Futures Fall, Oil Rises As Mideast Violence Flares Up

Summary

Futures Fall, Oil Rises As Mideast Violence Flares Up US futures are but well off session lows, as part of a weaker risk tape after the US and Iran exchanged strikes, fueling doubts whether an end to the war is imminent and crushing hopes for a Hormuz deal (gasp). Overnight, US forces carried out airstrikes on an Iranian military site which Centcom described as "purely defensive" and designed to maintain the ceasefire; it also imposed new sanctions to prevent Tehran from profiting from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran targeted the American airbase from which the attack originated. Centcom said that Kuwait also intercepted a ballistic missile launched toward it. While S&P futures initially tumbled as much as 0.5% on the news in overnight trading, they since recovered much of the losses, but were still down 0.2% as of 8:00am, with Nasdaq futures down 0.5%. In premarket trading, Mag7 names are mostly lower as Semis are sold and Software bid post earnings releases. Defensives and Energy are the notable outperformers as the market resumes its US / Iran playbook; EM likely to underperform DM. Bond yields are up 1-2bp as the yield curve bear flattens; the 10Y is up to 4.50%, after earlier rising to 4.53%. Crude prices are not seeing as dramatic of a response as earlier in the conflict; natgas is trading lower, Ags higher, and metals for sale as USD sees a bid. Today’s macro data focus is on PCE, Income, and Spending to gauge the depth of the impact from the Middle East Conflict with add’l updates to Durable / Cap Goods, Jobless Claims, and 26Q1 GDP revisions. Aside from a resumption of the kinetic conflict / failure for a deal, JPMorgan views inflation as the biggest risk to Equities with bond yields as the transmission mechanism. Today’s print will be important but given the status of the conflict, next month’s CPI print is likely the more important print. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Microsoft +0.9%, Meta +0.2%, Apple -0.2%, Amazon -0.4%, Alphabet -0.5%, Nvidia -1.1%, Tesla -1.3%) Braze Inc. shares (BRZE) are down 11% after the cloud—based software company reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook. Despite the stock’s decline, analysts are broadly positive, and recommended buying on weakness. BRP Inc. (DOO) rises 8.1% after it boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, which beat the average analyst estimate. Caesars Entertainment (CZR) rises 2% after Fertitta Entertainment agreed to acquire the company in an all-cash transaction valued at about $17.6 billion. Dollar Tree shares (DLTR) rise 10% after the retailer boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year above the consensus estimate after stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter. Dominion Energy Inc. shares (D) rise 0.5% after Jefferies raised its recommendation on the utilities company to buy from hold on the NextEra Energy merger. Everpure shares (P) fall 11% as the computer storage company gave a full-year revenue guidance that implied slower growth in the second half of the year amid higher prices. HP Inc. shares (HPQ) drop 1.6% as higher memory chip prices weigh on the PC maker’s profit forecast for the third quarter. Marvell Technology shares (MRVL) fall 2.7% as the chipmaker’s modest beat failed to impress investors with high expectations. NCino shares (NCNO) rise 12% after the cloud banking company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year as subscription revenues increase on AI demand. Photronics shares (PLAB) fall 26% after it forecast adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Shares in drone-related firms (UMAC +27%, RCAT +15%) are rallying after the Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration is exploring funding deals with a group of drone companies. Synopsys shares (SNPS) are down 2% after the electronic design automation software company reported its second-quarter results. In other news, Snowflake surged after the software maker gave a stronger-than-expected annual outlook and signed a $6 billion multi-year agreement to use Amazon’s cloud services and chips. In contrast, Salesforce results and outlook didn’t do enough to erase concerns over AI-related disruption. D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria said the shift to AI for Salesforce is taking longer than expected. In terms of space exploration and drone technology, the Trump administration is said to be negotiating funding deals with drone companies designed to boost production and lower weapon costs, according to the WSJ. Space exploration has all the ingredients “for the next bubble squeeze,” according to Mike O’Rourke of Jonestrading. The latest flare-up between the US and Iran showed the fragility of their ceasefire, despite most traders viewing a lasting deal between the sides as only a matter of time. The prospect of oil-driven inflation is also building, prompting central bankers to increasingly warn that interest rates may need to rise. “The market is caught between two very different worlds,” said Aneeka Gupta, director of macro-economic research at Wisdomtree. “One where we get a deal, and you have a follow-through of a very powerful cyclical recovery, and another where the conflict process deepens the stagflation impact on the economy.” WTI crude oil rose but remained below levels seen earlier in the week. Bloomberg Economics notes that Trump retains market-moving power on the commodity. “If we adjust for the drop in background volatility since the ceasefire with Iran began, each headline from the White House still moves crude-oil prices by the same amount as it did in the early days of the war,” he says. For stocks, volatility remains low and the ‘vol of vol’ gauge hit a rarely seen sub-90 reading on Wednesday. Less than a day after Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook warned that inflation was headed in the wrong direction, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that consumer prices were still “much too high.” The Fed’s Philip Jefferson said that inflationary risks remained tilted to the upside even as he expects the effects of tariffs and higher energy costs to wear off. The ripple effects of the war will occupy the European Central Bank even after the conflict is resolved, according to Chief Economist Philip Lane. Elsewhere, the AI bull case faces a headwind in the form of rising token costs, raising the question of whether escalating Large Language Model expenses now present a bigger risk to the AI trade than equity valuations. The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index, measuring the dollar cost per one million tokens, has doubled in six months. Goldman's Delta One head Rich Privorotsky joined the discussion overnight with the following observation on Token economics: "Reading that DeepSeek reportedly cut token pricing by 75% and Xiaomi’s MiMo by almost 99% immediately brought back memories of the old Groupon subsidy wars and the inevitable race to the bottom economics of commoditized delivery. There’s also been a massive rise in open-source enthusiasm. I was honestly blown away running an 8B version of Qwen locally on a four-year-old MacBook last night (ok it couldn't do much but it felt downloading the internet in 5gb...18ms ago you would have need a data center for this!). Notably, Chinese onshore datacenter and AI infrastructure names have diverged sharply post release (they all went down). Maybe a bit of a leap here but I think the market is beginning to ask whether token cost compression temporarily breaks the logic of pure Jevons paradox demand expansion. It's not whether demand ultimately rises… it probably does… but whether there is a meaningful lag where cheaper tokens simply cannibalize higher cost inference before entirely new use cases emerge. Nobody is arguing open source models are fully comparable to frontier systems, although the quality gap is clearly narrowing quickly. The more important point is that a huge percentage of enterprise tasks simply do not require frontier level reasoning or expensive inference. That becomes a major boardroom conversation into Q2/Q3. Rationalization of token spend may become just as important as the AI growth narrative itself, particularly when “90% of the output for 10% of the cost” becomes increasingly viable through open source alternatives." Earnings and economic data will also be in focus for traders today looking for signs of the “K-shaped” economy with results from a number of consumer facing corporates, while the Fed gets an important inflation print ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as chair next month. Bloomberg expects the PCE deflator to slow from March’s red-hot print to a still-hot reading in April, driven by gas and food prices. A number of Fed speakers gave views overnight. Jefferson said he expects inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and higher energy costs wear off, though he warned inflationary risks remain tilted to the upside. Kashkari warned that consumer prices remain “much too high.” Meanwhile Goolsbee again cautioned that increased investment and spending due to a projected surge in future productivity growth may be inflationary. Thursday data is expected to show that the US personal consumption expenditures price index jumped 3.8% in April from a year ago. That would put inflation a full percentage point higher than it was in February, marking the biggest two-month acceleration since 2021. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, said the fact that markets have given up on Fed rate cuts for the foreseeable future means it will take a major downside surprise in core PCE for bonds to move significantly. “For the question if and by how much the Fed may raise rates later on, we need to watch whether the Iran shock filters through into non-energy prices,” Schmieding said. The caution in markets and worries that equities have run too hard are misplaced, said Mathias Heim, chief investment officer at Belle Capital. “If a peace deal takes another two weeks or two months, I don’t think markets care as much anymore unless oil meaningfully breaks higher,” Heim said. “The elephant in the room is the AI capex cycle, which drives profit growth and multiples. Structurally, equities remain the go-to asset class.” In other news, Perella Weinberg Partners is cutting almost 10% of its workforce, including a dozen partners, to channel resources into higher-performing areas of its business. Eli Lilly said it will press ahead with global drug launches despite uncertainty over the Trump administration’s Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) pricing proposal. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.7%; tech saw the biggest gains, rebounding from losses in the prior session, while healthcare and media fell. Here are the biggest movers Thursday: Soitec shares climbed as much as 21%, resuming their stellar year-to-date rally after three days of losses PPHE Hotel Group jumped as much as 25%, the biggest jump since 2011, after the owner and operator of upscale hotels said it received an indicative takeover proposal worth £22 per share from Fattal Hotel Group Salvatore Ferragamo gained as much as 9.3%, the most since May 7, after saying it has launched a share buyback program for up to 5% of its share capital Computacenter shares rose as much as 1.9%, hitting a record high, after the company said it is buying a value-added reseller focused on the US federal government market, which will immediately boost earnings upon completion X-Fab shares fell as much as 8.7% on Thursday, giving back some gains after the stock was recommended by a popular X account a day earlier Shares in UK homebuilders fell after a series of downgrades from Goodbody, which highlights the sector’s profit-margin headwinds stemming from a weakening macro climate, particularly higher interest rates, and build-cost inflation Elekta shares dropped as much as 16%, the most since July 2025, after the Swedish medical technology firm reported sales and orders for the fourth quarter that disappointed analysts A gauge for Asian stocks snapped its longest winning streak since February: Asian equities retreated from a record, ending a five-day winning streak, as investors assessed conflicting signals from the US and Iran on prospects for a deal to end the war. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.9%, the most since May 15. Most equity benchmarks in the region were in the red, with the Hang Seng Index falling nearly 2%. Taiwan’s Taiex Index turned negative after hitting an intra-day record earlier in the day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 5.3% in the past five sessions. Investor sentiment has turned cautious due to elevated energy prices and the risk of renewed inflation, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut. President Donald Trump said he was “not satisfied” in negotiations with Iran, dampening expectations for an imminent breakthrough in the Middle East conflict. Elsewhere in Asia, Chinese semiconductor stocks extend gains as Huawei’s chip breakthrough continues to buoy market sentiment. Markets in India and Indonesia are closed for holidays. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is edging higher for a third straight day while the Japanese yen is the best performing G-10 currency, rising a few pips against the greenback. GBP/USD declines 0.2% to 1.3405, down a third day In rates, treasury futures are off session lows in early US session, but remain under pressure with yields 1.5bp-3bp cheaper across a flatter curve. Front-end tenors lead the selloff with yields 3bp cheaper on the day after climbing nearly 5bp; WTI crude futures remain 2.7% higher after rising as much as 3.8%. 10-year TSY near 4.5% is 1.6bp higher, slightly underperforming bunds and gilts in the sector. Gains in oil weigh after renewed attacks in the Persian Gulf erode expectations of a peace accord. New Zealand’s bonds pared losses after the government announced a plan to reduce bond issuance in the coming years. Focal points of US session include 7-year note auction at 1pm New York time and economic data including PCE price indexes and 1Q GDP revision. This week’s Treasury auctions conclude with $44 billion 7-year note at 1pm New York time, following solid results for 2- and 5-year note sales. WI 7-year yield near 4.34% is about 16.5bp cheaper than last month’s, which tailed by 0.5bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far, however at least one issuer stood down Wednesday, when 12 offerings totaling $21.3 billion were priced, led by Goldman Sachs’ $9b four-part transaction. Issuers paid about 3bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.7 times covered. In commodities, Brent crude futures for July are up 3% near $97 a barrel having topped $98 earlier after renewed attacks in the Persian Gulf fueled doubts over whether an end to the Iran war is imminent. Precious metals and Bitcoin are declining. Today's economic data slate includes April personal income/spending (with PCE price indexes), weekly jobless claims, April durable goods orders, 1Q GDP revision (all at 8:30am) and April new home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Williams (8:55am), Musalem (10:15am, 1:10pm) and Barkin (3pm). Market Snapshot Top Overnight News The US struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week and Kuwait said it responded to missile and drone threats. Iran targeted the US base where the strikes originated, state-run Press TV reported. BBG A US oil tanker intended to cross the Strait of Hormuz by turning off radar system, but IRGC Navy fired at it and forced it to turn back, while US army fired into Bandar Abbas but caused no damage. This was the cause of the earlier reported explosions. No casualties or damages were caused by the US, which fired at a scorched-earth area. Separately, Iran's Navy forced four vessels to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz by firing warning shots: Tasnim China's central bank has instructed banks to boost lending this month, people with knowledge of the matter said, underscoring Beijing's continued efforts to support an economy squeezed by higher energy costs ‌and stubbornly weak domestic demand. RTRS Hong Kong plans to launch a gold-clearing system by July, giving it a first-mover advantage over rival Singapore, which has announced similar plans without a timeline. BBG South Korea’s central bank held rates steady at its first meeting under Gov. Shin Hyun-song, though it signaled tighter policy ahead as it raised its forecasts for economic growth and inflation. WSJ Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook said she is prepared to raise interest rates if disinflation does not appear in a timely manner. For now, the right course of action is to hold rates steady, but risks still remain tilted toward higher inflation. WSJ Goolsbee warned that the persistent combination of energy shocks and stubborn inflation could push the U.S. economy into a “stagflationary” direction characterized by a simultaneous rise in unemployment and price growth. WSJ South Africa’s central bank is set to raise borrowing costs for the first time in three years today, with the benchmark interest rate forecast to increase to 7%. BBG The ECB’s Philip Lane said ripple effects of the Iran war, such as on the labor market, will occupy policymakers even after the conflict is resolved. BBG Amazon Web Services has signed up cloud storage company Snowflake as its latest chips customer, as the proliferation of artificial intelligence agents continues to drive high levels of demand for computing hardware. SNOW plans to pay $6 billion over the next five years for access to Amazon’s Graviton chips inside AWS data centers. SNOW +35% premkt on strong outlook from last night’s print. WSJ "The momentum factor has historically stalled around May and July but seen a significant ramp up in June with the factor actually being the highest performing seasonally in the month. We do think the move higher came early this year, and while we still think there is a potential for upside in the leaders, we are more concerned with unwind risk and squeezes in the laggards at the current moment": Goldman Iran conflict news US official said US military carried out new strikes on an Iranian military site and shot down multiple Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime in the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC said it targeted the US air base in response to the US aggression earlier near Bandar Abbas Airport, according to Tasnim. said:. Any further US attacks would trigger a more decisive response. Washington bears responsibility for consequences. Military source tells Tasnim that hours ago, a US oil tanker intended to cross the Strait of Hormuz by turning off radar system, but IRGC Navy fired at it and forced it to turn back, while US army fired into Bandar Abbas but caused no damage. This was the cause of the earlier reported explosions. No casualties or damages were caused by the US, which fired at a scorched-earth area. Iran's Navy forced four vessels to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz by firing warning shots, according to Tasnim. Sound of three explosions heard from the east of Bandar Abbas, Iran, with exact location and source of the sounds still unclear, while air defences were activated for a few minutes, according to Fars News Agency. "Hearing the sound of multiple explosions in Kuwait", ISNA reported, "Kuwait’s official news agency stated that air defense systems are currently countering missile and drone attacks" [likely referring to earlier reported]. Air raid sirens sounding in Kuwait, while Kuwaiti Army said air defense intercept hostile missile and drone attacks, according to Al Hadath. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Gulf Strait Authority action targets Hormuz tolls, adds the Treasury is maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. Iranian National Security Council Official Bagheri said Iran’s assets must be released unconditionally, Tasnim reported. US issues fresh Iran-related sanctions by adding Persian Gulf Strait Authority to its SDN list. US has carried out a defence operation in Bandar Abbas, Iran, according to Faytuks Network citing an official that said, “the US will act to safeguard its regional interests, and this does not affect the ceasefire”. Iran Supreme National Security Council Deputy Secretary Baqeri met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, and discuss a number of important issues on the current international agenda with focus on the situation around Iran's nuclear program. Via IRNA/Telegram. Deputy Head of Public Relations for the IRGC Aerospace Force, Ali Naderi, said on Wednesday If enemies launch military action again, the Islamic Republic's response will be different from anything seen so far. said: "...they will face a new image of Iran". Head of Iranian Parliament National Security Committee said Iran will not be pushed back by US President Trump's rhetoric from its red lines: rights to enrich uranium and its possession, authority over the Strait of Hormuz and removal of sanctions. IRIB reporter said no signs of an explosion have been seen in Bandar Abbas, while some people have heard the sound of this explosion and none of the officials concerned about the matter have issued any official statement. Axios reported that US military had shot down 4 Iranian drones targeting ships and an Iranian drone launcher on the ground. Israeli fighter jets carry out attack on the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon, according to Mehr News Agency. Hamas spokesperson said the Gaza ceasefire agreement faces risk of collapse due to occupation's crimes and ongoing violations, Al Jazeera reported. IDF said it's striking Hezbollah infrastructure in the area of Tyre in southern Lebanon. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were pressured amid a flare-up of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the US conducted another defensive operation in which it attacked a launch site and shot down drones after they posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime in the Strait of Hormuz, while the IRGC said it responded by attacking the US base where the US aggression originated from. ASX 200 retreated amid the geopolitical escalation and with sentiment not helped by mixed data in which capex topped estimates, but household spending disappointed. Nikkei 225 was initially choppy but ultimately retreated amid the rebound in oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative but to varying degrees, with the Hong Kong benchmark underperforming following recent earnings and mixed tech fortunes. Top Asian News S&P affirms Hong Kong at AA+, outlook stable. Japan's ruling party proposes allowing the government to issue bridging bonds to fund certain expenditures, which can be excluded from debt-to-GDP ratio and primary balance calculations. Australia's APRA maintained current macroprudential policy setting following a review. Japan considers bridging bonds for growth investments, according to Nikkei. Korea's NPS has lifted its domestic stock weight target to 20.8% (prev. 14.9%), Bloomberg reports European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) are broadly lower this morning as markets digest the recent flare-up between the US and Iran. In brief, the US struck Iranian military bases, whilst the IRGC responded with its own attacks on US air bases. Furthermore, Iran’s Navy stated it forced four vessels to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz by firing warning shots. Aside from these flare-up, updates since have been lacking – with markets tentatively waiting for whether this round of strikes will lead to further escalation. As a reminder, Iran has taken the position that further strikes on its land will lead to a war outside of the region. European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Tech leads, followed closely by Energy, whilst Media and Healthcare lag. Tech appears to be rebounding from recent losses, with fundamental drivers lacking, despite the higher yield environment; action potentially driven by post-earnings strength in Snowflake, whilst Marvell’s headline metrics were strong. US equity futures (ES -0.1% NQ -0.3% RTY -0.3%) are in the red this morning, following the action seen in APAC/European trade. The day ahead is packed with key US data, including US PCE (Apr), GDP 2nd estimate and jobless claims. Previewing PCE in brief, following hotter than expected CPI and PPI reports, analysts updated econometric models point to April core PCE inflation of between +0.3-0.4% M/M (prev. +0.3%). In terms of pre-market movers: HP (-2.2%, strong headline metrics, though downgraded its FY outlook), Marvell (-1.5%, headline metrics beat and provided upbeat outlook; though highlighted supply chain constraints), Snowflake (+35%, secures a USD 6bln Amazon deal). Top European News Italian Consumer Confidence (May) 93.4 (Prev. 90.8). Italian Business Confidence (May) 87.9 (Prev. 87.9). Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator (May) 99.3 (Prev. 99.0). Swedish Consumer Inflation Expectations (May) 5.9% (Prev. 6.8%). Swedish Consumer Confidence (May) 92.4 (Prev. 91.5). Swedish Business Confidence (May) 103.3 (Prev. 103.3). Swedish Balance of Trade (Apr) -7.30B (Prev. 9.3B). Spanish Retail Sales MoM (Apr) M/M -1.5% (Prev. 1.2%). Spanish Retail Sales YoY (Apr) Y/Y 0.8% (Prev. 4.1%). FX G10s are broadly lower against the Buck with the Dollar Index +0.1% as oil prices rebound on US and Iran exchanging fire. General sour sentiment across assets sees high-beta underperform despite central bank pricing moves re. Antipodeans on Wednesday, while cyclicals are also weaker. JPY is a touch firmer against the USD, and trades around 159.30. The Buck marks its third consecutive session of gains and marked a fresh May high amid the US-Iran flare-up (See Iranian War Day 90 analysis on headline feed). The Dollar index has moved further away from significant DMAs, which are now well below and with no sign of an immediate resolution and repricing of G10 rates, with oil far from recent highs and Waller shifting hawkish, the recent drivers. Today’s driver will be the PCE and GDP reports, alongside Fed speak from Williams, Musalem and Barkin. AUD is the weakest currency in the G10 space on the day amid the general geopolitical risk tone, lower-than-expected Aussie inflation data and the popular carry trade against NZD vulnerable to a Hawkish RBNZ this week. On Wednesday, headlines pointed out that the Antipodean cross marked the largest one-day decline since 2016. The cross found some buyers just above 1.2050, though not enough to halt its declines. AUD/NZD -0.1% on the day. MUFG writes “...with the pre-emptive nature of the RBA policy approach allowing a longer period of pause, a further extension lower in AUD/NZD seems likely.” EUR is a touch lower against a stronger Buck with firmer energy benchmarks hurting the single currency. Remains a lack of EZ-specific newsflow as focus exclusively lies on geopolitics, which drives the Greenback. 1.16 remains supported for now, where it found buyers below overnight. ING highlights risks “in our view, should the US-Iran stalemate continue. We still see some risks of a 1.150 test before a rebound, but intraday trading remains highly headline-dependent.” Central Banks Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said energy inflation has been more persistent than expected and warns that Asia faced an old-style stagflation shock. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) said focus remains on 2% inflation target and noted US labour market is very resilient to the energy shock. Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said labour market is in decent shape, consumer prices remain too high, and inflation remains the top priority. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) said has not prejudged outcome of June FOMC meeting and monetary policy is well positioned to respond to the economy. said:. Is firmly committed to getting inflation back to 2%. Risks around inflation outlook are tilted to upside. Expects inflation to wane later this year on fading tariff, energy hits. Energy shock downside risk to growth, upside risk to inflation. Recent US economic activity has been solid. Labour market stable with risks tilted toward downside. US is not immune to oil-related energy shocks. Fed's Cook (voter) said she is atuned to inflation expectations, also watching oil. Would be problematic if oil prices move in the wrong direction. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said expects the BoJ to closely coordinate with the government, adds cabinet is in agreement specific monetary policy means are left to the BoJ. said:. Hope the BoJ will conduct appropriate monetary policy to achieve 2% price targets stably, sustainably and rising wages. There is nothing she can add regarding the PM's meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda beyond what Governor Ueda revealed after the meeting. BoJ Governor Ueda said we have seen supply shocks in food and energy, which even if temporary, can lift the overall inflation rate because of their cumulative impact. ECB President Lagarde speaks on "When It Matters Most: Upholding Independence in Challenging Times". ECB's Lane said even if initial energy shock starts to reverse, the second round will be with us for a while. said: Even if there is some kind of resolution to the Iran war, conflict has gone on for so long, there may be repositioning in terms of optimal diversification strategy. RBNZ Governor Breman said the board considers that inflation pressures will intensify in the future and the cash rate needs to be raised further. RBNZ Governor Breman said the weak labour market will suppress wage growth, adds certain parts of the New Zealand economy remain in good shape including agriculture and parts of manufacturing. said it will take some time to see the full effect of higher oil prices across wider sectors. China's PBoC is to reportedly guide banks to boost May lending amid weak credit issuance, sources suggest. BoK keeps 7-day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected. BoK Governor Shin said we will act decisively to stem any herd-like behaviours in the FX market, adds there may be technical differences within board members about when to hike, but board members agree the direction should be tightening. BoK Governor Shin said Middle East war uncertainty persists and oil stability is to take time to return, adds local growth expansion driven by semiconductor boom. BoK said board members Ryoo and Chang dissented to Thursday's rate decision and called for a rate hike. Fixed Income A softer start to the day for fixed benchmarks, as the energy space reacts to renewed strikes from both the US and Iran. Bunds and USTs hit lows overnight, with downside of c. 45 and 12 ticks respectively. Since, the space has lifted off worst levels as the intensity of newsflow slows and energy eases from best. However, the space remains in the red heading into a relatively busy session, particularly in the US. Bunds hit a 125.53 low overnight, reacting to the US and Iran action, and also as the language from US President Trump regarding Oman got greater attention. The intensity of newsflow has since slowed, and Bunds have managed to lift off lows but remain in the red by a handful of ticks. Today's European docket has several ECB officials and the April Minutes. From the officials, any remarks which decrease/increase the odds of a June move will, of course, be eyed. Similarly, from the Minutes, insight into how broad the discussion was around tightening and while the decision was unanimous for a hold, did any member(s) initially express a preference for taking action at that point. Gilts gapped lower by 35 ticks, taking out the trough from Tuesday at 87.99 and as such notching a new WTD low. Though, one that remains comfortably clear of last week's 84.96 contract base. For the UK newsflow remains relatively light as we count down to the mid-June by-election, after which the Labour leadership contest will step up a gear, irrespective of the result. USTs in-fitting with Bunds. Notched a 109-17+ base overnight, and has lifted a 109-29 high, to unchanged on the session. The US docket ahead is packed with multiple Fed officials, whose remarks will continue to be scrutinised for insight into what the outcome of the first meeting under Warsh will be. Additionally, April's PCE is seen ticking higher to 3.8% Y/Y (prev. 3.5%), but moderating to 0.5% M/M (prev. 0.7%). UK sells GBP 1bln 0.375% 2030 Gilt via tender: b/c 4.19x (prev. 2.97x), average yield 4.277% (prev. 3.796%). Italy sells EUR 7.25bln vs exp. EUR 6-7.25bln 3.15% 2031, 3.80% 2036, 2.25% 2036 BTP and EUR 3.75bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.75bln 3.237% 2036, 3.237% 2035 CCTeu. Commodities Overnight, the main geopolitical update has been the US-Iran flare-up. The US carried out new strikes near Bandar Abbas after accusing Iran of threatening maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran responded with strikes on a US air base and claimed it forced vessels, including a US-linked tanker, to turn back in Hormuz. Air raid sirens sounded in Kuwait as Kuwaiti air defences intercepted hostile missiles and drones. Despite this, efforts for negotiations are seemingly continuing. As a reminder, the US rebuffed the unofficial MoU released by Iranian State Media (which suggested Iran and Oman are to manage the Strait of Hormuz). Russia's Transneft plans to expand capacity of Espo oil pipeline, RIA reported; oil shipments for export via the Transneft system in 2026 will be comparable to the 2025 level. WTI Jul and Brent Aug futures rose to highs of around USD 92.50/bbl and USD 96.00/bbl, respectively, amid the skirmish. Prices have since waned off highs back to around USD 90.75/bbl and USD 94.50/bbl respectively amid a lack of further attacks and with nothing to suggest negotiations are not still intact. Dutch TTF similarly rose above EUR 48/MWh before settling around EUR 47.50/MWh at the time of writing, +2.5% intraday. Spot gold and silver are softer but off lows, in tandem with price action across energy. Spot gold briefly dipped under its 200 DMA (USD 4,394/oz) and trades towards the lower end of a USD 4,366-4,462.58/oz range. Traders may be looking ahead to the US PCE metrics as a source of impetus. Following hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports, analysts’ updated econometric models now point to April core PCE inflation of +0.3-0.4% M/M, up from the prior +0.3%. That being said, a major geopolitical update could overshadow the data in this fluid environment. Base metals are mostly softer, and to varying degrees, with price action somewhat muted given the lack of macro newsflow. Overnight, copper extended declines amid the downbeat mood in Asia following reports of the US and Iran's retaliatory strikes, but clambered off its worst levels since. 3M LME copper resides towards the top end of a USD 13,465.80- 13,595.97/t range. Iran has restored production at the South Pars industrial hub to its pre-war capacity following an intensive repair operation, according to PressTV. US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.8mln (exp. -4.4mln), Distillates +11.0mln (exp. -2.0mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -2.9mln), Cushing -2.9mln. Trade/Tariffs China's MOFCOM said it is negotiating with the EU within the WTO over EU steel curbs; adds China-EU economic relations are mutually beneficial. EU is to broaden import quotas and tariffs against China, according to the bloc's industry commissioner, cited by FT. Geopolitics (ex Iran) Russia's Transneft plans to expand capacity of Espo oil pipeline, RIA reported; oil shipments for export via the Transneft system in 2026 will be comparable to the 2025 level. Russian intelligence chief said NATO is making preparations for a large-scale conflict on the eastern border, Sky News Arabia reported. Ukrainian military said it has attacked Russia's Tuapse oil refinery (240k BPD). EU Foreign Affairs Policy Chief Kallas said Russia is on the back foot on the battle field, adds should not walk in Russia's trap concerning discussions who should be at the negotiating table and it should be about substance. Ukraine President Zelensky submits a draft law on ratification of loan agreement between the Ukraine and EU, according to the Ukraine Parliament website. North Korea's Foreign Ministry states that the country will never denuclearise, while it accused US-led Quad of maintaining hostile stance towards Pyongyang and other regional nations, according to KCNA. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: Apr Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6% 8:30 am: Apr Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.9% 8:30 am: Apr PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 3.5% 8:30 am: Apr Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% 8:30 am: Apr Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.2% 8:30 am: May 23 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210.5k, prior 209k 8:30 am: May 16 Continuing Claims, est. 1784k, prior 1782k 8:30 am: Apr P Durable Goods Orders, est. 4%, prior 0.8% 8:30 am: Apr P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 0.9% 8:30 am: 1Q S GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2%, prior 2% 8:30 am: 1Q S Personal Consumption, est. 1.6%, prior 1.6% 8:30 am: 1Q S GDP Price Index, est. 3.6%, prior 3.6% 8:30 am: 1Q S Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3% 10:00 am: Apr New Home Sales, est. 660.09k, prior 682k Central Bank speakers 8:55 am: Fed’s Williams Speaks at Reykjavík Economic Conference 10:15 am:Fed’s Musalem Speaks in Reykjavik 1:10 pm: Fed’s Musalem Appears on Bloomberg TV 3:00 pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Moderrated Discussion DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap One skill required in this job at the moment is adaptability as the tone has all changed in the last couple of hours with Oil back up and equities down after the US carried out another series of defensive strikes and imposed sanctions preventing Iran from profiting from Strait of Hormuz traffic. According to a US official they shot down some Iranian drones fired at a commercial ship and also struck an Iranian drone launching site near the strait. They claim the ceasefire still holds with the Irainian's claiming they targeted a US airbase in retaliation. This has led to Brent rallying +3.92% this morning to $97.99/bbl after falling -5.31% yesterday and to a one-month low of $94.29/bbl. Equity markets are lower across the board after a decent day yesterday. It's been a busy 24 hours for headlines on the war. The main one yesterday came from Iran’s state TV, who reported on an unofficial draft for an interim peace deal. According to them, this proposal would see maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal within a month, while the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports. So initially, there was a clear rally as hopes grew that the Strait would reopen. However, we then heard from the White House later on, who said this report was a “complete fabrication”, which dampened hopes for an imminent deal. And Trump also said in a PBS interview that Iran wouldn’t get sanctions relief for giving up their highly enriched uranium. Just after Europe closed Trump said that he was "not satisfied" with the current state of negotiations and that "Maybe we have to go back and finish it". And shortly after the US close, we heard a senior Iranian parliamentarian push back on Trump’s rhetoric, saying it would not deter Iran from its “red lines” on enriched uranium, authority over the Strait of Hormuz, and the removal of sanctions. Given the rally in Oil, US Treasury yields are back up 4 to 4.5bps across the curve this morning with the 10yr yield at 4.53% as I type after a 5-day rally. S&P (-0.37%) and Nasdaq (-0.80%) futures are lower after the cash markets in yesterday's session hit all time highs at the same time, along with the DOW, for the first time in 2026. In Asia the KOSPI (-3.61%) is the largest underperformer with the Hang Seng (-2.12%) also burdened by weakness in technology shares, along with the Nikkei (-1.34%). The S&P/ASX 200 (-1.59%) is also weak. Mainland Chinese stocks are down less than a percent. The session yesterday went pretty well with the decline in oil prices meaning that concerns about inflation eased, with investors pricing out the chance of aggressive rate hikes this year. We saw that in several ways, but the US 1yr inflation swap (-2.2bps) hit a two-month low of 3.03%, and the Euro 1yr inflation swap (-9.3bps) also fell to 3.36%. So that pushed central bank pricing in a slightly more dovish direction, with the probability of a Fed rate hike by December down to 62% by the close, having been at 66% the previous day. Similarly at the ECB, the amount of hikes priced by December was also down to 58bps by the close, down –2.1bps from the previous day. These are all giving up some of these gains this morning. We have US core PCE to look forward to today which is an important number. This comes after some hawkish comment from Fed Governor Cook late in the US session, who said she was “attuned to the risk that elevated inflation will become embedded” and “prepared to raise rates, if the expected disinflation does not appear in a timely manner”. Before this morning's sell-off, equities saw a mixed performance yesterday as investors grappled with the various headlines. In the US, the S&P 500 (+0.02%) and Nasdaq (+0.07%) narrowly posted new record highs, while the Mag-7 (+0.92%) outperformed. Those gains came despite the Philly semiconductor index retreating (-1.36%) and decliners outnumbering advancers in the S&P for a second session running. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.03%) closed within 1% of its record high from February, with gains for the FTSE 100 (+0.13%) and the CAC 40 (+0.43%) outweighing a decline for FTSEMIB (-0.64%). European Stoxx futures are down -1.3% this morning as I type in a big reversal for this time of day. Otherwise yesterday, there wasn’t much data, although a few releases from the US were generally positive. For example, the ADP’s weekly report of private payrolls showed a healthy increase of 35,750 per week in the four weeks ending May 9. Then shortly after, we also found out that the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index was up to a 4-year high of 13 in May (vs. 4 expected). So overall, the numbers cemented the picture of ongoing resilience in the US economy. Looking at the day ahead, and US data releases include the PCE inflation for April, weekly initial jobless claims, and the second estimate of Q1 GDP, Otherwise, Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Lane, Cipollone and Schnabel, the Fed’s Williams, Musalem and Barkin, and the BoE’s Breeden. We’ll also get the ECB’s account of their April meeting. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 08:14

Sources

Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

Related events

Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US

○ 1 source

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US This is ‘the first step in permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran’, said US Vice-President J.D. Vance Tehran has agreed to invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country, US Vice-President J.

D. Vance said on Monday, after a first round of US-Iran talks towards ending the Middle East war. “The Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country,” Vance told reporters at Switzerland’s isolated Burgenstock resort, where his talks with Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf opened on Sunday.

“That is a major milestone for the American people and the first step in permanently denuclearising or permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran,” he said. The IAEA estimates that Iran had 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60 per cent – close to the level needed for a bomb.

Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA after Israel and the US launched a previous wave of attacks in June 2025, and inspectors have not seen the material since.

Agence France-Presse

Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxyEUChina

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

○ 1 source

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

Futures are modestly lower coming off the US holiday weekend, after equities finished higher last week with both Dow and Russell clocking new ATHs and SPX finishing in the green for the 11th time in the last 12 weeks. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures edged down 0.1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts are higher by 0.1% with chips outperforming as usual while hyperscalers, aka "check payers" down as all Mag 7 are lower with TSLA (-1.4%) and GOOGL (-1.6%; Google’s DeepMind VP John Jumper is leaving the company to join Anthropic) being the biggest laggards. Overseas, Asian markets mostly higher overnight with China and Japan the big gainers, up over 1.5%. European markets higher, up ~0.3%. Big development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Donald Trump again threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel, & US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In the UK, PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. Bond yields are 2-4bp higher, while the USD is largely unchanged. WTI crude fell $-0.58 to $75.27 reversing all earlier gains while Brent traded around $79. Gold and silver are higher as is bitcoin. There is little on the corporate calendar and scant macro data, leaving traders with little direction until Micron’s earnings due Wednesday and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Thursday take center stage. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

In premarket trading, SpaceX shares slid more than 5% in premarket trading, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. Meanwhile, the semi meltup continues: chipmakers including Intel rallied. Getty Images soared more than 300% after inking a display partnership with ChatGPT owner OpenAI. Here are the notable premarket movers:

Alphabet (GOOGL) -1.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -1.3%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.9%, Apple (AAPL) -0.8%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.4% Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) climbs 48% after AbbVie agreed to buy the company for $10.9 billion to bolster its anti-inflammatory portfolio amid growing competition for its best-selling drug. Arcosa (ACA) gains 7% after CRH said it has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of the provider of building materials in an all-cash transaction for $150 per share. Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) gains 32% after announcing positive topline results from a Phase 3 study evaluating a single dose of an orally disintegrating tablet in adults with major depressive disorder. Fervo Energy (FRVO) gains 8% after the geothermal-energy company agreed with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Nvidia to develop a digital twin platform for Enhanced Geothermal Systems technology. Getty Images (GETY) soars 156% after the company announced a display partnership With OpenAI. Regenxbio (RGNX) climbs 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the FDA has agreed to reverse the rejection of the firm’s rare-disease drug. SpaceX (SPCX) is down 5%, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. A peppering of M&A and ECM news is spicing up an otherwise quiet Monday morning. Budget airline EasyJet has rejected three offers by US private credit giant Castlelake. AbbVie is closing in on a nearly $11 billion deal to buy inflammatory disease drug developer Apogee Therapeutics, according to the FT, which also reports that building materials group Arcosa could be close to a takeout by larger rival CRH. SpaceX kicked off its debut US dollar high-grade bond offering expected to be at least $25 billion.

The big geopolitical development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Oil traders took comfort from evidence of progress in Middle East talks even as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran if Hezbollah militants continue to attack Israel. Vance said the warring sides set up a mechanism to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, while Iran agreed to invite nuclear inspectors.

“Even during the midst of the conflict in the Middle East, equities still priced a positive outcome,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “It seems logical that markets don’t rally too hard on something which they had already priced to a fair degree.”

Traders also followed the latest developments in UK politics as Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. The departure of Starmer is putting Britain on course for its seventh premier in a decade and paving the way for Andy Burnham to replace him. The former mayor of Manchester announced his candidacy hours after Starmer’s resignation and received the backing of Wes Streeting, a potential rival. Starmer said nominations for a new Labour leader will open July 9 and that a contest will be finalized by Sept. 1. The question for investors is about the impact on the UK’s finances if Burnham were to become prime minister. A slew of all-but-forgotten niche option positions betting on an oil glut are coming back into play as crude cools.

“Markets would be watching for Burnham’s pick of Chancellor,” wrote Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “The fear is that Burnham’s policies are left-leaning and if the new chancellor is not credible, it would raise concerns over deficits and borrowing.”

The AI trade still works and investors should keep it, say Goldman Sachs traders in charge of thematic investing, baskets and equity structuring.

In geopolitics, China has imposed export controls against US rare earth firms, in response to the Pentagon’s accusations against some of China’s biggest companies supporting the Chinese military.

Meanwhile, Trump’s administration is rolling out new tools with the same protectionist goals after the Supreme Court ruled his sweeping global tariffs to be illegal. The rising cost of living, and corruption, are shaping up to be major campaign battlefronts in races that will determine control of the US Congress.

Bond traders, recently forced to reposition for the possibility of higher interest rates ahead, are looking to Thursday’s US personal consumption expenditures price index for a read on whether the market’s hawkish stance is warranted. Forecasters expect the index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, to show acceleration on both a monthly and year-over-year basis in May. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is due to speak later on Monday. Bloomberg Economics’ head Anna Wong expects a hot PCE reading will likely reinforce the hawkish tilt by the Fed at its June meeting.

Ahead of Micron’s earnings, a leveraged ETF linked to rival SK Hynix is lifting an option cap. Rising leverage is also showing up in FINRA’s margin debt statistics, and the Roundhill DRAM ETF has recorded 19 straight days of inflows and AUM surpassed $20 billion. Micron’s fiscal 3Q revenue may exceed consensus by about 13% and guidance by 18%, notes BI.

European stocks struggled to derive much benefit with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1%, with construction and media stocks leading declines, while technology and energy shares are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

Infineon shares rise as much as 5.3%, after CFO Sven Schneider maintained his bullish stance on the chipmaker’s growth over the next few years, while Bernstein increased its price target for the stock EasyJet shares rise as much as 5.4% to the highest level in almost a year after the British budget carrier rejected a third takeover proposal from US investment firm Castlelake BioArctic jumps as much as 10%, the most in more than four months, after the Swedish biopharma company signed a research and collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly for its BrainTransporter technology LISI gains as much as 7.6%, reaching a record high, as Berenberg initiates on the component maker with a buy rating, citing entrenched positions in automotive and aerospace fasteners Sanofi shares slip as much as 2.1%, making them the biggest laggard by index points in the Stoxx 600’s healthcare subgroup on Monday morning Babcock shares fall as much as 5.7%, the most since February, as the defense contractor posts full-year results UBS shares are slide as much as 0.6%, falling for a second straight session after being downgraded at Zuercher Kantonalbank on valuation grounds, with the Swiss bank having hit a fresh 2008-high last Thursday Asian stocks surged to a record as chipmakers and other artificial intelligence-linked firms rallied amid optimism surrounding US-Iran peace talks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, with information technology the top performing sector. Markets in Taiwan, mainland China and Japan led regional gains. Continued interest in AI and semiconductor plays drove Taiwan’s benchmark to a record high. South Korea’s memory maker SK Hynix also rose to an all-time high on expectations over its planned ADR listing, helping to erase earlier losses in the Kospi gauge. Meanwhile, equities in Hong Kong underperformed, as weak consumption data weighed on sentiment and investors chased the AI rally elsewhere. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in the city was headed for a bear market before trimming some losses.

“We continue seeing liquidities leaving ‘old Techs’ in Hong Kong including Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu to chase AI-related stocks in Japan, Korea and Taiwan,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian.

In FX, the pound is down a handful of pips near its year-to-date low. The yen is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.3% against the greenback.

In rates, treasuries decline, pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.48% as trading resumes after Friday’s US cash-market holiday. US yields are 2bp-4bp higher on the day with losses led by front-end tenors, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s by 0.5bp and 1.5bp respectively. 10-year around 4.48% is cheaper by 3bp with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 5bp and 6.5bp. European bonds outperform led by gilts after Wes Streeting backed Andy Burnham to be new UK Prime Minister, removing a key uncertainty after Keir Starmer’s resignation. Oil trades lower on signs of diplomatic headway between the US and Iran. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few items so far. Dealers forecast about $50 billion of US investment-grade bond sales this week, likely to include a jumbo bond offering from SpaceX. Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with $69 billion 2-year notes, followed by 5- and 7-year note sales Wednesday and Thursday

In commodities, Brent crude futures fall 1.6% after Iran said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the US. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% near session lows after US Vice President Vance says Hormuz is open and talks with Iran have made progress. Precious metals advance, with spot silver rising 2%.

US event calendar: US economic data calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

The U.S. and Iran made progress during talks in Switzerland on Monday toward reaching a final deal within 60 days, including the agreement to establish a committee and a mechanism to end hostilities in Lebanon. CNBC The US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. BBG UK PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation and outlined plans for a successor to take office by September. The move clears the way for Andy Burnham to become Britain’s seventh PM in a decade. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting said he backed Burnham to become PM. The pound hovered near its weakest level of the year while gilts were little changed. BBG China announced on Monday that it will add 10 American firms to its export control list, including two rare earth firms, while also restricting 46 US firms from government procurement, signalling it would respond to Washington’s recent expansion of a military blacklist, even amid a broader stabilization of bilateral ties. SCMP South Korea’s exports jumped again in early June, thanks to AI fueling a sustained boom in the semiconductor sector. BBG Chevron signed a 20-year deal with Microsoft to supply natural-gas fired power to a planned West Texas data center that may become one of the largest in the US. BBG Semis are on pace to finish as the most net bought global subsector for a second straight year, with net allocations now at record highs. GS Prime Brokerage Major investors warned that Fed Chair Warsh’s push to axe the Fed’s guidance on the direction of monetary policy could increase volatility in the Treasury market and drive borrowing costs higher: FT. Hong Kong is in talks with Chinese authorities to expand cross-border investment channels and grant mainland buyers access to local IPOs. BBG Colombia elected Trump ally Abelardo de la Espriella president by a razor-thin margin. The preliminary result was immediately challenged by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, who backed rival candidate Senator Iván Cepeda. BBG US Secretary of State Rubio congratulates Colombia's presidential candidate De la Espriella who leads against leftist rival Cepeda following the Colombian election. Democrats are set to make corruption a major campaign battlefront in the midterms as polling suggests voters are eager to see lawmakers take on conflicts of interest and self-enrichment by leaders. BBG US Southern Command announces that Task Force Southern Spear has conducted a strike on a vessel operated by designated terrorist organisations in the Caribbean. US Secretary of State Rubio plans trip to the Middle East next week: Kuwait, UAE and Bahrain at the moment: Axios US President Trump told Axios that he doesn’t see Anthropic PBC as a national security threat, despite his administration recently taking steps to cut off foreign access to the tech company’s most advanced AI models. Furthermore, Trump said that it was seen as a threat last week, but relations have improved since with the AI giant. US Department of Agriculture announced three new cases of screwworm to take the total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iran Headlines: Latest News

US and Iran talks opened in Switzerland on Sunday after US VP Vance arrived in Switzerland and the Iranian delegation led by chief negotiator Ghalibaf, which included Foreign Minister Araghchi, arrived on Saturday, while Pakistan’s Premier Sharif and military chief Munir travelled to Switzerland to join the US-Iran talks. Iran's delegation reportedly left the negotiation site in protest against statements by US President Trump, while Fars also reported that Iran halted talks with the US after Trump threatened strikes over Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon. Iran said Trump’s threat is a blatant violation of the MoU and halted talks in Switzerland, while it is reviewing a response to Trump’s threats. However, sources cited by Al Hadath later stated that the Iranian delegation had not left the negotiation headquarters at the Burgenstock resort and the Iranian delegation head discussed a joint statement draft with mediators. US President Trump threatened to resume bombing and take over the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is not reached, while Trump said the US may take tolls if it has to and that he has a 60-day option, in which he can do whatever after it. Trump stated he spoke with Iranian officials and used expletive language in the call with Iranian officials on Hormuz, as well as threatened that they won’t have a country if Hormuz is closed, according to Fox. US President Trump posted that Iran must immediately stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble, or else the US would hit Iran very hard again, “just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Trump separately commented that there will be no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, unless they are imposed by the US. UKMTO reported an incident in which a cargo vessel was approached by a craft with six armed persons onboard 92 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Mukalla in the Gulf of Aden. Israeli army chief said the Lebanon ceasefire is fragile and forces remain ready for combat. Israeli military convoy reportedly entered southern Syria’s Quneitra region, near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Qatar and Pakistan issue joint statement on conclusion of US-Iran talks in Switzerland, while Qatar said first session of the US-Iran high level talks has concluded and that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere. said:. Technical talks are to continue for remainder of the week. US and Iran agreed to de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Encouraging progress has been made, including creation of a mechanism for further technical talks. Parties agree to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. High-level committee agrees on roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days. "The negotiations of the main Iranian delegation in Switzerland have ended, however, experts are still in Switzerland and are following up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding", Tasnim reported citing sources. Iranian negotiating team member said executive procedures about the release of Iranian frozen funds have taken place with the Qatari delegation and that a draft has been finalised regarding waivers of Iranian oil sanctions, which will be issued soon, although negotiations about other subjects will not take place if the war does not end in Lebanon. "No negotiations have taken place on the nuclear file so far", Tasnim reported citing a source. US diplomat said talks included robust discussions on a nuclear deal and enforcing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, while talks also involved clarifying the messaging on the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, a US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, and that mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Pakistani Army Chief said negotiating parties reached success stage, according to Al Arabiya. US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, adds mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Sources cited by Al Arabiya said an anticipated statement will be issued by the Iranian and American negotiators and the mediators. Sources cited by Al Hadath stated that the Iranian delegation has not left the negotiation headquarters at the Bürgenstock resort and Iranian delegation head discusses joint statement draft with mediators. Tasnim reported Iranian delegation refused to return to negotiations but message exchanges continue through intermediaries. Iranian Commentary:

Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted Pakistani and Qatari mediation delivered major progress to end Lebanon War, oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran. Iran's Foreign Ministry said the technical team is to continue work, but negotiation delegation work has concluded, adds significant progress achieved in quadrilateral talks in Switzerland. Spokesman said groundwork for starting negotiations for the final agreement was discussed. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is working on safe passage mechanism for Hormuz and that Iran reported progress on oil sales and asset unfreezing, adds the war in all fronts, including Lebanon, must end. Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said the US is responsible for Israel's actions in Lebanon and Iran will hold the US accountable in the event of a threat against Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi to lead the technical team in Switzerland, Sky News Arabia reported. Iran resumed oil loading from Kharg Island after about a six-week halt, following the lifting of the US blockade of its ports. Lebanon/Israel:

Al Jadeed News cites Haaretz source stating the Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the Blue Line in Lebanon. Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the yellow line (buffer zone), Al Jazeera reported, citing Israel's Haaretz sources. Israeli Foreign Minister Saar told his New Zealand counterpart, "Israel will respect the ceasefire in Lebanon as long as it won’t be breached by Hezbollah.". Israeli political and security cabinet will convene on Thursday amid US-Iran talks, N12 reported. Israeli officials are dismissing reported of an agreement to withdraw from certain points in southern Lebanon, amid a lack of US pressure to do, Maariv's Barsky reported. Officials add, "because in Washington they understand the Israeli position: no partial withdrawal, no point-specific withdrawal, and no diplomatic 'gesture'.". And, "as long as the Hezbollah threat persists, there is no change in the deployment of forces and no intention to relinquish the security positions in southern Lebanon.". Lebanese presidency discussed the issue of consolidating the ceasefire in Lebanon, in a call with Qatari PM and US's Vance. Other:

Two South Korean vessels were said to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran signed a ceasefire MoU. Three India-linked supertankers re-emerged in the Gulf of Oman, which suggests an increase in traffic through the waterway. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with price action choppy following the recent conflicting headlines concerning US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, as the Iranian delegation was said to have walked out of talks following Trump's renewed threats to resume bombing them if a deal is not reached and if they don't stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. However, the reports that gradually followed were more encouraging as mediators stated that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere and technical talks are to continue for the remainder of the week, with the US and Iran agreeing to a de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Furthermore, the parties agreed to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation and on a roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days, while Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed that mediation delivered major progress to end the Lebanon war, as well as stated that oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade is lifted, frozen assets released, and that a major reconstruction and development plan was launched for Iran. ASX 200 struggled for direction as strength in gold miners and financials was offset by weakness in tech, energy and defensives. Nikkei 225 extended on record highs and rallied firmly above the 72,000 level as exporters benefited from a weaker currency and a pullback in oil, although the index has pared some of the gains, but comfortably remained the outperformer. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid a divergence between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, in which the latter took over the throne as South Korea’s largest Co. by market cap. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with sentiment not helped by trade frictions after China added 10 US firms to its export control list and announced to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities, while there was a lack of surprises from the announcement that the benchmark Loan Prime Rates were maintained for a 13th consecutive month.

Top Asian News

The Japanese Government is reportedly planning to deploy JPY 68tln in public and private funding for the semiconductor sector by FY 2040, TV Asahi reported citing sources. Australia's Agricultural Minister said testing has confirmed H5 bird flu detected in a second bird found in Western Australia. China's Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said risk of fragmented supply chains is growing and that some countries abuse use of export controls, adds China is anchor of stability and propeller of the global economy. said: Can work with all sides to build inclusive supply chains. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary, but declines to comment on particular forex rates. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) began the session on a muted footing, as markets digest the volatile geopolitical situation (see above). European sectors began the session mixed. Tech tops the pile with ASML +1.5% after it denied shipping EUV lithography machines, or any related component, to China, following US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s accusations. Citi this morning wrote “we find it very hard to believe that they would jeopardise their position in the industry”. The sectoral laggard is Construction, one of its largest constituents Holcim -1.0% (9% weighting), after RBC downgraded Holcim’s PT, citing the completion of the acquisition of Xella and an update to Q2 results model

Top European News

UK PM Starmer announces he will step down; nominations for Labour leader will open on 9th July, conclude by end-summer; will act as caretaker until new leader elected. Will fully support whoever takes over. UK PM's Chief of Staff resigns, New Statesman reported. UK Minister Smith said "I would have been very happy for him to continue", in reference to PM Starmer. UK Foreign Minister Cooper urges UK PM Starmer to resign, according to Sky News. Ireland said EU capital markets deal is possible by year end, according to FT. Italian PM Meloni called out US President Trump for “senseless”, “constant, unprovoked attacks”, while she said that Trump’s statements are completely made up and she doesn’t know why he behaves like this towards allies, after Trump told an Italian TV channel that Meloni begged him to take a picture with her and that he wouldn’t have taken it, but he felt sorry for her. Furthermore, Trump criticised Italy and its PM for not becoming involved with Iran and its nuclear threat. FX

DXY is firmer against all peers as it stabilises towards recent highs above 100. JPY is the underperformer after unsuccessful jawboning attempts, NOK holds on to gains after crude gapped higher at the re-open. USD-specific drivers are light, focus overnight was on geopolitics with US-Iran talks over the weekend whipsawing crude benchmarks. The main data point this week is PCE on Thursday, the session today sees remarks from Fed's Waller, aside from this, the session is likely to be quiet and driven by geopolitical moves in oil/yields. DXY gapped higher at the APAC re-open and rose throughout the European morning to a peak of 101.01. Since this peak, the index has slipped and now more towards the unchanged mark. UK PM Starmer announces he will step down, remaining as a caretaker until a new leader is elected (Nominations begin on 9th July). Burnham is overwhelmingly considered as the front-runner, with GBP and Gilts seeing underperformance in recent weeks. There was no reaction to the announcement from Starmer himself, as it had been widely touted in recent days/weeks, especially following Burnham's convincing victory in the Makerfield by-election. Given Burnham is nearly certain to become the next PM, focus is on his cabinet appointments, specifically his Chancellor pick. Over the weekend, the FT and Times made it clear that Miliband would be the least market friendly, citing comments from FTSE 100 executives; retaining Reeves would be the most market-friendly option, though the same outlets noted Burnham would likely want to remove the current Chancellor in a shift away from the last administration. GBP/USD -0.1% and tracking the stronger Buck. EUR/GBP +0.1%, gapped higher at the APAC re-open, but reversed most gains. JPY continues to underperform and moves further into intervention territory as USD/JPY looks towards 161.81 highs made last week. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires overnight, said they were “ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary”; not sparking a move in the Yen. USD/JPY marked a session high of 161.78, looking to the aforementioned levels to the upside; awaiting further comments from Japanese officials. South African Parliamentary Speaker Didiza plans to support President Ramaphosa’s bid to halt his impeachment proceedings. Central Banks

Japan's PM Takaichi said expect BoJ to closely coordinate with the government and conduct a monetary policy appropriately to achieve the 2% price goal. BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said takes some time for policy to have an impact on the economy. said:. Pass-through from oil prices to downstream goods has progressed somewhat rapidly. Recent easing of Middle East tensions doesn't deviate much from their April outlook. Accommodative conditions are expected to continue. Risks of price overshoot could materialise if there is a delay in the necessary adjustment in the degree of monetary easing. Will closely monitor impacts that raising policy interest rates may have on businesses and households. ECB's Escriva warns that rising oil and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict are feeding into consumer prices and could cause wage spillovers. said energy cost increases are already transmitting through areas such as transport services. ECB must monitor possible second-round wage effects depending on inflation persistence. Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%). Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%). SNB adjusts remuneration of sight deposits; lowering threshold factor from 15 to 13.5; effective August 1st 2026. Fixed Income

Fixed benchmarks are mixed. USTs in the red by around 10 ticks, but off a 109-07 trough by another five. USTs lower as a function of catch-up from the holiday session on Friday, and as the complex acknowledged the gap higher in energy at the resumption of trade after Iran seemingly shut Hormuz transit amid ongoing conflict in Lebanon. However, the updates from negotiators thereafter and as technical talks take place this week in Switzerland, points that allowed energy to retreat and gave relief to EGBs. USTs look ahead to remarks from Fed’s Waller. Bunds, as above, benefited from the energy retreat in the second half of the APAC session and are firmer by around 10 ticks, but a similar amount shy of the 126.34 high. Specifics light for the complex, no move to ECB commentary thus far, and we now await text from Lagarde at the ECON hearing. Additionally, Germany digests reports into another meeting of the pensions committee today. The main point from it being that the retirement age will increase, though not at the pace some have been seeking. More broadly, Politico reports budget progress, however, tax reform remains the major outstanding point. Last but not least Gilts, lower by 10 ticks and a similar amount of the low in 88.30-72 confines after gapping higher by 24 ticks, seemingly taking relief from numerous reports that the team around Burnham no longer saw Miliband as the favourite for Chancellor. Since, PM Starmer has resigned. He will serve as caretaker during the process which begins in three weeks and will last for no more than one week, 9th-16th July. Burnham is the clear favourite. However, the three weeks between now and the start of that process could potentially see the odds around Burnham and theoretical rivals, i.e. Streeting, change notably. Geopolitics

A very busy geopolitical weekend, which initially saw the Iranians shut the Strait of Hormuz, and it suggested that the US and Israel broke the interim ceasefire agreement amid the continued military strikes on southern Lebanon. This led Brent Aug’26 to gap higher by c. USD 2/bbl, to a session peak of USD 82.30/bbl. Attention then turned to US-Iran talks in Switzerland. The outcome of the initial talks were positive. A Qatari and Pakistani joint statement stated that US and Iran agreed to set up a de-confliction cell over Lebanon and agreed to establish a high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. The high-level committee also agreed to a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days. Following the positive mood music from the talks, Brent Aug’26 gradually moved off best levels and turned negative; currently lower by c. 1.1%, and at the bottom end of a USD 78.58-82.30/bbl range. Attention remains on further developments on the negotiation process, which is expected to continue throughout the week. For now, the heads of the delegation team have headed back to Iran, while technical teams will remain in Switzerland to follow up the implementation of the MoU. Spot gold (+0.8%) is in the green, benefiting from the disinflationary implications of the positive geopolitical mood music. XAU/USD is currently holding within a USD 4136-4221/oz range. On analyst commentary: Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40T a month in 2027. Base metals are broadly firmer this morning vs a mostly negative APAC session. Focus overnight remained on China adding US firms to its export control list and decided to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. 3M LME Copper currently resides within a USD 13,598.28-13,736.93/t range. "Confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone rose sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 total transits recorded", Kpler's Bakr reported. Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50 T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40 T a month in 2027. US Department of Agriculture announces three new cases of screwworm to take total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iraq asked operators of five major oil fields to boost output to pre-war levels, targeting output of more than 3mln bpd, while it was separately reported that Iraq intends to gradually increase oil production to between 4.2mln-4.3mln bpd, according to the deputy oil minister for upstream affairs. Qatar’s Interior Ministry reported an internal explosion at a factory in the Ras Laffan Industrial Area, although no injuries or leaks were reported. A fire occurred in Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery (631k bpd) but was extinguished. Guinea’s President Doumbouya announced a ban on raw gold exports, in an effort to boost local processing of the metal and help the domestic economy. Trade/Tariffs

Iranian delegation is set to travel to Tehran after talks in Switzerland. India's Trade Minister said they intend to secure preferential market access via a trade agreement with the US. Signing of a US-India trade agreement will take longer than expected, because the US initially imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods. China's MOFCOM issues action plan on strengthening foreign Investment; to support qualified key foreign firms listing on domestic exchanges. China added 10 US firms to its export control list including USA Rare Earths, while the Finance Ministry announcing to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. USTR Greer is to travel to India and Uzbekistan, while he will discuss the US-India joint statement as part of bilateral trade agreement talks. US Event Calendar

9:00 am: Fed’s Waller Delivers Opening Remarks DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For those in Europe and parts of the US this week I hope you can cope with the expected extreme heat. The UK is certainly not ready for what's about to hit us. I'm looking to exploit this and set up my own AI company. Aircon Installations. Please enquire for the best prices and for the IPO launching soon!

Talking of extreme heat, the latest developments out of the Middle East have turned more constructive after a highly volatile start to the weekend. Encouraging progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, has seen both sides agree overnight to a roadmap towards a potential deal within 60 days, alongside the creation of technical working groups, a de conflict mechanism covering Lebanon, and a direct communication line aimed at avoiding incidents and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. This marks a notable shift from Saturday’s confusion, when Iran suggested the strait was now closed again after Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and briefly stepped back from talks following renewed threats from President Trump, who reiterated that the US would strike again if Iranian-backed proxies in Lebanon continue attacks on Israel. Despite that rhetoric, oil flows through Hormuz have continued and even picked up over the weekend, helping to calm markets, with Brent reversing earlier gains this morning before details of the talks came through. What the overall positive weekend has perhaps taught us is that the path to a durable resolution remains fragile.

However, for now Brent crude (-1.61%) is reversing its earlier gains, currently trading at $79.27 per barrel. Asian equities are not seeing a clear trend with the Nikkei (+1.56%) notably higher, but with the KOSPI fairly flat after being up +2% earlier in the session. The Shanghai Comp is +0.18%, while the Hang Seng is down -0.98%. China's central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates for the 13th consecutive month overnight.

10-year USTs have increased by +3.2 bps, trading at 4.49% as cash trading has resumed following Friday's US holiday. 2yr yields are +4.7bps. US equity futures are down around half a percentage point but that's roughly where they were for a lot of Friday when the cash market was closed.

The main data highlights this week are the global flash PMIs tomorrow, and the US core PCE on Thursday. Elsewhere, other data of interest include the Ifo survey in Germany (Wednesday), Tokyo CPI in Japan (Friday), and CPI reports in Canada (today) and Australia (Wednesday). Note there is much speculation around whether UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will resign this week after leadership rival Andy Burnham’s by-election win last week. The Observer newspaper yesterday reported that Starmer was preparing to set out a timetable for his departure, with an announcement possible today. If true it’s notable it's happening on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote tomorrow, something the UK still hasn’t come to terms with. Since then, the UK has revolved through six Prime Ministers which alongside Brexit, underlines the immense difficulties many incumbents have in the Western World today. Everyone arrives in the post with great hopes but then the lack of growth and the financial realities hit. Until you have stronger economic growth and are less constrained by debt it’s highly likely the conveyor belt of PMs will continue.

On this, the Deutsche Bank Research Institute will be pleased to welcome you to our London offices on Thursday (11:30 refreshments for a 12-1 presentation) for a look at “Brexit 10 years on: Whats’s worked, what hasn’t, what’s next?”. I’ll be introducing Sanjay Raja and Shreyas Gopal in what looks set to be a fascinating week for the UK.

Moving over to the other side of the Atlantic, after a hawkish FOMC last week with a clear shift in style from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, our economists now have two 25bps hikes in their Fed forecast. They have warned that the US economy needed tighter policy but were waiting for the meeting to confirm the tightening view. The central scenario sees two rate increases this year, likely in September and December, taking the fed funds rate to around 4.1%, followed by a prolonged pause through 2027. Easing is then expected to resume in the first half of 2028, with around 50 basis points of cuts, potentially delivered in March and June, bringing policy back towards a neutral range of roughly 3.5–3.75%. See their piece explaining their view here.

In terms of the US week ahead, our economists expect appearances by Williams and Goolsbee on Thursday to be particularly informative. Williams, who also serves as Vice Chair of the FOMC, is seen as one of those not currently predicting a hike this year, while Goolsbee is viewed as leaning towards around 50 basis points of tightening.

Earlier that day, attention will centre on the data flow. US economists expect May personal income to rise by around 0.4% (from flat previously) and consumption to increase by 0.6% (from 0.5%). The core PCE deflator is projected to rise by around 0.37% month-on-month, up from 0.24%. On this basis, the year-on-year rate would move higher to approximately 3.44%, marking the strongest reading since October 2023 and reinforcing the narrative of persistent underlying inflation. The Fed will also release its bank stress test results on Wednesday and there is other second tier data.

Over in Europe, in addition to the PMIs, sentiment indicators in Germany will include the Ifo survey (Wednesday) and the July GfK consumer confidence print (Thursday). In France, there will be business confidence tomorrow and consumer confidence on Thursday. Finally, the ECB will release its May consumer expectations survey on Friday, with inflation expectations in focus. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde amongst others.

In Asia, inflation prints due include the Tokyo CPI for June on Friday in Japan (see our Chief Japan’s economist week-ahead here) and Australia’s May CPI due Wednesday (DB forecast for headline CPI is -0.4% MoM / 4.3% YoY). Other notable data features BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its June meeting (Wednesday), Australia’s labour force survey (Thursday) and the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates in China (Monday).

Finally, there will be a few notable earnings reports out next week, including FedEx, Cerebras and Carnival tomorrow as well as Micron and Jefferies on Wednesday. Micron is up around 830% over the last year and around 250% since the end of March with a market cap of nearly $1.3tn. So it’s becoming one to follow from the macro side.

Recapping last week, oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.

But even as inflation expectations fell, the Fed’s latest decision on Wednesday led to a clear hawkish repricing for markets. Notably, 9 of the 18 officials in the dot plot signalled there should be a rate hike this year, although new Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot himself. But Warsh did reiterate the Fed’s inflation target, pledging to return inflation to target after five years above. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan delivered a 25bp rate hike, taking their policy rate to a post-1995 high of 1%.

That backdrop meant markets brought forward their expectations for a Fed rate hike. So by the end of the week, 39bps of Fed hikes were priced in by December, up from 21bps at the start of the week. In turn, that led to a flattening in the Treasury yield curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +9.6bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) fell to 4.45%. A similar pattern was evident globally, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+2.7bps) up to 2.64%, whilst the 10yr yield (-1.0ps) fell to 2.98%.

Whilst equities saw a pullback after the Fed decision, they still ended the week higher as concern about a stagflationary shock faded. So the S&P 500 was up +0.93%, Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei surged by +7.92%, marking its biggest weekly jump since August 2024. The moves were supported by the ongoing rebound in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.26% to a new record.

Recapping last week now and oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 08:26

Tyler Durden

Summary

Actors involved

Sources

Community Notes

Community Notes

Related events

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

Iran Declares Renewed Closure of Strait of Hormuz

Iran live updates: US and Iran agree to roadmap for 'final deal' within 60 days