Controlling the Strait of Hormuz is the top priority in Iran and Trump may abandon it. Here’s what that would look like | Fortune | Iran-Gulf Crisis

Summary

As Donald Trump searches for an exit from the Iran war, the narrow Strait of Hormuz increasingly looks like a labyrinth in which the commander-in-chief has no good options. Any ceasefire or U.S. disengagement that cedes control of the strait risks creating new problems, including potentially triggering a nuclear arms race among Gulf states, experts say. But taking control of the strait militarily requires massive costs and risks, including a strategic invasion that comes short of occupying the country. Trump said March 31 he wants to leave Iran in two or three weeks, hours after he vented against allies to “go get your own oil!” Continuing with the status quo, meanwhile—in which the U.S. and Israel pound Iranian targets, while Iran charges multimillion-dollar tolls to let select ships pass through the strait—could send the global economy into a recession. “If this goes on for another two months, we’re in a global recession. There’s no way around it,” Jim Wicklund, a veteran oil analyst and managing director at the PPHB energy investment firm, told Fortune, arguing the U.S. is staring down the barrel of a credit crash and sky-high inflation. Even a slight opening of the strait would bring only temporary relief. Oil and natural gas prices may fall as more traffic flows through the strait, but they would remain much higher than in February before the U.S. and Israel initiated the war, especially if Iran continues to charge a $2 million toll per vessel. “The whole world won’t stand for a long-term toll,” said Wicklund. “There will be a higher risk premium even if the strait opens tomorrow.” The U.S. must either put “boots on the ground” to take control of the narrow strait—through which 20% of the world’s oil, liquefied natural gas, and petrochemicals pass—or achieve some kind of truce that’s unlikely to last, he said. “Trump has to do something, and he has to do something soon.” Bob McNally, former White House energy advisor under George W. Bush and founder of Rapidan Energy Group, took it a step further if the U.S. were to walk away without militarily seizing control of the strait. “That would be a catastrophic setback for U.S. foreign policy interests that would, in my view, transcend even our defeat in Vietnam,” McNally told Fortune. “One would struggle to find a precedent or a parallel for what a defeat that would be.” Where we are More than a month into the slog of war, the average U.S. price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose above $4 on March 31 for the first time since 2022. California, Oregon, and Hawaii all exceeded $5. And the impacts remain much worse in the rest of the world where supply shortages are mounting in Asia, and where Europe is now beginning to see scattered fuel shortfalls. This is where demand destruction escalates in April. On March 30, Trump threatened “completely obliterating” Iranian power and water infrastructure if the strait is not opened—potentially a war crime. One day later, he lashed out at U.S. allies for not helping enough. “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!” he posted on social media. “We leave because there’s no reason for us to do this,” Trump later told reporters at the White House. “We’ll be leaving very soon.” With Pakistan and now China increasingly serving as negotiation mediators, they offered a five-point peace initiative March 31 that included a call to “restore normal passage through the strait as soon as possible.” Rystad Energy chief economist Claudio Galimberti sees a tenuous peace as the most likely outcome in the coming weeks. After all, only about 5% of the typical traffic is passing through the strait, which is not sustainable. “It would be a very fragile ceasefire. It’s very unstable,” Galimberti said. If a ceasefire only allows 50% or less of traffic to resume, then “this would be a very high inflationary scenario” for the world with oil prices likely remaining above $100 per barrel, he said. If it’s almost fully opened under a tolling scenario, then prices would fall further, but still remain well elevated above February levels before the war. That is why McNally and Wicklund see U.S. boots on the ground as more likely to see the military campaign through. They think Trump is frustrated, but mostly posturing for now. “What I think is likely is we’re going to see an intensification of combined operations—air, sea, and land—to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten Hormuz traffic,” McNally said. The doctrine effect The alternatives are much worse, McNally argued. “The Arab Gulf countries and Israel would not accept Iran’s long-term domination of Hormuz. I think it would make another conflict just a matter of time. And it’s a conflict the United States would likely get dragged [back] into,” McNally said. “I don’t think it’s a durable scenario where we just sort of leave and say, ‘Hey, cut your deals with Iran. They’re the toll keeper now. Good luck.’” The geopolitical precedent also would prove awful, McNally said, effectively canceling the Reagan Corollary to the Carter Doctrine. The 1980 Carter Doctrine said the U.S. would intervene militarily to protect its interests in the Middle East against external powers, which was in response to the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan. The 1981 Reagan Corollary, which came during the Iran-Iraq War, extended the doctrine but also pledged to secure internal stability in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia. “We would be canceling the Reagan Corollary to the Carter Doctrine, and eventually, perhaps the doctrine itself,” he said. “I think eventually a China or Russia would want to step in there.”

Related events

Jun 22, 2026diplomacyUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Iranian President to visit Pakistan on Tuesday as peace talks yield 60-day roadmap

○ 1 source

Advertisement US-Iran peace deal US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Iranian President to visit Pakistan on Tuesday as peace talks yield 60-day roadmap New Delhi,UPDATED: Jun 22, 2026 19:20 IST US-Iran Peace Deal News Live Updates: US-Iran diplomacy gained momentum after a marathon round of talks in Switzerland produced what mediators Pakistan and Qatar described as a roadmap for a final agreement within 60 days.

US Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors into the country and work on mechanisms covering frozen Iranian assets, regional ceasefires and the Strait of Hormuz. Vance said discussions on nuclear inspections could begin as early as this week, while technical teams will remain engaged even after Iran's top negotiators returned to Tehran following 18 hours of intensive negotiations.

The talks also established a communication channel to help ensure safe commercial shipping through Strait of Hormuz and a mechanism aimed at preventing renewed fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite the diplomatic progress, tensions remained visible.

Iran had briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, accusing the United States of failing to uphold commitments to halt fighting in Lebanon. However, mediators said discussions were held in a constructive atmosphere and yielded encouraging progress.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is set to visit Pakistan on Tuesday in a trip expected to focus on bilateral cooperation and follow-up discussions on Islamabad's mediation efforts. Meanwhile, a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon largely held, marking the longest lull in violence in three months of conflict.

Lebanese officials reported near-total adherence to the truce despite isolated incidents, while Israeli leaders insisted any final agreement must ensure Iran cannot use future financial relief to support military activities or regional proxy groups.

Follow IndiaToday.in for the latest updates....Read More Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to arrive in Pakistan on a one-day visit on Tuesday. (File Photo: Press TV) 2 Jun 22, 2026 19:20 IST US-Iran Deal: Iranian President to visit Pakistan Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will make a one-day visit to Pakistan on Tuesday, Iranian officials said.

Habib Abbasi, director-general of public relations at the presidential office, said the trip will focus on implementing previous agreements and exploring new trade opportunities. Pezeshkian is also expected to "express appreciation" for Pakistan's role in mediating between Iran and the United States, according to Tasnim news agency.

Jun 22, 2026 19:14 IST US-Iran Deal: Here's what happened so far - US Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iran made significant progress, with Tehran agreeing to allow nuclear inspectors, establish mechanisms for handling frozen assets and support efforts to manage regional ceasefires.

- Speaking after negotiations in Switzerland, Vance said discussions on nuclear inspections could begin as early as this week and confirmed that technical talks would continue in the coming days and weeks. - Iran’s senior negotiating team departed Switzerland for Tehran after 18 hours of intensive discussions, while technical experts remained behind to continue work on the Islamabad memorandum of understanding.

- Pakistan and Qatar, which mediated the talks, said Washington and Tehran agreed on a roadmap aimed at reaching a final agreement within 60 days and described the first round of negotiations as encouraging. - The two sides also agreed to establish a mechanism to help prevent clashes in Lebanon and create a communications channel to safeguard commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil supplies.

- The talks followed an interim agreement reached last week and continued despite renewed tensions after President Donald Trump threatened military action against Iran and Tehran warned Washington over its rhetoric. - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled to visit Pakistan on Tuesday for a one-day trip.

Iranian officials said he would discuss bilateral cooperation and express appreciation for Islamabad’s role in facilitating US-Iran diplomacy. - A ceasefire in Lebanon largely held on Monday, marking the longest period of relative calm in nearly three months of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, although isolated incidents were still reported.

- Lebanese security officials said adherence to the ceasefire had been "almost total" since Saturday evening, despite reports of limited Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon and drone flights over Beirut. - The conflict in Lebanon has remained a major test for the interim US-Iran agreement, with Tehran previously accusing Washington of failing to ensure an end to hostilities and briefly reimposing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

- Vance said progress had also been made toward reducing tensions in Lebanon, while negotiators worked to establish safeguards aimed at preventing future escalation. - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the release of some frozen assets and the launch of a reconstruction and development programme under the broader diplomatic framework.

- Oil prices, which surged after tensions disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, fell further after the latest round of talks, easing concerns about global supply disruptions. - Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described the negotiations as constructive and said the first round of talks had concluded successfully, laying the groundwork for a broader peace agreement.

- Israeli officials signalled support for a diplomatic resolution but stressed that any final deal must ensure Iran cannot use financial relief or released assets to fund military activities or regional proxy groups.

India Today World Desk

Controlling the Strait of Hormuz is the top priority in Iran and Trump may abandon it. Here’s what that would look like | Fortune

Summary

Actors involved

Sources

Community Notes

Community Notes

Related events

US-Iran Peace Deal Live: Iranian President to visit Pakistan on Tuesday as peace talks yield 60-day roadmap

Ship Traffic Through Hormuz Chokepoint Continues As Normalization Efforts Remain "Fragile"

Caught on camera: Qatar’s PM snubs JD Vance in viral video; What went wrong?

Iran's Foreign Minister Hails Progress In Diplomacy, Highlights Lebanon Ceasefire Mechanism