U.S. Hormuz blockade hits India just as Russian oil purchase waiver expires, deepening energy worries

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U.S. Hormuz blockade hits India just as Russian oil purchase waiver expires, deepening energy worries - India is increasingly finding that U.S. policies work to its detriment, particularly in matters of energy security. - The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to cut Iranian oil supply will hurt India, which imported its first Iranian oil shipment in seven years. - The strain on India's energy supplies has been compounded as a U.S. waiver allowing countries to buy Russian crude expired on April 11. - India bought 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude in March, after the U.S. issued it a specific waiver. India, even as it tilts towards the U.S., is increasingly finding that Washington's policies work to its detriment, particularly in matters of energy security. The Iran war has only exacerbated the issue. On Monday, the U.S. began blocking ships from entering or exiting Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints — in a bid to pressure Tehran after peace negotiations collapsed. Experts said the move dealt a blow to New Delhi, which had just imported its first Iranian oil shipment in seven years as it scrambled to meet energy needs amid the Iran war. Compounding the strain, a U.S. waiver allowing countries to buy Russian crude expired on April 11, removing another key source of energy supply as global markets remain tight. Mukesh Sahdev, chief oil analyst at energy intelligence firm XAnalysts, told CNBC that India is facing a mounting supply squeeze "with the loss of Iranian barrels, plus not getting the Russian barrels." India imports more than 85% of its crude oil requirements — around 5.5 million barrels per day — making it the world's third-largest oil importer. According to Sahdev, the country has already lost about 3 million barrels per day of crude that previously transited through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing refiners to scramble for alternative supplies, particularly from Russia. India is in a far more fragile position if disruptions to its crude supply persist, Sahdev said, adding that, unlike China — which holds around 300 days' worth of oil reserves — India has reserves of roughly 160 million barrels, representing only a limited buffer of around 30 days against prolonged supply shocks. While fuel pumps are not running dry, the impact of the Middle East conflict is already visible in key macroeconomic indicators. Last month, HSBC's flash Purchasing Managers' Index showed that India's private sector activity in March slowed to its lowest level since October 2022 due to softer domestic demand. Companies surveyed cited the Middle East conflict, unstable market conditions, and intensifying inflationary pressures as factors weighing on growth. A few days later, India's finance ministry also issued a warning that its growth forecast of 7.0%–7.4% for the financial year ending March 2027 faces "considerable downside" risk due to rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions linked to the Iran war. Strategic autonomy? The current crunch underscores a broader challenge for India as it tries to balance its economic and energy needs with U.S. strategic expectations. New Delhi has long championed strategic autonomy, especially in energy security, but recent U.S. actions have increasingly constrained its room for maneuver, experts said. Last year, Washington imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports and accused New Delhi of indirectly funding Russia's war in Ukraine by importing discounted Russian crude. In an effort to secure a trade deal with the U.S., India subsequently cut back on Russian oil purchases and ramped up imports from the Middle East. That strategy unraveled after the outbreak of war in the region disrupted Middle Eastern supplies, pushing India back toward Russian crude amid rising fuel prices and tight global markets — only for the U.S. waiver to lapse this month. "I feel bad for the Indian government," said Samir Kapadia, managing principal at the Vogel Group, speaking on CNBC's Inside India. Indian policymakers, he added, are frequently being told by Washington whether they can or cannot buy energy supplies from Russia or Iran. "They're on a seesaw right now, trying to balance the expectations of the United States," Kapadia said. "There is no easy out for India." According to data shared by energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy, India bought 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude in March, after the U.S. offered it a specific 30-day waiver allowing it to resume purchases. A week later, Washington temporarily authorized all purchases of Russian oil stranded at sea to stabilize energy markets, suspending sanctions imposed after Russia invaded Ukraine. That authorization expired on April 11, and experts say the lapse could push oil prices higher, potentially forcing Washington to extend the waiver in an effort to cool markets. "The market is already squeezed, and India is expecting that this waiver will get extended," said Pankaj Srivastava, senior vice president at energy research firm Rystad Energy. For now, the government is seeking to play down immediate risks. On Monday, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said that "all refineries were operating at high capacity and that crude inventories were adequate." The ministry did not respond to CNBC's requests for further comment.

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Priyanka SalveBy Priyanka Salve

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Jun 22, 2026diplomacyUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Iranian President to visit Pakistan on Tuesday as peace talks yield 60-day roadmap

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Advertisement US-Iran peace deal US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Iranian President to visit Pakistan on Tuesday as peace talks yield 60-day roadmap New Delhi,UPDATED: Jun 22, 2026 19:20 IST US-Iran Peace Deal News Live Updates: US-Iran diplomacy gained momentum after a marathon round of talks in Switzerland produced what mediators Pakistan and Qatar described as a roadmap for a final agreement within 60 days.

US Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors into the country and work on mechanisms covering frozen Iranian assets, regional ceasefires and the Strait of Hormuz. Vance said discussions on nuclear inspections could begin as early as this week, while technical teams will remain engaged even after Iran's top negotiators returned to Tehran following 18 hours of intensive negotiations.

The talks also established a communication channel to help ensure safe commercial shipping through Strait of Hormuz and a mechanism aimed at preventing renewed fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite the diplomatic progress, tensions remained visible.

Iran had briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, accusing the United States of failing to uphold commitments to halt fighting in Lebanon. However, mediators said discussions were held in a constructive atmosphere and yielded encouraging progress.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is set to visit Pakistan on Tuesday in a trip expected to focus on bilateral cooperation and follow-up discussions on Islamabad's mediation efforts. Meanwhile, a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon largely held, marking the longest lull in violence in three months of conflict.

Lebanese officials reported near-total adherence to the truce despite isolated incidents, while Israeli leaders insisted any final agreement must ensure Iran cannot use future financial relief to support military activities or regional proxy groups.

Follow IndiaToday.in for the latest updates....Read More Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to arrive in Pakistan on a one-day visit on Tuesday. (File Photo: Press TV) 2 Jun 22, 2026 19:20 IST US-Iran Deal: Iranian President to visit Pakistan Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will make a one-day visit to Pakistan on Tuesday, Iranian officials said.

Habib Abbasi, director-general of public relations at the presidential office, said the trip will focus on implementing previous agreements and exploring new trade opportunities. Pezeshkian is also expected to "express appreciation" for Pakistan's role in mediating between Iran and the United States, according to Tasnim news agency.

Jun 22, 2026 19:14 IST US-Iran Deal: Here's what happened so far - US Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iran made significant progress, with Tehran agreeing to allow nuclear inspectors, establish mechanisms for handling frozen assets and support efforts to manage regional ceasefires.

- Speaking after negotiations in Switzerland, Vance said discussions on nuclear inspections could begin as early as this week and confirmed that technical talks would continue in the coming days and weeks. - Iran’s senior negotiating team departed Switzerland for Tehran after 18 hours of intensive discussions, while technical experts remained behind to continue work on the Islamabad memorandum of understanding.

- Pakistan and Qatar, which mediated the talks, said Washington and Tehran agreed on a roadmap aimed at reaching a final agreement within 60 days and described the first round of negotiations as encouraging. - The two sides also agreed to establish a mechanism to help prevent clashes in Lebanon and create a communications channel to safeguard commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil supplies.

- The talks followed an interim agreement reached last week and continued despite renewed tensions after President Donald Trump threatened military action against Iran and Tehran warned Washington over its rhetoric. - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled to visit Pakistan on Tuesday for a one-day trip.

Iranian officials said he would discuss bilateral cooperation and express appreciation for Islamabad’s role in facilitating US-Iran diplomacy. - A ceasefire in Lebanon largely held on Monday, marking the longest period of relative calm in nearly three months of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, although isolated incidents were still reported.

- Lebanese security officials said adherence to the ceasefire had been "almost total" since Saturday evening, despite reports of limited Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon and drone flights over Beirut. - The conflict in Lebanon has remained a major test for the interim US-Iran agreement, with Tehran previously accusing Washington of failing to ensure an end to hostilities and briefly reimposing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

- Vance said progress had also been made toward reducing tensions in Lebanon, while negotiators worked to establish safeguards aimed at preventing future escalation. - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the release of some frozen assets and the launch of a reconstruction and development programme under the broader diplomatic framework.

- Oil prices, which surged after tensions disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, fell further after the latest round of talks, easing concerns about global supply disruptions. - Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described the negotiations as constructive and said the first round of talks had concluded successfully, laying the groundwork for a broader peace agreement.

- Israeli officials signalled support for a diplomatic resolution but stressed that any final deal must ensure Iran cannot use financial relief or released assets to fund military activities or regional proxy groups.

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