Will the U.S. Curtail Oil Exports as Global Prices Surge? | OilPrice.com | Iran-Gulf Crisis

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President Donald Trump may soon feel the need to "blockade" U. S. crude oil exports after those exports hit a record high recently, a trend which, if it continues, will increase the price U. S. consumers pay for gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum-related products. Nations around the world are scrambling to secure oil supplies that have been dramatically reduced by Iran's closing of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers of "hostile" countries, which include major oil exporters such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, the U. S. Navy has placed a blockade on ships from Iranian ports leaving the Strait of Hormuz, though the effectiveness of the blockade is in dispute. In an April 1 televised address, Trump said: "To those countries that can’t get fuel — many of which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, we had to do it ourselves — I have a suggestion. Number one, buy oil from the United States of America; we have plenty. We have so much." It is true that the United States is the leading producer of crude oil in the world at 13.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) as of February. For comparison, Russia, the second largest producer, supplied 9.9 mbpd as of December 2025. The United States is also the leading user of oil. It is refining 21.1 mbpd of finished petroleum products as of late April. This number (strangely) includes about 2 mbpd of what are called natural gas plant liquids, which are not part of the petroleum refinery stream. But 21.1 mbpd minus 2 mbpd is still 19.1 mbpd—versus 13.6 mbpd of domestic crude oil production—which explains why the United States has actually been a longtime net crude oil importer. The difference between those two numbers is filled in by a combination of crude oil imports and what is called refinery gain, which is the expansion of the volume of crude that occurs when it is refined. I haven't been able to find a good number for refinery gain, but the U. S. Energy Information Administration estimated U. S. refinery gain at about 6.3 percent of total throughput, which would be about 1.2 mbpd (19.1 mbpd times .063). The rest of the volume is mostly imported crude with some ethanol and other chemicals, such as butane, mixed in. Some of the products of American refineries—gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel, for example—are exported, but the United States consumes the lion's share itself. The release of oil from the U. S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in response to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting reduction in world oil supplies has temporarily flipped the United States into being a net exporter of crude oil. But that's because much of that release is going toward crude oil exports. Eventually, the SPR releases have to end. There isn't an infinite amount and the caverns where this oil is stored can't go below a certain minimum for engineering and legal reasons. And, importantly, U.S. oil producers and refineries are allowed by law to sell as much of their products as they choose to buyers around the world. And that explains why oil tankers have been pulling up to U. S. ports to fill up on U. S.-produced oil (currently around $100 per barrel), which can be sold for more in Asia, for example, where oil for immediate delivery reached $150 per barrel in early April. As long as U. S. prices remain significantly below the world price, companies that trade oil will fill up ships in the United States and sell their cargoes elsewhere. That will only serve to push U. S. prices up. At what price will the American public demand that American oil be kept at home to keep prices down? That's a question that American politicians may soon discover the answer to if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. And it's not just oil that the United States is exporting. The country is the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). That's natural gas, which is not available to the American market, and its sale abroad tends to push up domestic U. S. prices. In fact, upward price pressure is the whole reason U. S. natural gas producers sought the right to unlimited exports, so that their domestic sales price would become linked to the higher international price. Exports used to be restricted, but the industry argued that it was unfair to single out natural gas when almost all other American goods can be sold to the highest bidder anywhere in the world. The crisis in the Persian Gulf has cut off about 20 percent of the world's supply of LNG. That has only served to increase demand for American LNG and to incentivize the building of new export facilities. Again, will there come a time when natural gas prices rise so much in the United States that Americans will demand that LNG exports be curtailed to keep domestic prices down? Energy markets have been snarled by the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The result is a worldwide rush for adequate supplies. Some countries have decided to hoard their supplies in the face of such uncertainty, including China and Thailand. Will other countries, including the United States, decide in some fashion to limit exports of petroleum products and natural gas as the crisis drags on? Both China and Thailand limited exports as a precaution. Such action elsewhere may only come as a result of public discontent and even unrest. By Kurt Cobb via Resource Insights More Top Reads From Oilprice.com - Venezuela Oil Exports Hit Seven-Year High - Woodside Struggles to Secure Buyers for U.S. LNG as Pricing Backfires - Indian Oil Raises LPG and Jet Fuel Prices

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Jun 22, 2026economicUnverifiedIranChina

High oil prices drive a surge in Chinese electric vehicle sales, but charging networks lag behind

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High oil prices drive a surge in Chinese electric vehicle sales, but charging networks lag behind The war in Iran has helped reshape the global electric vehicle market, giving Chinese automakers an opening across the developing world as fuel prices surge The war in Iran has helped reshape the global electric vehicle market, giving Chinese automakers an opening across the developing world as soaring fuel prices push drivers towards electric vehicles, even as charging infrastructure lags behind a wave of imports.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping of about a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquified natural gas, first hitting Asia — the main destination for the fuels — followed by Africa. This shock accelerated a trend that was already spreading across the developing world.

In April, global exports of Chinese EVs hit a record $9.4 billion, according to an analysis by think tank Ember of Chinese customs data. Shipments surged to countries such as Australia, Brazil and regions like Southeast Asia and East Africa. China exported about 435,000 passenger EVs and plug-in hybrids in May, more than double from a year earlier, according to the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

As fuel costs rise, more drivers are switching to EVs to save money, while governments from Laos to Ethiopia are embracing electrification to curb oil imports and reduce costs of fuel subsidies. But faster EV adoption is outpacing the expansion of charging networks.

Governments and state-owned utilities in Africa are taking a leading role in building them — a model analysts say could help other emerging markets, like Asia, speed the shift away from fossil fuels. When a nation lacks sufficient charging infrastructure and EV fleet size, it is a “classic chicken-and-egg problem” regarding what comes first, said Paul Gong, head of UBS bank’s China automotive industry research.

“At that stage, government support for infrastructure could help accelerate adoption,” he said. Fuel shock drives EV use in Asia and Africa Across the developing world, drivers are looking beyond the gas pump. In Southeast Asia, imports of Chinese EVs have surged in Thailand, Laos and the Philippines.

In May, Laos banned the import of fuel-powered vehicles for the rest of 2026 to cut oil import costs and encourage the EV shift. Africa imported around 44,000 Chinese EVs in 2025, a 130% jump from the year before, according to Chinese Commerce Ministry data.

Across Asia and Africa, transport is one of the largest household expenses. Limited public transit, long commutes and a reliance on private vehicles make families vulnerable to volatile fuel prices. In South Africa, transportation accounts for nearly a fifth of household spending, according to a 2024 study by Stellenbosch University in South Africa's Western Cape province.

So, as fuel prices surge, global interest in EVs has been growing, said Mark Wakefield, with the consultancy AlixPartners. One in four new cars sold worldwide last year were electric, according to the International Energy Agency. Global electric car sales are expected to grow further in 2026 and reach 23 million, making up nearly 30% of all cars sold worldwide, according to the IEA’s latest EV outlook.

“In the next five years, we will accelerate (our) overseas expansion,” said Jerry Gan, CEO of Geely Auto, one of China's biggest automakers, at a company event in March as the auto group makes inroad into regions like Southeast Asia including selling EVs.

Chinese automakers supplied around 60% of electric cars sold globally, the IEA said. They have also been targeting Europe, Africa and Latin America. In Vietnam, automaker VinFast also logged stronger sales. Demand from Southeast Asia helped drive a 42% year-on-year increase in the company's January-March quarterly revenue.

On most mornings, Nguyen Thien Bao threads his VinFast electric motorbike through the jammed traffic of Vietnam’s capital Hanoi — ferrying passengers and deliveries. The EV bike has sharply cut his expenses as fuel prices rise. “Before, so much of my income went into fuel,” he said.

“Now, I can actually save some money.” Charging stations aren't keeping up But while EV imports are booming, charging infrastructure is still lagging even as installations have accelerated. Thailand, for instance, has around 4,600 public charging locations to serve more than 424,000 battery EVs and plug-in hybrids, according to the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand — around one for every 92 vehicles.

The country currently has roughly 12,000 public chargers, the IEA said. Chitsanupong Nuamnorm's solution is to keep his gasoline-fueled Mazda 2 for weekend trips, although the Chinese-made MG4 EV he bought on Feb. 27 — the day before the Iran war began — is saving him a lot of money.

Yutthana Samranwong, a 54-year-old driver in Thailand’s northern Phitsanulok province, says booking online for public charging ports to keep his MG4 EV running is a gamble. “It's a bit of a headache,” said Samranwong, who sometimes works with the Grab ride-hailing and delivery service.

In Bangkok, strained charging networks are prompting some drivers to consider returning to fuel-powered cars. In Malaysia, public fast chargers were up more than 70% in 2025, according to the IEA, after the government rolled out incentives to including a tax break for operators of charging points that meet certain investment criteria.

Indonesia has more than 4,500 public charging stations set up the state-owned power utility PLN, the IEA said. Ethiopia, which has banned non-EV imports, had only around a dozen charging stations as of mid-2025, and the government estimates it needs more than 1,170 stations to meet rising demand.

In the capital Addis Ababa, 40 stations are under construction, according to the state electricity utility. “In developing markets, affordability can accelerate the shift, but the pace of adoption will still depend heavily on infrastructure, power reliability and use case,” said Chris Liu, with the technology research and advisory group Omdia.

State utilities take the wheel to build charging stations In Indonesia, more than 4,500 public chargers have been deployed by its state-owned power utility PLN, the IEA said. African countries also are increasingly turning to state-owned utilities to build EV charging networks, betting public investment can solve one of the biggest obstacles to electric vehicle adoption.

“Utilities are recognizing that electric mobility will become a meaningful source of future electricity demand,” said Ndia Magadagela, co-founder and CEO of Everlectric, a South African commercial EV leasing company. There are around 2,000 public EV charging stations in Africa, with South Africa accounting for the largest share.

State-controlled utility Kenya Power plans to build 44 charging stations within the next year. But building networks of charging stations is difficult in developing markets, according to Omidia's Liu, who said grid connections and maintenance are key issues.

While BYD, for example, is expanding its ultrafast EV charging network in places like Europe, large Chinese automakers typically may have relatively little incentive to build networks outside China, he said. State-owned utilities, therefore, can play a larger role in this, according to Liu, since they are closely tied to a country’s grid planning, electricity pricing and distribution capacity.

“You need charging infrastructure to support an even larger fleet size,” said Gong, the auto analyst from UBS. ___ Olingo reported from Nairobi, Kenya, and Delgado reported from Bangkok. Associated Press writer Aniruddha Ghosal contributed to this report.

___ The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.

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Will the U.S. Curtail Oil Exports as Global Prices Surge? | OilPrice.com

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