately chosen, the arrangement could elevate the country's global standing. "It would certainly raise Kazakhstan's profile internationally," said former US Ambassador to Kazakhstan (2022–2025) Daniel Rosenblum in a recent Global Power Shifts podcast. "They like to see themselves as a neutral party and sometimes a mediator." Roberts argues such a role would be consistent with Kazakhstan's foreign policy, which has often sought to position the country as a bridge between competing powers. Vaez notes this ambition is a major driving force behind Astana's diplomacy: "Being part of a solution to resolve a conflict that has adversely affected the global economy and security is attractive to many countries." New Radioactive Fears for Already Suffering Town At the same time, accepting Iranian uranium would carry risks. The IAEA fuel bank at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Oskemen was designed to store low-enriched uranium intended for civilian nuclear reactors. Iran's stockpile, enriched to 60 percent, is classified as highly enriched uranium and would present entirely different requirements for storage and security. "The main concern is how securely it would be protected," said Daulet Asanov, an environmental scientist who monitors industrial hazards in Oskemen. "There could be interest from other states or organizations. With today's warfare, even drones can destroy infrastructure." Kazakhstan would also need to weigh the geopolitical implications. According to Roberts, Astana has spent years balancing relations with the West while preserving close ties with Russia and China. "Kazakhstan is pursuing a careful policy, developing relations with the West while maintaining ties with China and Russia," he said. Domestic reaction could prove equally sensitive. Oskemen is a city where environmental anxieties already dominate public debate, largely because residents are already suffering under severe industrial air pollution. Adding a controversial nuclear stockpile to the mix is a tough sell in East Kazakhstan, a region where cancer rates are already significantly higher than the national average. "People will likely react negatively," said environmental expert Roman Chestnykh. "Even low-enriched uranium storage has previously caused public concern." The IAEA did not respond to detailed questions from RFE/RL about the technical and safety requirements for storing uranium enriched to 60 percent in Kazakhstan. In a brief reply, the agency said it had taken note of the interview request but had no further updates to provide. Supporters of the proposal point to Kazakhstan's long experience in nuclear diplomacy. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country voluntarily gave up the nuclear weapons stationed on its territory. In 1994, Kazakhstan facilitated the transfer of roughly 600 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium to the United States in the operation later known as Project Sapphire. Kazakhstan also supplied natural uranium to Iran in 2015 as part of arrangements connected to the landmark nuclear agreement brokered that year between Tehran, the United States, and other global powers.
Read The 14-Point US-Iran Draft Deal Set For Friday Signing With US and Iranian officials preparing to formally sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, the conflict is entering the much-needed diplomatic phase to avert a potentially disastrous energy cliff. The MoU would open a 60-day negotiating window aimed at ending the war, restoring maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and hammering out the future of Iran's nuclear program. Bloomberg published the text of the 14-point draft MoU, offering the clearest look yet at the proposed trade: de-escalation and sanctions relief for Iran, in exchange for a ceasefire across all fronts, commitments on shipping access, and a broader nuclear deal to be finalized by the end of summer. But Iran’s Tasnim news agency cited an unnamed official earlier today, saying some of the MoU published by Bloomberg is inaccurate. The report did not specify the discrepancies. Bloomberg noted that some of the wording could be different between the English and Persian versions. Below is the text of the 14-point draft MoU: 1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles 2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs 3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent 4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement 5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran. 6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days. 7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary. 8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article. 9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region. 10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like. 11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis. 12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement. 13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles. 14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council Based on the text above, the first take of the MoU appears to be front-loaded economic relief for Tehran in exchange for a ceasefire, a nuclear freeze, and commitments to negotiate hard topics, such as the nuclear program, at a later date. Who Stands To Benefit: Tehran benefits most directly because it gets economic oxygen, oil waivers, frozen funds, sanctions relief language, and reduced US military pressure in the region. Hezbollah and Iran-aligned actors also benefit if “all fronts, including Lebanon” locks in a ceasefire that constrains Israeli operations. And, of course, the global economy because global shippers benefit if Hormuz reopens and war risk premiums in crude oil collapse. The Gulf states benefit if the conflict ends because energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz will resume. A report on Tuesday said that QatarEnergy was planning to ramp up LNG production in the coming months. Where is Leverage Lost: The US loses some coercive leverage once the Hormuz blockade ends, oil waivers are granted, and asset-release mechanisms begin. Israel loses freedom of action if the agreement binds the Lebanon front and limits further strikes. Sanctions and hawks lose leverage because the draft moves quickly toward broad sanctions dismantlement. The urgency behind the MoU and locking in peace talks for 60 days, with a formal signing event at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland on Friday, stems mainly from the world being headed for an energy cliff, as SPRs globally were being drained to offset the loss of Gulf production with the Hormuz chokepoint shuttered. Brent crude futures edged down overnight, trading around $79 a barrel on Wednesday morning. One of the biggest uncertainties remains the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated that the critical waterway will reopen permanently and be toll-free, but the MoU suggests the toll-free arrangement may only last through the 60-day negotiation period. Another major uncertainty is Tehran's compliance. Most Important Overnight Headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg): US-Iran Deal Framework • The US and Iran plan to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Switzerland, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending the war and limiting Iran's nuclear program • Iran will immediately take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the tentative deal is signed and will be allowed to sell its oil without restrictions, according to leaked copies of an interim agreement • Iran is set to receive broad financial incentives including the right to sell oil immediately, access to a $300 billion development fund, and eventual access to frozen assets • The US would secure at least $300 billion to rebuild Iran after the war under the accord Web Content - US 6:43 AM • The memorandum states only that Iran's stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium be 'adequately addressed,' leaving unresolved the fate of enough material to fuel multiple weapons International Reactions • Senate Republicans are pressing the Trump administration for details on the deal and signaled Congress will ultimately vote on the final agreement • European officials are wary of committing naval ships to clear Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz because of confusion about how the work would be done and Trump's strict end-of-week timeline • China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for greater international support for the next phase of Iran-US peace talks on Tuesday, cautioning that the interim agreement marks only the beginning of a longer peace process • European allies disagree with Trump's optimism that trade can resume by week's end and have practical questions about what was agreed before committing to de-mining missions Shipping and Energy Markets • A third fully-loaded crude tanker, the Suezmax Sonia I capable of hauling about 1 million barrels, left the Iranian port of Chabahar on Tuesday night and crossed the US blockade line heading toward Singapore • Two oil tankers heading toward Africa U-turned in the Indian Ocean this week, switching destinations to the Middle East as shipowners race to re-position vessels ahead of the possible Strait of Hormuz reopening • Qatar is beginning to bring some of its LNG tankers back to the Middle East, with at least four empty vessels recently heading toward the region after being idle or heading in a different direction • Brent oil fell below $80 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time in more than three months as the US-Iran deal boosted expectations for a revival in supply • The prediction market Kalshi assigns a 51% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal before August 1 and a 68% probability before September 1 Oil Market Impact • The IEA said world oil consumption will slump by 1.1 million barrels a day this year, the biggest drop since the Covid pandemic in 2020, as higher fuel prices and disruptions curb buying • The IEA previously expected a decline of about 420,000 barrels a day, making the revised forecast much deeper than anticipated • A potential peace deal paves the way for a renewed supply glut in 2027, according to the IEA Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 07:45
Read The 14-Point US-Iran Draft Deal Set For Friday Signing
Read The 14-Point US-Iran Draft Deal Set For Friday Signing