What the US-Iran talks collapse says about their approach to negotiations

Summary

The collapse of US-Iran talks at Islamabad on April 11-12 was not totally unexpected, given the maximalist position taken by the opposing sides. However, the very fact that the two sides agreed to sit on the negotiation table after 47 years in itself was seen as a major diplomatic breakthrough. In diplomacy, dialogue is seen as a process, wherein the opening rounds generally seek to create a frame work, lower tension and stabilise the trajectory of the negotiations, rather than the quantified outcomes. Given the high-level composition of delegations — the US led by Vice Present JD Vance and Iran by the Assembly speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf along with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi — it was apparent that both sides were serious about negotiations. The talks got deadlocked due to a wide divergence in the stance adopted by the two sides. Iran was pushing for a comprehensive package, i.e. ceasefire in Lebanon, sanctions relief, unfreezing of the assets (around $ 120 billion), sovereignty over Strait of Hormuz and recognition of Tehran’s regional role, beside the security guarantees. The US on the other hand sought a narrower frame work — roll back of nuclear programme, take control of the enriched Uranium (around 440 kg) and opening of Hormuz, adopting accretive approach with respect to sanctions and frozen assets. The deep trust deficit proved to be an unsurmountable impediment. Iran’s past experience, particularly with regards to the ‘Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’ (JCPOA) agreement — its abrogation, followed by the mutual accusations — continue to overshadow every engagement initiative with America. There are of course domestic constraints as well. In Tehran, yielding under pressure risks undermining the Regime’s legitimacy. Moreover, the Iranian leadership has repeatedly declared its refusal to negotiate under threat. In Washington, any perceived concession would certainly invite political backlash. Israel maintaining a hard line stance against any deal that does not seek curtailment of Iran’s nuclear potential also acts as strategic pressure on the US. After the talks fell apart, both sides have come out with statements to project their respective positions and put the ball in the opponent’s court. On Sunday, April 12, Vance announced that after marathon 21 hours talks, his negotiation team was leaving Pakistan without reaching the deal. “America had put forward its ‘best and final’ proposal; We need to see an affirmative commitment that they (Iran) will not seek a nuclear weapon,” said Vance. As per the Iranian State media, the talks failed over ‘unreasonable’ demands by the American side. Ghalibaf said, “It is time for the US to decide whether it gain our trust or not.” Outside the White House, US President Donald Trump told the reporters that, “Whether we make a deal or not with Iran, it made no difference”. “Regardless of what happens, we win,” he further added. A few hours later, Trump threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Immediate impact With the collapse of the negotiations, the ceasefire would come under stress. Both sides will try to exert pressure by aggressive posturing through deterrence, which could lead to graduated escalation. It may not return to the full- scale war, which both sides would like to avoid, but could shift towards grey zone confrontations. With no diplomatic breakthrough, the energy markets are faced with new volatility, given the uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz. Even limited threat of disruption will lead to spike in the oil prices and consequent inflationary pressures. What will Iran and the US do next? While it is difficult to predict, most probably the conflict is likely to witness controlled escalation. With Hormuz having emerged as the centre of gravity-decisive leverage with Iran, US focus of operations will now be towards this critical water way. Any military action in the Strait by the US is likely to be contested by Iran, which will definitely heighten the tension in the area. Alongside military escalation, there could be negotiation reset; resumption of talks, with some flexibility in the current stated positions. The US may agree to limited lifting of sanctions and also unfreeze some assets and ensure ceasefire on the Lebanon front. Iran may reciprocate favourably on Hormuz and the nuclear issue, making measured concessions. The chances of conflict now spiralling into full war is unlikely, lest there is a major miscalculation. China and Russia will continue to influence the future course of action, albeit in restrained manner — superpower rivalry bounded by shared caution. Control of choke points is the new geopolitical reality. India has high stakes in the stability of the region, given its political and maritime interests. It is reaching out all the countries in the Gulf and around to remain in sync with rapidly evolving geo political dynamics. Diplomacy remains the best option The talks at Islamabad collapsed due to incompatibility of the expectations and not owing to the absence of dialogue. Both sides seek off ramp, without making major concessions. The window of diplomacy is still open- while the strategic gap between the two still is too wide and political cost of bridging remains very high. The world is watching anxiously as to how this paradox will be resolved, and how long the global economic uncertainty lasts.

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Maj Gen Prof G G Dwivedi; YasheeBy Maj Gen Prof G G Dwivedi; Yashee

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US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Iranian President to visit Pakistan on Tuesday as peace talks yield 60-day roadmap

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Advertisement US-Iran peace deal US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Iranian President to visit Pakistan on Tuesday as peace talks yield 60-day roadmap New Delhi,UPDATED: Jun 22, 2026 19:20 IST US-Iran Peace Deal News Live Updates: US-Iran diplomacy gained momentum after a marathon round of talks in Switzerland produced what mediators Pakistan and Qatar described as a roadmap for a final agreement within 60 days.

US Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors into the country and work on mechanisms covering frozen Iranian assets, regional ceasefires and the Strait of Hormuz. Vance said discussions on nuclear inspections could begin as early as this week, while technical teams will remain engaged even after Iran's top negotiators returned to Tehran following 18 hours of intensive negotiations.

The talks also established a communication channel to help ensure safe commercial shipping through Strait of Hormuz and a mechanism aimed at preventing renewed fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite the diplomatic progress, tensions remained visible.

Iran had briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, accusing the United States of failing to uphold commitments to halt fighting in Lebanon. However, mediators said discussions were held in a constructive atmosphere and yielded encouraging progress.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is set to visit Pakistan on Tuesday in a trip expected to focus on bilateral cooperation and follow-up discussions on Islamabad's mediation efforts. Meanwhile, a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon largely held, marking the longest lull in violence in three months of conflict.

Lebanese officials reported near-total adherence to the truce despite isolated incidents, while Israeli leaders insisted any final agreement must ensure Iran cannot use future financial relief to support military activities or regional proxy groups.

Follow IndiaToday.in for the latest updates....Read More Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to arrive in Pakistan on a one-day visit on Tuesday. (File Photo: Press TV) 2 Jun 22, 2026 19:20 IST US-Iran Deal: Iranian President to visit Pakistan Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will make a one-day visit to Pakistan on Tuesday, Iranian officials said.

Habib Abbasi, director-general of public relations at the presidential office, said the trip will focus on implementing previous agreements and exploring new trade opportunities. Pezeshkian is also expected to "express appreciation" for Pakistan's role in mediating between Iran and the United States, according to Tasnim news agency.

Jun 22, 2026 19:14 IST US-Iran Deal: Here's what happened so far - US Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iran made significant progress, with Tehran agreeing to allow nuclear inspectors, establish mechanisms for handling frozen assets and support efforts to manage regional ceasefires.

- Speaking after negotiations in Switzerland, Vance said discussions on nuclear inspections could begin as early as this week and confirmed that technical talks would continue in the coming days and weeks. - Iran’s senior negotiating team departed Switzerland for Tehran after 18 hours of intensive discussions, while technical experts remained behind to continue work on the Islamabad memorandum of understanding.

- Pakistan and Qatar, which mediated the talks, said Washington and Tehran agreed on a roadmap aimed at reaching a final agreement within 60 days and described the first round of negotiations as encouraging. - The two sides also agreed to establish a mechanism to help prevent clashes in Lebanon and create a communications channel to safeguard commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil supplies.

- The talks followed an interim agreement reached last week and continued despite renewed tensions after President Donald Trump threatened military action against Iran and Tehran warned Washington over its rhetoric. - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled to visit Pakistan on Tuesday for a one-day trip.

Iranian officials said he would discuss bilateral cooperation and express appreciation for Islamabad’s role in facilitating US-Iran diplomacy. - A ceasefire in Lebanon largely held on Monday, marking the longest period of relative calm in nearly three months of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, although isolated incidents were still reported.

- Lebanese security officials said adherence to the ceasefire had been "almost total" since Saturday evening, despite reports of limited Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon and drone flights over Beirut. - The conflict in Lebanon has remained a major test for the interim US-Iran agreement, with Tehran previously accusing Washington of failing to ensure an end to hostilities and briefly reimposing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

- Vance said progress had also been made toward reducing tensions in Lebanon, while negotiators worked to establish safeguards aimed at preventing future escalation. - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the release of some frozen assets and the launch of a reconstruction and development programme under the broader diplomatic framework.

- Oil prices, which surged after tensions disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, fell further after the latest round of talks, easing concerns about global supply disruptions. - Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described the negotiations as constructive and said the first round of talks had concluded successfully, laying the groundwork for a broader peace agreement.

- Israeli officials signalled support for a diplomatic resolution but stressed that any final deal must ensure Iran cannot use financial relief or released assets to fund military activities or regional proxy groups.

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